New research by the country's largest estate agency specialising in new homes, Hooke & MacDonald, into recent planning decisions by An Bord Pleanala shows that in the past three months the board has overturned permissions for schemes which would have provided 2,300 new homes in the greater Dublin area over the next year.

All these schemes had been approved by the local authorities after lengthy pre-planning consultations between the planners and the architects and developers to ensure that they met the demands of the local area development plans and guidelines.

In most cases, it would have taken anything up to five years to get to the position of local authority approval . . . only to be refused on appeal by An Bord Pleanala.

"An Bord Pleanala's current approach to planning is completely at odds with government housing policy and, if sustained, will significantly limit the future supply of new homes in Dublin city and county and cause a further acceleration in residential price growth" says the agency's report.

With the supply of new housing in the greater Dublin area already 6,000 short of the 23,000 homes needed annually to meet demand, a break in supply in 2006 is looking highly likely, according to Ken MacDonald, managing director of the agency, who warns that if many more schemes are refused permission on appeal, the price of a new home in the capital could soar by 15% this year.

MacDonald accuses the board of displaying "a level of insensitivity bordering on arrogance".

"The board has reversed 2,300 units in the last three months. If that trend continues, we could see 7,000-10,000 refusals over the year, which would decimate Dublin's supply.

"If this policy and this trend continues we will have a crisis on our hands in terms of supply for young buyers in the capital. It will inevitably mean prices go up very sharply. We already have a shortfall of 6,000 units, with the number of units not keeping pace with demand. Adding to this could mean new house prices go up by as much as 15% this year.

"It will mean that many young people will be priced out of Dublin. It flies in the face of government policy and simply widens the commuter belt, pushing the pressure to provide homes for young people on other local authority areas."

Hooke & MacDonald has been concerned about the number of planning permissions being overturned by An Bord Pleanala for some time and the agency's economist Geoff Tucker has been tracking the decisions over the past year.

The results of the research are due to be published later this month but MacDonald says they have already voiced concerns to the Department of the Environment about the growing trend towards An Bord Pleanala approving mainly lower-density developments in the capital's suburbs. "The department's own guidelines on density and the location of developments are being contravened. It is very alarming because these decisions by An Bord Pleanala are undermining the planners, council officials and the elected local authority representatives who have drawn up their own area development plans.

"The degree of inconsistency between the local authorities and the board is a cause of serious concern and needs to be addressed immediately.

Almost one in three decisions by the board during 2004 reversed the decision of the local authority."

MacDonald argues that unless the trend is reversed, 2006 will see a new homes supply crisis in the Dublin area.

"The board appears to believe that there is an equilibrium between supply and demand in the Dublin area and therefore lower densities are possible but that is simply not true, " says MacDonald. "There is a shortfall of new homes in the capital . . . and in the suburbs where three-, four- and fivebed houses are all around, there is huge demand among first-time buyers for apartments at a price they can afford."

Some very high-profile developments have been been refused approval after being appealed to An Bord Pleanala in recent weeks. Two were turned down in Christmas week. One was a plan by Niall Mellon's company, Earthquake, to build 364 apartments at Knockrabo, Mount Anville Road in Mount Merrion, and the second was a scheme of 159 apartments and houses off Roebuck Road in Clonskeagh, which was to have been built by O'Malley Construction.

Cork-based firm Fleming Construction must now also go back to the drawing board after their plans for 360 apartments and houses at Glencairn in Leopardstown were refused on appeal in early December.

One of the reasons for the refusal of this mixed development in the former residence of the British ambassador on Murphystown Road was that it was too far from transport links.

"Yet even before the board announced the decision, the government had given approval for an extension of the Luas line past the site. The station would have been right beside it and would have been built before the people even moved in, " MacDonald argues.

The board's reasons for rejecting schemes vary from concerns about the standard of design, to the predominance of apartments in the schemes and their distance from transport links.

But MacDonald says the concerns over design are simply not true.

"All these schemes have been designed by some of the country's leading architects and have been submitted to the planners in the local authorities who have approved them. The quality of apartment design has been improving dramatically in the past couple of years and is equal to European standards.

"The sizes of the scheme at Glencairn could not have been an issue because the average two-bed was 860sq ft . . . higher than in most developments."

Although recognising the need for An Bord Pleanala to be independent of political interference, MacDonald says the government must intervene immediately to ensure that its own planning and development guidelines are not contravened.

"These decisions could set back the supply of housing in Dublin by as long as five years.

"To resubmit plans and go through the entire process from scratch will take at least 18 months and could last for five years. The Minister for the Environment must issue a policy directive immediately to ensure that the government's own guidelines are being adhered to."