PRICE and heavy promotion are paying off so far for Associated Newspapers' newly-launched Irish Daily Mail.
The tabloid's 30c price tag appears to have helped it snaffle thousands of readers from other newspapers in the Irish market. It is believed to have daily circulation figures in excess of 70,000 after its first month on the stands.
Officially, Associated Newspapers are remaining tight-lipped about figures, but Irish chief executive Paul Drury said he is "very happy". "We're looking forward with great confidence to the monthly ABC figures, " Drury said. "Our own indications are that they will confirm that we are selling in excess of our own original prediction."
Associated Newspapers' original public prediction was for sales of around 40,000 copies, with market-watchers making more conservative forecasts of 20,000 upward. Pundits suggest the 1m advertising campaign coupled with the discounted sale price explain much of the Mail's initial good fortune.
Joe Dalton, media director at advertising agency AFA O'Meara, suggested that the 70,000 circulation could be a temporary phenomenon, and that it is too early to assess the tabloid's impact.
"It's being driven by promotion and price, but it is early days and you could argue that this is a promotional figure."
Paul Moran, head of media buying agency Mediaworks, agreed that price is playing a large part in the early success. "Ultimately, why people are buying it is simply a price proposition."
Before the launch of its new Irish edition, the Daily Mail sold about 10,000 copies in Ireland. Sources within the newspaper suggest that it has taken around 10,000 readers from the redtops, but that still leaves around 40,000 copies to be accounted for.
The low price is likely to have encouraged some to have bought the newspaper as an additional read. However, neither that factor nor incremental growth fully explain the newspaper's sales. Someone is suffering.
It is too early to say what titles have been hit, particularly as the circulation figures for indigenous Irish newspapers are based on a six-month average, compared to the monthly figures for UK papers selling in Ireland, leaving it difficult to make direct comparisons.
Six-monthly average figures tend to hide the immediate impact of any new launch or promotional offer.
Moran believes the Daily Mail's entry is being felt both by tabloids and broadsheets. "In one respect, the red-top titles would be more susceptible to a price war.
At the same time, the editorial offering is more along the lines of the Irish Independent and the Irish Examiner, so I think the effect is across the board."
Imported mid-market UK titles, such as the Express, could be feeling the pinch, he feels. "There are quite a number of these titles that would have circulation ranging from 4,000 to 8,000 per day. I would be surprised if it is not hitting them by at least 40-50%."
The newspaper least affected by the low-cost offering is likely to be the Irish Times, he said. "Its readers are prepared to pay for the offering it is."
The Irish Daily Mail is understood to be selling well both in the Dublin area and Munster. Anthony Dinan, group managing director of Examiner publisher Thomas Crosbie Holdings, said that the newspaper had not been affected. "We have niche markets and I don't think the Mail is in our niche, " said "We don't appear to have been hit."
Nevertheless, the group is in the process of a major recruitment drive for the Examiner, suggesting that it is gearing up to respond to the challenge. The Irish Independent has responded to the new entrant both by new promotional measures and by bringing in new columnists and a new health section.
Much of the Irish Daily Mail's early success however is being put down to price, where the red-tops are vulnerable, rather than to the newspaper's offering.
It is unblushingly going after a female readership. Traditionally, the other tabloids, with their heavy emphasis on sport, have attracted mostly males.
While the circulation figures have exceeded expectations of media pundits and even Associated Newspapers itself, questions are being asked whether the paper can continue the strong run, particularly if it raises its price.
The newspaper has already upped the price of the Saturday edition to 50c, and claims that there has been no impact on circulation. Sources in the Mail camp said the Saturday paper is the best selling, averaging more than 100,000 copies.
That toe in the water price hike could be a forerunner to a general rise, though it is understood that there are no immediate plans to up the price to the 75 cent at which the Mail retailed here before its relaunch.
"It will be interesting to see for how long it can sustain the price, " Moran said. "Our initial thought is that it may go up to 70c in the near future. If it increases to 70c, I would see circulation slipping back to 50,000-55,000."
That figure would still be regarded as a reasonable proposition in the advertising market and the feeling is that Associated Newspapers will wait until autumn, when the paper is established and the market more buoyant, to start targeting Irish advertising revenue.
A 70c price and a circulation of around 50,000 over a sustained period would most likely still leave the newspaper in the red. But that might not mean much.
Associated Newspapers has already demonstrated elsewhere that it is prepared to suffer protracted losses to achieve its end goal.
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