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Perfectly playing the expectation game
Malachy Clerkin



There's an old episode of The West Wing in which Martin Sheen's erudite, word-geek President Bartlet is running for re-election against a down-home, good-ol'-boy character from the deep south of America. Bartlet's opponent is such a plain-spoken, tells-it-like-the-sheriffwould caricature that it's hard to ever work out a way to see him beating the garrulous president in the preelection debate until the press secretary points out that he's playing the expectation game perfectly.

"It's at the stage now where unless he accidentally sets the podium on fire, he'll have done better than expected, " she says. "If the whole thing about him is that he can't tie his shoelaces and it turns out he can, then that's the ball game."

It's a clever idea and one that doesn't just work in fictional presidential campaigns. The more you think about it, the more inspired an appointment Steve Staunton becomes from the FAI's point of view. Imagine for a moment that John Delaney had managed some face-time with Martin O'Neill back before Christmas and that the Derryman's circumstances and inclination had brought him to agree to take the job. Chances are, he'd have announced more or less the exact same first squad as Staunton did on Thursday, give or take a Liam Lawrence here and a Wayne Henderson there.

The difference is the level of expectation. It's not difficult to imagine that the frisson of excitement caused by such a selection made by O'Neill would have been palpable. Martin O'Neill thinks these young fellas are the real deal? They must be, so.

Staunton clearly thinks they are but because we hope for great things from him rather than expect them, the reaction is comparatively muted. It's like we've turned into a nation of Stans. Cagey, cautious, not getting carried away. The countrywide Dundalk accents are surely only a couple of friendlies around the corner.

A fresh start this may be, but the reality is that the retirements since November and the relatively shallow pool of replacements would have pointed any manager in this general direction. For proof, we need only look at the list of players apparently unlucky not to have made it.

Gary Doherty. That's it.

And even then, he'd probably have made it had his phone been working when Staunton called. And even now, he'll probably still make it with John O'Shea likely to have to pull out through injury.

Joey O'Brien, Stephen Ireland, Kevin Doyle, Stephen Kelly and even Liam Lawrence (passport permitting). These are players whose time has come. The question now is how much of the hog the new manager is prepared to go. O'Brien and Ireland could conceivably be the established central midfield partnership by the time the 2010 World Cup arrives.

Notwithstanding the fact that Graham Kavanagh has probably earned the right to wetnurse one or other of them through the Euro 2008 qualifiers, it would be a brave statement of intent to send them out wearing six and eight on Wednesday week.

As for Kelly, he must hate the sight of Stephen Carr by now almost as much as Carr seems to hate the sight of, well, just about everybody.

Just as he appears to be finally moving up the pecking order, Staunton says that provisional talks with the Newcastle right-back have been "encouraging". At this rate, Kelly could take until his 30s before his caps tally makes it in to double figures.

Both Liam Miller and Jonathon Douglas deserve another go, even if it isn't especially encouraging that they're two of seven lowerleague players in the squad.

Add to that the fact that the highest representation from any one club is the three that Sunderland have contributed (and it could well have been four had Mick McCarthy given Staunton his seal of approval on Daryll Murphy) and we're not exactly talking stellar territory here.

But no matter. This time last year, Brian Kerr sent out a first 11 wholly made up of players holding down first team places in Premiership teams to beat Portugal 1-0 in a Lansdowne road friendly.

And look what happened to him.

The danger of raising expectations.




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