WHAT is the difference between toast and the Welsh rugby team? At least you can make soldiers out of toast. That beer hall mutiny/putsch by the Welsh troops last week was a mixture of Animal Farm and Animal House. Harvey Weinstein has been banging on the door of WRFU looking for the rights.
"Listen you guys, you gotta give the rights . . . we've got Steven Seagal to play Mike Ruddock, Michael Douglas to play Scott Johnson and seeing Gareth Thomas will be doing f**k all for the next six months . . . he can play himself!" Hollywood wouldn't know what to make of it.
Player power is great . . . if the coaching strictures/structures are wrong, emancipate yourselves. If there is a personality issue, liberate yourselves. But with power comes responsibility and that translates on the pitch into accountability. The devil's own hot poker is being readied if the Welsh don't perform.
The most cruel lies are often told in silence. None of Ruddock's players stood up and supported him. A flaccid acknowledgement that Ruddock was a singularly decent and personable man . . . last year's moments stood for nothing. The squad did not want him and he was dispatched. To some degree they were right . . . it's very hard to reconcile the difference between, say, Leinster under Ruddock and Wales under Ruddock. The stuff that Leinster played under Matt Williams was radically different to the stuff they played under his Welsh successor . . .
Scott Johnson has been Wales's de facto coach since Ruddock was installed as 'Coach'. The team were full of brio in 2005. Their mode of play was diametrically opposed to Ruddock's notion of how to play the game. The players moved quickly and went straight to the chief executioner . . . it's all over now.
The lawyers have brought it to reductio ad absurdum.
It's a very different job going from number two to number one. It's a completely new set of rules. Scott Johnson has talked the talk extremely well but can he do what Matt Williams couldn't?
The first question you have to ask is will this debacle galvanise or destabilise the Welsh squad. I think it will galvanise them. I'm pretty sure that Johnson will get a performance out of them.
They at the very least will be competitive in all phases for the full 80. Ireland though could win it in the injury minutes. Either way it will be a close game between two evenly-matched sides and this test match might actually be a match.
For Ireland to win they need to engineer a good start.
In their last four real test matches against New Zealand, Australia, Italy and France Eddie O'Sullivan neglected to impart some important tactical information to his team, that being that the match had actually started and they were allowed join in and compete. Ireland, even in the 2005 championship were slow to start, and we have to go back to 2004 when we last saw something like a greyhound out of a trap.
It's very easy to say let's go 15 points up after 10 minutes or let's put them under real pressure from the off. It goes without saying. You must think through how to do it . . .
the fundamentals always apply, particularly at home. To make any visiting team feel uncomfortable you must achieve the following in no particular order of importance.
1. Put extra effort into getting your maul going early.
2. Real venom in the tackle for the first 15.
3. Make sure the game is played in the Welsh half.
Those three points are so obvious that you would wonder why the Tribune are paying me 750,000 p. a.
It is vitally important that the home team control the ball early on. If the visitors sniff a bit of time in possession and they use it well, they are effectively in the game. Consider what Ireland did early in the game against Italy, they faffed around in midfield, made targets of themselves and effectively gave the Italians an 'in' into the match.
France did the same, effectively dictating the pace of the game without the ball. If you are under the cosh from the off and points down, it's hard to creep your way back into it.
You don't need an engineering degree to engineer a good start, common sense and concentration will suffice. The start only lasts for 10 minutes, Ireland can play volleyball if they want after that.
What else do Ireland have to do? Well, they have to guesstimate whether the Welsh will play the rush defensively.
France, when they scored their first try through Aurelien Rougerie, showed how to beat the rush. When Cedric Heymans came in off his wing to make an intervention outside David Marty he took the ball at pace, but he took it 11 metres behind where Freddy Michalak received it from Jean-Baptiste Elissalde . . . that sort of depth will beat the rush any day. But Ireland will align flat and close and they will try and flick long cut-out passes at outside centre through Brian O'Driscoll to both wings. Ireland tried it five or six times and it either went forward or hit the linesman in the testicles. It is a high-failure percentage play but if you get it right, you've beaten the cover and you should score once or twice.
You would expect with the level of skill Ireland have that they should get it right 50 per cent of the time but zero per cent against the French means the play works or it gets scrapped after today.
Ireland defensively are superior to the Welsh and they can win the game purely by keeping their concentration as the Welsh go through the phases, necessity being the smotherer of invention. Hopefully they will be more adventurous than that. Conversely I hope they don't get suckered into a game of high-tempo silly ball. I don't see a huge amount of quality outside of Stephen Jones.
Gavin Henson is on the bench today. I often see things on Ceefax or no-byline copy which starts off the column saying, "Lions star Henson".
My recollection of a Lions star is a test player who consistently out-performed against any SANZA side and won a series. Henson's performance in New Zealand was God-like. A lot of stuff done was unseen and if he did anything it was a f**king miracle.
I really hope he gets a run today.
O'Driscoll needs to come alive today. His lieutenant, Paul O'Connell, is injured and his pack once again lacks a real leader. O'Driscoll must think his way through the match because teams with a little bit more nous and savvy edge the tight games, which I expect this to be. This is the pivotal game of the season . . .
they can challenge England for a Triple Crown in Twickenham if they wrestle control from the off. Champions get it right early. Ireland's champion player must show the way.
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