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Key choices and murky clouds face Fyffes
Aine Coffey



IN THE NEXT three weeks, Fyffes management faces its next big decision: whether to appeal the ruling by Judge Mary Laffoy that DCC and Jim Flavin did not engage in the insider dealing which the fruit company alleged reaped an 85m profit for DCC.

The marathon civil case ran for 87 days last year, with total costs estimated at about 20m. Fyffes' loss is now set to prove costly. On Friday, Judge Laffoy ruled that the fruit giant was responsible both for its own legal costs and for 80% of DCC's.

The loser in an Irish civil case normally pays all costs, but Judge Laffoy ruled that DCC was liable for 20% of its own costs because its decision to contest whether Flavin dealt the shares had "added considerably to the complexity and duration of the case".

The judge ruled in December that Flavin was not guilty of insider trading, but found that DCC did deal the shares.

Fyffes now has 21 days from when Friday's order is perfected, most likely tomorrow, to decide whether to appeal.

A spokeswoman for Fyffes said the company's management "will consider where they stand and will make a decision".

The DCC issue is not the biggest uncertainty Fyffes management faces in the coming months. The bigger picture is also veiled in a rather murky cloud. Fyffes' core European banana market has been transformed since the quota system was overhauled at the start of this year, and 2006 could be a tricky trading period.

NCB rates the stock a 'hold'. Equity analyst Liam Igoe of Goodbody Stockbrokers has had a 'reduce' recommendation on it since November, reflecting concern about the outlook for the banana market. He forecasts that profit in Fyffes' tropical fruit division will fall by two thirds in 2006.

"You have an environment where there are no longer banana quota restrictions, so you don't know how much will be imported into Europe, or how this will affect pricing, " Igoe said. The early signs are that pricing is being hit, he noted, as prices are down on where they were this time last year. "For margins to be maintained, prices would need to have increased."

Fyffes is due to report its full-year results in March, and Goodbody is predicting profits of 80.6m in the tropical fruit division, up from 48.9m in 2004. This would make 2005, when banana pricing was exceptionally strong, the best year ever for the division.

But Goodbody is forecasting that tropical fruit profit will fall to 25.6m in 2006.

"It's a stab, " Igoe said. "There is poor visibility."

In what is being seen as only a step in what will have to be ongoing diversification, Fyffes last week bought 60% of Brazilian melon company Nolem, which exports 9m boxes of melons annually and has net assets of 11.3m. Igoe judged that last week's acquisition fitted "snugly enough" into Fyffes' tropical fruit division. "It's not a big deal, but it looks like a decent business."

The banana regime is not the only arena on which Fyffes investors would do well to keep a weather eye. Another factor influencing share price will be the performance of the new quoted company into which Fyffes plans to spin its property holdings.

Some pundits have suggested that this plan is already buoying Fyffes stock.

With the share price down by nearly 13% over the past 12 months, it looks as if more than that will be needed.

Fyffes closed at 2.18 on Friday, off a 12-month high of 2.70 last September.

Large-scale merger and acquisition activity may also be in the offing over the next 12 months. "Fresh Del Monte has effectively put itself up for sale, and Fyffes will certainly be a contender there, " Igoe suggested.

Fresh Del Monte is the biggest producer of melons for the UK and the US, the world's largest pineapple producer, and the third biggest player in bananas.

Given that the potential price tag on Fresh Del Monte could be up to 1.5bn, one possibility could be a merger in some shape or form. If Fyffes does not grow aggressively, it may also find itself a takeover target. Dole, which is now privately owned, made a bid for the fruit company fifteen years ago.

In domestic circles, Fyffes has been the subject of swirling rumour and speculation over the past few months, including predictions that it will no longer be quoted on the Irish Stock Exchange by the end of the year.

Among the gossipy nuggets has been speculation that lawyer and dealmaker Noel Smyth had accumulated control over 10m shares in the group.

Smyth has roundly denied stake-building, and management at Fyffes has denied having any meetings with him.

Still, it all helps to keep things lively.




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