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Planning obstacles cause crisis in Dublin
Ken MacDonald



THE Irish residential landscape is changing at such a rapid pace that it is now almost unrecognisable from a decade ago and in a decade's time, it will be dramatically different from what we see today. This particularly applies to our city centres and suburbs. The Dublin Docklands and Dundrum are two typical examples. While the physical character and appearance is changing, so too is the composition of residents in each location.

The changing needs of an expanding population presents a significant challenge to those involved in providing the accommodation and associated facilities and infrastructure. A lot of people have a role to play in successfully carrying out this important function including legislators, administrators, planning authorities, developers, professionals and other building industry personnel and companies. A focused, responsible and co-operative approach is needed from all parties if we are to succeed in properly providing for the needs of each generation. Regretfully, although huge strides are being made, the level of cooperation and vision needed is often lacking from some quarters leading to blockages which in turn impact negatively on supply and prices.

There are four main categories of residential occupiers that need to be catered for.

They are first time buyers, growing families, mature couples ('empty nesters') and tenants. In past decades, particularly in the 1970s and '80s, young people and indeed retirees had little option but to live in three, four and five bedroom houses because that is what was being built. As a result, we now have a predominance of low rise, low density housing making up over 80% of suburban and residential units in Dublin and indeed stretching in a sprawl right across neighbouring counties. What a waste of our most valuable resource . . . land.

Fortunately, in the last decade there was a surge in apartment construction as their popularity grew rapidly owing to the more flexible and attractive lifestyle they offered in convenient locations near work and leisure, particularly for single people, couples and retirees.

These are now the main drivers of demand in the new homes market. Forty-three per cent of our population, aged 15 plus, were classified in the 2002 census as single and this is predicted to approach 50% before the end of the decade. Yet only 12% of households lived in a purpose-built apartment in 2002, thus indicating the considerable potential for the future expansion of this type of accommodation.

Many of the young homebuyers of five to 10 years ago are still living in the houses they purchased either in the suburbs or in neighbouring counties.

Some have settled well in these areas while others, frustrated with long commuting times have moved back to the city. Others who purchased city centre apartments are still there. In many cases, they have started families and have stayed in the city, upgrading to larger apartments in the variety of new developments that have sprung up across the city and Docklands. They have been facilitated in doing so by the fact that their original apartments have sold well at strong prices, contrary to negative predictions of some parties over the years.

Much of the growth in population that has taken place over the last decade is in the home-buying 25-34 age group, the majority of which are first time buyers. In 1995, there were 512,000 people in this category. Today, there are 681,000, an increase of 169,000 which answers the question for those who wonder where the buyers coming from.

Fifty- three per cent of the population is now under 34 years of age. This shows why first time buyers are dominating the residential market at present. It is also interesting to note that the CSO are predicting that the number of people in the 25-34 age category will increase by 47,000 over the next five years and will still be ahead of present record levels in 10 years time.

These forecasts are likely to prove quite conservative, especially when the influx of immigrant workers is taken into consideration.

Another important grouping, those contemplating trading down to smaller accommodation, whose children have moved on, in the 55+ age category, will increase by 272,000 over the next decade to 1.147 million. These will prove to be increasingly active in the property market and will need to be provided for.

While most suburban locations in, say, South Dublin and Dun Laoghaire Rathdown have a predominance of family type accommodation, it is desirable that in other locations that may be deficient in this type of accommodation, taking future needs into account, adequate residential units should be provided which will be suitable for families with children of all ages.

Dublin city centre and the Docklands come into this category. This requires well designed apartments, rather than conventional houses, with provision of good open space and community facilities.

The population figures show the magnitude of the task in providing the right quantity, quality and type of accommodation that is required now and over the next decade. Will we succeed in doing so?

The indications are that we can succeed in provincial areas but a major question mark hangs over Dublin.

There is demand for 23,000 new homes annually in Dublin but in 2005 there were only 17,000 units completed showing a deficit of 6,000 units.

New home starts/registrations in Dublin last year were down 16% from 18,714 to 15,656 while the rest of the country was up 11% from 42,068 to 46,632.

The reason for the growing housing crisis in the capital is mainly down to the planning obstacles that are becoming increasingly difficult to overcome. We have the bizarre situation where An Bord Pleanala in the past three months alone has reversed decisions of the local authorities to grant permission for 2,300 new homes, contravening government housing policy and guidelines and widening the commuter belt. The board has overturned decisions nationally over the last two years by over 8,500 new units.

The fact that the 2,300 units refused in Dublin were very well designed by leading Irish architects following 12-18 months of consultation and consent from local authority planners and must now go back to the drawing board is very bad news for aspiring home-buyers as the resultant new homes shortage is pushing prices up in both the new and secondhand sectors.

The quality of apartment design has improved dramatically in recent years and is now comparable with top European standards. All in the building industry are in favour of high quality sustainable developments with continually improving standards but there is no need why this should be at the expense of home-buyers and the national economy.

Hopefully, the problems being encountered with the board and some other blockages will be overcome very soon and all concerned can get on with the challenges ahead. In 10 years' time, I believe that we will have one of the best cities in the world with an abundance of leisure, sporting, cultural and other attractions.

It is already thriving, spurred on by the vibrancy of our young population and by the visionary plans of the government, Dublin City Council and entrepreneurial developers and architects.

Dublin Docklands Development Authority has also done an excellent job but regretfully an opportunity to maximise scarce land use has been lost with the low rise restrictions in their master plan.

We are rapidly running out of land in Dublin and unless we quickly embrace a high rise approach with maximum land utilisation (high density) we will be condemning future generations to a lifetime of travel.




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