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HERMES: THE VIEW FROM ABOVE ON IRISH CORPORATE LIFE



PADDY POWER FACES MASSIVE MACHINE BILL THE UK budget has thrust a double-edged sword in the direction of bookmaker Paddy Power in the form of an annual licence fee to be imposed on betting terminals.

From 1 August this year, UK bookmakers will have to pay £1,965 ( 2,850) for each fixed-odds betting terminal (FOBT) on their premises. FOBTs are essentially slot machines playing games such as poker and blackjack, which are programmed to pay out a set percentage of the money they take in from gamblers. Hence the term "fixed odds".

The machines have proven popular with punters in the UK, and are a fixture in betting shops around the country.

Inevitably, FOBTs have come to the attention of British chancellor Gordon Brown who, in a widely predicted move, has now legislated for an annual levy on the terminals in to boost the country's tax take.

Crunching the numbers, Goodbody Stockbrokers' analyst Neil Clifford has calculated that Paddy Power will have to make a payment of £487,000 ( 706,000) this year based on a figure of four FOBTs per shop across its 62 store chain in the UK. Paddy Power's UK estate is still young. Many of its UK shops are open less than three years and most are yet to make a profit so the 706,000 outlay will not be helpful.

The consolation for the company, however, is that the licence fee will hit its rivals much harder. While the vast majority of Paddy Power's stores are still in FOBT-free Ireland UK rivals William Hill and Ladbrokes have a much higher dependance on FOBT income and are facing payouts of £12m and £15m respectively.

FDA DELAYS DECISION ON ELAN'S DRUG APPROVAL Elan investors will be kept on tenterhooks a little while longer, after the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said last week that it has decided to extend the review period for the company's Tysabri multiple sclerosis drug.

The stock slumped over 8% in Dublin on Wednesday on the news. The additional review period of up to 90 days will give the FDA time to discuss a risk management plan for the drug with Elan and its joint venture partner BiogenIdec.

The news obviously caused some further jitters in what is a volatile Elan stock. But analyst Orla Hartford with NCB said last week that the FDA decision to extend the review period was "not too surprising" and is still rating the stock as a 'buy'.

Elan was also named in an anti-trust suit last week.

Maxi Drug, which trades as Brooks Pharmacy in the US, took the case against Biovail, Elan and Teva Pharmaceuticals, claiming they entered into an agreement for selling generic versions of a Bayer drug in violation of relevant laws. Maxi Drug is seeking damages.

Last week investment bank Morgan Stanley said it was ceasing coverage of a number of stocks including Elan, as it cuts staff and refocuses some coverage on Eastern European markets.

STRONG IN&M RESULTS FAIL TO LIFT SHARES Bumper results from Independent News & Media, including a 40% jump in profits to 272.5m before tax, failed to excite the market and the shares lost 7c or 2.6% of their value in the hours following the earnings release.

The troubled UK market was the main culprit according to Brid White of Merrion Stockbrokers, who has trimmed her forecasts for the current year.

"Both aspects of the UK division [the UK Independent and the Belfast Telegraph] continue to face challenging conditions in 2005 and it is a reduction in our forecasts for this division from 21.5m to 17.7m, a 17.7% decrease, that accounts for the bulk of our forecast reduction, " she said.

Tricia McEvoy at NCB Stockbrokers has also scaled back her forecasts.

"Clearly the UK operations remain a drain on the group's resources with a turnaround still someway off, " she said. "Meanwhile all the other regions - Ireland, South Africa and Australasia - continue to meet or exceed expectations but their performance, in particular the stellar performance of South Africa, is being overshadowed by ongoing challenges in the UK market."

Following a challenging first half for distribution and services group DCC, Davy is forecasting doubledigit earnings growth in the seasonally more important second-half for the company.

Full-year results are likely to be released in midMay and the broker's price target of 21.50 which was issued earlier this month suggests there is decent upside in the stock, said Davy analyst Florence O'Donoghue, citing the likely momentum provided by its second half performance. And with the company constantly pursuing complementary bolt-on deals, future forecast revisions have upside bias, said O'Donoghue.

Sentiment towards DCC has been positive in recent months. In January Goodbody upgraded its price target on the group for the second time in a month, revising its target from 18.50 to 20 on the back of an improved outlook for its IT, healthcare and energy divisions.

While the first half may have been tough, DCC did beat forecasts by reporting a smaller fall in first-half earnings than expected by the market.

A strong finish to the second half bodes well for the company.




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