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Optimistic Anglo in �?�416m share placing
Niall Brady



ANY fears that the wheels could come off the Anglo Irish Bank juggernaut were laid to rest on Thursday morning when it raised a record 416m in a share placing.

The biggest transaction of its type by an Irish company, the 33 million new shares are equivalent to 5% of the bank's share capital. And they were snapped up by investors eager to buy more of the Anglo story, sending the shares up 10c to 12.80 by close of business on Thursday.

The scramble shows the optimism that, even after doubling the loan book in the past two years, Anglo can continue to power ahead.

"It's extremely unusual to place 5% of your shares and see the price rise on the day, " said Scott Rankin, banking analyst at Davy Stockbrokers.

He described the placing as opportunistic, with Anglo taking advantage of a record share price to raise capital.

The shares have been on a roll, touching 13 since the start of the year, up from 11 as recently as mid-November. Having called investors' mood correctly, the bank had no trouble getting the placing away at 12.40.

"You never raise capital the day you need it, you always raise in advance, " said finance director Matt Moran. "It's a real statement of confidence in the future. We just believe the opportunities in each of our core markets are compelling."

This typically upbeat message will be underscored by chairman Sean FitzPatrick when he addresses shareholders at the bank's annual general meeting in Dublin's Conrad hotel on Friday.

The size of the placing surprised some, especially as it comes on the heels of a 600m debt issue in 2004 and another 450m issue of debt capital only last summer. But the consensus is that the bank needs the money to continue its breakneck lending growth rather than to plug any holes in its finances.

"The timing is a little unusual, " said Eamonn Hughes, banking analyst at Goodbody Stockbrokers. "But, all in all, we would read this placing as offering a major clue of an optimistic Anglo management rather than any concerns on the balance sheet."

None of the money from the placing has been earmarked for acquisitions.

"We do not believe there are any imminent acquisition plans and the capital is being raised to fund organic growth, " said Mark Thomas, analyst at Keefe Bruyette & Woods in London. "This reflects confident management."

There is some justification for this confidence. The bank had 6bn of approved loans in the pipeline at the end of September, bringing it some way towards hitting its first-half lending targets before the year had even begun.

But a slowdown must come sooner or later. Anglo management argues, with some justification, that it is in a league of its own. But the bank's fortunes are inextricably linked to the commercial property market, which, by any reckoning, must be at or close to the top of the cycle.

"Demand for commercial property is going to ease in all of the markets in which they operate, " said Rankin. But even in a tighter market, he believes there will still be a lot to play for in the UK and especially the US, where Anglo remains a relative minnow.

Of the total 34.4bn loan book at the end of September, the UK accounted for 12.5bn and, despite 80% growth during the year, the US accounted for only 2.5bn.

"They've got a tiny percentage of the overall market in the UK and the US, " Ranking said. "They're still really small in the order of things."

In cracking these much bigger markets, he believes Anglo will be able to play the same card that has brought such success at home . . . its focus on business banking to the exclusion of all else.

"Its business model is its strongest asset and it would be hard for anybody else to replicate because that's all it does, " said Rankin.

Because Anglo does not engage in speculative lending . . . it gives money only when borrowers already have tenants lined up . . . Rankin believes it should escape unscathed from a property downturn. Indeed, it would probably take a full-blown recession . . . one severe enough to drive many of these tenants out of business . . . to hurt Anglo.

But investors could feel the pain if there was a slippage in lending momentum. The shares trade at a premium, no matter which peer group you use as a benchmark, and this could vanish if Anglo were to stumble.

Having smashed through previous price targets, NCB Stockbrokers took the unusual step of downgrading the shares in recent weeks. For now, investors have placed their full confidence in management but this could begin to crumble at the first sign of bad news.




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