It's hard to think any other way about Arsenal's prospects as they prepare for Tuesday's first ever competitive game against Real Madrid. Even though this is the sort of tie relished by players and supporters alike, it has probably come at a bad time.

If the game had been scheduled for a fortnight after the end of the group stages when Arsenal's injury list was shorter and when Madrid were struggling for form, the picture might have looked different. But now Arsenal go to the Bernabeu with trepidation while Madrid have a much improved work ethic under their new manager Juan Ramon Lopez Caro.

Everyone connected with Arsenal would have expected more from the season so far, however, injuries have meant that it has been virtually impossible to field the same team each week. Lauren is a long-term casualty, Ashley Cole and Sol Campbell will definitely miss the first leg in Madrid, and there are doubts over both Jose Antonio Reyes and Gael Clichy.

The arrival of new players such as Emmanuel Adebayor and Abou Diaby during the transfer window has been a positive development, but they've needed time to settle in, and the understandable acclimatisation has been compounded by the fact that one or two of the seasoned pros such as Robert Pires and Freddie Ljungberg have failed to reach the heights of previous years.

Equally, the uncertainty regarding Thierry Henry's future represents a cloud hanging over the club, and the longer it goes on without him agreeing to a new deal, the darker that cloud becomes.

Against the backdrop of a team going through a difficult time, Kolo Toure will be the only first-choice defender in the side on Tuesday. Once again, Arsene Wenger will probably have to rely on makeshift full-backs, choosing two from Mathieu Flamini, Sebastian Larsson and Emmanuel Eboue, while Philippe Senderos is likely to be marking Ronaldo. It's asking a hell of a lot of so many inexperienced players given the quality of the opposition.

Even if the demands of the occasion will be far greater than the younger players have become used to in the Premiership, the emphasis will be more technical than physical. So while Arsenal won't be roughed up like they were at Bolton, the midfield will have to deal with Zinedine Zidane, and whoever is at left-back will have to prevent David Beckham from delivering his trademark crosses. Wenger will no doubt be hoping that Jens Lehmann reproduces the form he showed last week at Anfield, because he's likely to be busy.

No one gave Liverpool a chance going into the knockout stages of the Champions League last season because their domestic form was so poor, and we know what happened. Admittedly, Liverpool's defence grew in stature, but more importantly, they discovered a belief that had been previously lacking, so if Arsenal can defy the odds and get a draw in Madrid, a performance like that would be evidence of the spirit necessary to go on and win the Champions League.

But if Arsenal are eliminated, the club and its supporters will be contemplating a season unlike any over the past 10 years. Out of contention on all fronts in early March, and far from certain of finishing fourth in the Premiership. So the games against Madrid will be pivotal, and a 1-0 defeat in the first leg would be considered a great result.

With Campbell and Cole possibly returning for the second leg at Highbury, the balance will have shifted.

Against that, Madrid will be determined to put the tie beyond doubt on Tuesday.

Wenger will have to get the tactical emphasis right between the overwhelming need to keep the tie alive, and risking the occasional counter-attack. Madrid are always vulnerable at the back, and if Henry is at his very best, Arsenal could steal a goal.

And that's what Barcelona will be hoping to do at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday. While I expect Barcelona to have learned some of the lessons from last season by defending better at set pieces, it's just not their style to sit back and absorb pressure.

Barcelona may have idled a bit in recent weeks, but Ronaldinho was suspended and Samuel Eto'o was away on African Nations duty, so expect them to be highly motivated for the games against Chelsea. They badly want to win the Champions League, and knocking Chelsea out along the way would make the victory all the more sweet.

Right now, Barcelona are the most skilful side in Europe, and to counteract that, Chelsea are quite prepared to leave the Stamford Bridge playing surface in its current poor state. As they showed recently at Middlesbrough, Chelsea are not the super team so many people make them out to be, especially when they're expected to win, but when a game has a real edge, they are invariably impressive.

They were excellent at Arsenal and at Liverpool earlier in the season, and even when they lost to Manchester United, I still thought they were very good. By announcing losses of £140m (sterling), they clearly don't inhabit the same world as the rest of the Premiership clubs, but Jose Mourinho and his players have the sort of desire necessary to win the Champions League.

While Ronaldinho is difficult to stop, I think you'll find that Claude Makelele will be in close attendance when the Brazilian's on the ball.

Chelsea have the edge, and with Didier Drogba . . . who has proved me wrong this season . . . and Hernan Crespo, Mourinho might have the attacking partnership to go all the way in the competition.

As with Real Madrid and Arsenal, the first leg will be critical. Barcelona will have to defend much more competently than when they conceded four goals in last year's game at Stamford Bridge, but they will also be looking to score.

With their premium on skill, I would prefer Barcelona to win, but in the way that Madrid have the advantage over Arsenal, Chelsea should go through.