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A marriage made in the midlands



IT MAY be something of a marriage of convenience, but Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte looked like the genuine article last week as they publicly took their relationship to the next level. Up to now, their courtship has been quite oldfashioned . . . a first meeting in Mullingar (where love stories begin), a few dates over coffee, and eyeing each other across a crowded Dail chamber.

But it was clear last week that despite . . . or maybe because of . . . the slow build-up, a chemistry has developed between Kenny and Rabbitte of the kind that probably hasn't existed between Fine Gael and Labour leaders since the ill-fated 1973-77 'government of all talents'. The shoulder-to-shoulder body language was typical of any betrothed couple. Kenny came across as suitably attentive. Rabbitte, meanwhile, showed a ready willingness . . . not always present in the past, some would say . . . to share the limelight.

It augurs well for the future, although it is early days in sorting out the pre-nup. It's pretty easy, as they did last week, to come up with joint policy documents on government spending and Irish emigrants.

Nobody is going to say that wastage in public spending is a good thing, while everyone agrees with helping Irish people living abroad who have fallen on hard times.

Far bigger tests lie ahead . . . a point demonstrated by the conflicting positions the two parties have recently taken on bus deregulation in Dublin, and the sale of Aer Lingus and the Great Southern Hotel chain.

However, politics being politics, a deal will be done on a policy programme. If John Bruton and Dick Spring could agree to coalesce in 1994 after spending so long as ideological opposites, then two arch pragmatists such as Kenny and Rabbitte can certainly do so.

Fine Gael and Labour badly need to be in government. It is almost 25 years since Fine Gael won an election. Failure to do so again will re-open the questions about the party's long-term future that Enda Kenny had succeeded in answering.

For Labour, the glory days of 1992 must seem like a long way away. Every one of its TDs will be over 50 by the next general election and the prospect of adding another five years to the decade spent on the opposition benches cannot be an appealing prospect for genuine talent such as Rabbitte, Eamon Gilmore, Brendan Howlin, Joan Burton and co. Since the PDs have begun contesting general elections, Labour has spent just four-and-a-half years in government, compared to the more than 13 the PDs will have chalked up by next year. Michael McDowell is right when he says it's the smaller party that sets the policy direction of a coalition. By that criteria, the PDs . . . with three times as long in government . . . have left Labour well behind over the past two decades.

The problem for Kenny and Rabbitte, however, will not be in agreeing a policy platform, but whether or not they will ever get to consummate their new relationship. When the big day comes, most probably in May next year, will the two be able to perform?

The odds, the playing pitch and history, are stacked against them. In order to win government on their own, Kenny and Rabbitte's parties will have to win 30 additional seats . . . a virtual impossibility. Even by extending their relationship to include the Greens, the Rainbow would still need an extra 24 seats. A jump in seats of this magnitude has never been achieved in a general election. Even in 1981, when Fine Gael and Labour overturned a massive Fianna Fail majority, the two parties' gain was 20 seats, but that was helped by an increase in the Dail's size at that election from 148 to 166 deputies.

Little wonder then that the Greens seem decidedly nervous about the prospect of a menage-a-troiswith Fine Gael and Labour. Despite their public stance about getting the current government out, privately, many Greens seriously doubt if the Rainbow will be able to overturn the massive seat differential and believe their own party shouldn't rule out the prospect of coalition with Fianna Fail. The Greens will play hard-to-get until they see what suitors the general election throws up.

Pat Rabbitte, however, knows from the last general election that his party simply cannot afford the luxury of playing the field. With no little courage, he has staked his future on building a relationship with Kenny and Fine Gael. Despite the aforementioned difficulties faced by them, the early signs are encouraging. At the very least, Rabbitte and Kenny have ensured that there will be no repeat of the 2002 cakewalk for Fianna Fail.




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