Whatever private reservations there may have been, nobody so much as arched an eyebrow when Mary Wallace's name was announced as a de facto replacement for Ivor Callely. The taoiseach didn't look for comment and nobody offered it. He and ministers quickly moved on to discuss the issues that were on the cabinet agenda. The calm before the storm.

The first indications that the announcement was not going to run smoothly came a couple of hours later at 12.30pm, during a phone call between government chief whip Tom Kitt and Sean Haughey. The son of Charles Haughey and grandson of Sean Lemass would have been quietly confident that, after 19 years patiently serving his time in the Oireachtas . . .

including the last 14 in the Dail . . . his promotion would finally come. But the news from Kitt was not good.

The chief whip told Haughey that it had been a very tight race, but that he had not got the nod on this occasion. Kitt went on to say the taoiseach would be in contact in due course and that Haughey should bear in mind that further changes were expected in the junior ministers' ranks after the 1916 celebrations at Easter. It is understood that he added that Haughey was top of the list at the moment, but there could be no guarantees.

Haughey was amazed at the news. His reaction was curt and to the point. He told Kitt to tell the taoiseach that he would have to consider his position and the conversation quickly concluded.

Two hours on, the taoiseach stood up in the Dail to announce that Wallace, whom he had failed to reappoint in 2002, was now being returned to the junior ministerial ranks.

A beaming Wallace was sitting a few rows back, understandably delighted by her promotion.

It quickly became apparent that Sean Haughey was far from the only backbencher not sharing in her joy. "Gobsmacked", "bewildered" and "amazed" were a few of the reactions from his colleagues.

It didn't take long for the initial surprise to turn into cold anger.

It wasn't anything personal, but Wallace was not a popular choice for elevation. Dubbed "Wednesday Wallace" by colleagues because of her perceived poor Dail attendance record, she is widely perceived to have, in the words of one senior Fianna Fail figure, "sulked" since her demotion almost four years ago. A few months after the 2002 general election, media reports suggested Wallace was boycotting the Dail . . .

something the new minister has denied in recent days.

There are also reports that she bluntly refused an offer of a chair of an Oireachtas committee from the taoiseach.

And it was an open secret that relations between her and Ahern had been virtually nonexistent since then.

Yet it was she, and not Sean Haughey or Dublin North TD Jim Glennon, whom the taoiseach was promoting.

More than one TD privately complained that keeping your head down, doing the work in the Dail and committees and generally being a team player seemed to matter nothing.

However, most of them agree that if Wallace had been nominated by Ahern a few days after Callely's resignation, it would not have generated anything like the same controversy.

Instead, there was an inexplicable two-month delay in making an appointment, during which time the taoiseach made no effort to deflect the media spotlight from the two men widely believed to be the clear front-runners for promotion.

While there is a feeling that Jim Glennon's time will come sooner rather than later, TDs felt that Haughey . . . one of the best-liked deputies in the Dail . . . had been left swinging in the wind by Ahern.

It is obvious that Haughey himself shares that opinion.

During a brief pre-Christmas phone call between the TD and the taoiseach, it is understood Ahern said he knew Haughey had been trying to contact him and he knew what it was about but there was no hurry and they would talk in the new year.

Those close to Sean Haughey say that if Ahern at that point had indicated that he was looking elsewhere, Haughey would have accepted it. But while the two men didn't talk since then, sources say all the signals from people close to the taoiseach, right up to last Monday, indicated Haughey would be chosen.

Until, that is, the phone call from Tom Kitt that left Haughey "amazed and baffled". Haughey has a reputation for being quiet and a gentleman, but his reaction to the news showed more than a hint of steel. He was not prepared to be taken for granted any longer.

Haughey met with close associates and on Wednesday they decided he would give one interview to RTE Radio One's News at One and leave it at that. It was a clever strategy.

On the programme, Haughey managed to be extremely dignified and yet cutting, particularly in his comment that there "has to be more to politics than electoral advantage".

He also echoed his earlier comments to Kitt that he would have to consider his future in the Dail, given his treatment.

Any chance that the reshuffle debacle would be a oneday wonder had disappeared.

And suddenly Haughey was getting the attention of the taoiseach. A spokesperson for Ahern said the taoiseach would be happy to meet with Haughey to discuss the decision not to make him a minister of state.

In his constituency, the reaction was enormous, as hundreds of messages of good will flowed into his office. The reaction in Dail Eireann was that Haughey would be unlikely to stand down from politics. But those close to Haughey point out that he has another option.

He can contest the next general election, but not as a Fianna Fail candidate.

Friends stress that this is just one of several options that the deputy will reflect on in the coming weeks. They say that the last thing Haughey wants to do is come across as some sort of spoiled child. However, he will do what is in the best interests of his constituents.

And they note that, in a finelybalanced Dail, an independent TD can have far more influence than a backbencher. At the very least, Haughey has given Ahern and his advisers something to mull over.

Haughey is not the only TD to feel let down by the taoiseach's handling of events.

Pat Carey, another highlyrespected TD, expressed his disappointment at being overlooked. Minister of state Sile de Valera is also understood to be very hurt at the speculation surrounding her possible return to the back benches.

De Valera informed Ahern of her intention not to contest the next general election but it is understood that during that meeting no mention was made of de Valera standing down from her ministerial position.

Although nobody contacted her to discuss her future, reports started appearing in the media that she might be stepping aside, something that sources say infuriated de Valera.

Nor is her mood likely to have been improved by Ahern's comments on Clare FM that it is the norm for retiring ministers to step down in advance of an election. Most people who know de Valera say that if Ahern had offered her the chair of the 1916 commemoration committee, she would happily have stepped aside, but that didn't happen and the way the whole thing was handled simply got her back up.

The taoiseach is making an unfortunate habit of botching up reshuffles; his appointments of senior and junior ministers in 2002 and 2004 also succeeded in infuriating large sections of his party. In both years, there was a lastminute change to his cabinet line-up as he caved in to pressure to keep ministers that he had planned to demote.

But there is undoubtedly method to the apparent madness. The criteria for promotion are clear. TDs must serve their apprenticeship (apart from the taoiseach, who was promoted within a couple of years of being elected). Everyone elected is equal, regardless of ability and brains, and hence has an equal chance of getting the nod. Some loyal colleagues are rewarded but so are some opponents, based on the old Don Corleone adage about keeping your friends close and your enemies closer.

Electoral considerations are also of huge importance and there is little doubt that, in terms of the next general election, the taoiseach believed that Meath East, rather than Dublin North Central, needed a high-profile junior minister more. There are even suggestions that Ahern feared that Wallace would not contest the next general election if she were not promoted.

Despite the dire warnings that his appalling handling of the reshuffle will mark a seminal point in his leadership, the reality is that Ahern is untouchable. It's not just that the polls show he is still a major electoral asset, or the fact his two most likely successors are completely loyal to him.

Time is on his side. If Fianna Fail loses the next election, he will stand down. If it is returned to government, he has signalled that he will be taoiseach for a couple of years before stepping aside for a younger man or woman.

TDs may be angry now but they will spending the next 15 months concentrating on saving their seats and eyeing the prospect of another reshuffle should Fianna Fail hold power.

But while the damage is unlikely to be lasting, the galling thing for the government is that there didn't have to be any fall-out at all if the taoiseach had gone about his business the right way.