"ALL CHILDREN grow up" is the opening line of Peter Pan, and a pertinent one when it comes to the Irish property market.
Many economists are now warning that, pretty soon, the "baby boomers" and their younger siblings who contributed to the property boom of the late 90s and onwards, are now ready to grow-up.
In other words, the 20somethings of yesterday who chose city apartment living over dreary suburbia are the 30-somethings of today . . . and that three-bed semi with somewhere to park the car and a garden for junior to play in is starting to look a lot less depressing than it did a decade ago.
The trouble is, with planners now focused on providing high-density units to meet housing demand, some are questioning whether there are enough "family" homes to go round.
The well-located three-bed semi-d is in demand, and the price inflation last year reflects this. The most recent figures from the Permanent/TSB House Price Index show three-bed semis grew by 8.9% in the 12 months up to November 2005, compared to 7.3% in the same period up to November 2004, indicating that the trend towards the larger family home is definitely growing.
"We've been highlighting the fact that the young people who bought the smaller homes in the last few years are beginning to age, and many of them will be looking to trade-up to a larger home over the next few years, " says Paul Murgatroyd, chief economist with the Douglas Newman Good group of estate agents.
"There needs to be a detailed analysis done, based on how many families we're going to have in the next five or six years and how many families will have two or more children, so that planners and developers can deal accordingly with society's housing needs.
"It's not realistic to expect that planners will reverse the high-density rules for urban development, because land has to be used more efficiently."
Yet Murgatroyd agrees that developers may well have to rethink how they market family homes in highdensity developments by improving storage space to cater for buggies, bicycles and the usual paraphernalia of the average family.
He also believes they should build on-site playgrounds and communal gardens if they are ever to change that element of the Irish psyche that equates "family home" with the picture-perfect house with windows either side of the front door, a stairs, garage and garden.
"Maybe we, as a society, need to become more realistic and accept that, if we still want a traditional semidetached house with front and back garden, then we need to move further out of the city, where these homes are still being built.
"In fact, the figures show that the number of semidetached houses built in the Greater Dublin Area has actually been increasing over the last few years, although it has to be said many of them are concentrated in the outer Fingal area.
"Alternatively, we need to look at making urban developments suitable for families, " says Murgatroyd.
Marie Hunt of Gunne's research department warns that if we want to avoid another massive price boom, developers and planners need to take the demographic trends seriously.
"We've been saying it for years, but some developers are still not building enough larger homes. We've got a huge bulge of people between 25 and 44, who are naturally ageing, and many of them will want to move on over the next few years from smaller apartments and townhouses into units large enough to accommodate a family, " says Hunt.
"Developers are building a lot of mixed-use schemes these days but, within those mixed schemes, we need to see more three-, four- and five-bed family homes."
Shane Daly director with Gunne New Homes argues that some forward-thinking developers are projecting ahead age-wise.
"Adamstown in Lucan Co Dublin is a very good example of a new town which has the proper mix of one-, two-, three- and four-bed homes.
The one- and two-bed units here are perfect for first-time buyers while the three- and four-bed houses are designed with families in mind, " says Daly.
But most estate agents agree that three-bed houses, which at one time were considered entry-level or firsttime-buyer homes, particularly in newer estates in areas like Castleknock and Santry on the northside and Lucan in west Dublin, are now most definitely something to trade-up to.
Selling agent Gerry Leahy of Leahy Consultants in Leixlip says he saw a huge jump in house prices around Lucan last year, with average three-beds shooting up from the mid 200,000s to 317,000 almost overnight. And Martin Doyle of DNG in Phibsborough agrees that modern three- and four-beds in estates like Royal Oak in Santry, built in the late '80s, have seen significant price increases.
"For a long time these semidetached houses were at the 317,000 mark, but towards the end of last year, demand increased and they quickly went up to around 400,000, " says Doyle, adding that north Glasnevin has also increased in popularity with trader-up buyers. "The old estates, like Ferndale and Willow Park, built in the late '60s and early '70s, are beginning to be recognised as good family homes. A lot of buyers might like old Glasnevin or Drumcondra, but can't afford a family home here where prices range from 600,000 to 1m plus, and maybe further down the road they will be able to trade up again to these areas."
Marian Finnegan, chief economist with the Sherry FitzGerald group, has also been tracking the changing demographics.
"Yes, this is a definite trend, and something that needs to be addressed if supply is to meet the demand for larger homes, " agrees Finnegan.
"Ireland's birth rate peaked in 1980, meaning that the children born in that last year of the baby boom are now aged 26 and entering the housing market for the first time. Over the next decade they will also want to move on to a larger home, but at the same time the number of new entrants into the market will decline year on year after that, as there were less children born each year after 1980, " explains Finnegan. However both Finnegan and Murgatroyd are not worried that the apartment and townhouse market will suffer as the population ages, owing to the strong inward migration into Ireland, which amounted to around 54,000 last year.
"Many of the overseas workers coming to Ireland are coming from a culture of apartment living and they will tend to buy or rent the same type of units in Ireland, " says Murgatroyd.
Adding to the cost of the three-bed semi-d is the growing price gap between it and a four- or five-bed house.
"Traditionally people who bought three-bed homes years ago would have good equity in them and would trade up to a four- or fivebed, but with the average four-bed house in Dublin now around 700,000, some would-be buyers may just stay put and either extend their three-bed or convert an attic.
"As a result this may cause a blockage in the market, further reducing the supply of three-beds for sale, " says Murgatroyd.
"WE ACCEPTED THAT IT WAS PROBABLY GOING TO TAKE US THREE HOUSES TO GET TO OUR IDEAL HOME, SO WE LOOKED AT OUR FIRST HOME PREDOMINANTLY FROM AN INVESTMENT POINT OF VIEW "
NOT MANY first-time buyers will have been as marketsavvy as Andrew and Edel Thomas, who are trading up from their starter home to a three- or four-bed house on the southside, but their story is proof that location remains the single most important key to success in the property market.
The couple, who are in their mid-30s, decided to put location before everything else when they bought their first home. In 2003, instead of buying the largest property they could afford, they chose to max out their budget on a 518sq ft one-storey cottage, 18 Carysfort Villas in Dalkey, Co Dublin.
Thanks to the buoyant property market and the cottage's sought-after location, their home has achieved above-average capital appreciation in a very short time and the Thomases are in a position to trade up.
"Whereas most of our friends were buying bigger houses in areas further out, we decided to buy in the best location we could afford, with the expectation that this would achieve the most capital appreciation within three to "ve years, " Edel explains.
"We set out with a three-tier plan, " adds Andrew, whose background in the stock market has served him well.
"We accepted that it was probably going to take us three houses to get to our ideal home, so we looked at our "rst home predominantly from an investment point of view."
Having decided on a strategy, the couple bought a two-bed cottage for "a good price" in January 2003. Apart from some cosmetic touches they undertook, they have now put the property on the market. Estate agents Sherry FitzGerald value the listed building, which has a small rear garden, at 550,000.
The decision to trade up at this time came as much by chance as by design. "We'd been thinking about it and then we saw a larger house we liked in another good location on the southside, so we decided to "nd out if we could afford it, " Edel says.
"After we got a valuation on our house, we got in touch with Irish Mortgage Corporation.
They checked everything out for us and came back with a price range we can look at."
While buying your "rst home is considered the most dif"cult step on the property ladder, trading up can be a notoriously complex process because it involves two transactions, buying and selling.
This can result in a stressful time, since most people will have to release the equity in their existing home in order to "nance the second purchase. In most cases, this means you have to sell your house "rst and hope you "nd a new one soon after.
There is some room for manoeuvre, however.
According to Frank Conway of Irish Mortgage Corporation, banks are happy to provide closed-end "nancing to sellers when they have a signed contract for the sale of their existing property.
So far, the Thomases have found the process relatively smooth, and . . . once again, because of the location of their existing property . . . hope that their house will sell quickly, within a month to six weeks of going on the market.
They plan to buy and sell within the same spell of time and, as a last resort, will rent if they have not found a new property.
The couple have seen one or two other properties that have interested them, and are still on the look-out.
"We hope to buy a three- to four-bed house somewhere on the southside, hopefully between Stillorgan and Killiney.
"We'd like an older house, and don't mind if it is in need of some work, but we'd also consider a new build. Once again, location will be the key factor in determining what we buy, " Andrew says.
With the couple having a budget of between 700,000 and 900,000, there is a good range of potential properties in their chosen area.
Despite this not being the strongest time of the year in terms of supply, this is all part of the strategy too.
"Although this is a little before the market really gets going in spring, we're happier to be looking now, as it's less hectic, " Andrew explains.
The Thomases have also been in"uenced by the anticipated impact of SSIAs, maturing from April, believing that they'll stay ahead of the market by buying and selling before the spring property season gets fully under way.
Price: 550,000 Agent: Sherry FitzGerald 01-2751000
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