THIS week, Aer Lingus management is expected to bring its final solution to government. To crush stirrings of national nostalgia, chief executive Dermot Mannion blanketbombed the airwaves last week.
Mannion's message on both Primetime and the Pat Kenny Show was that it's time to stop sobbing in the celtic mist. An IPO is the "best prospect any time soon" to get the 400m in fresh equity Aer Lingus needs to buy aircraft, he told Kenny. That's apart altogether from the 200m in sale proceeds needed to shore up the pension fund.
It now looks likely that Cabinet will make a final decision within a couple of weeks. Mannion previously indicated that a decision would be needed by the end of March to get the show on the road in time for a June IPO. A little slippage mightn't derail things, but it's skin-of-the-teeth stuff.
As it gets down to the detail, the unions and the sentimental are still banging on about alternatives including an injection of government funds into Aer Lingus. It's a crazy red herring.
Government hasn't a notion of injecting money into Aer Lingus. Even if it did, state ownership is the last thing Aer Lingus needs.
What was so good about the good old days? Run for management and staff, Aer Lingus charged through the nose until forced to compete by Ryanair. The airline nearly went bust twice, once in the 1990s and once after 11 September 2001. Flag carriers that can't cut the mustard go out of business. Nice uniforms only go so far.
Expect more drilling home of the message that a sale is as much about commercial freedom as cash. The idea is that commercial freedom will enable Aer Lingus to open up more direct routes, so the days of sitting around in Heathrow will be over.
But that doesn't mean the precious slots will be sold.
That's another red herring Mannion has worked to puncture. He told Kenny "our Heathrow operation is profitable, continues to be so and I don't see any realistic possibility, either in public or private ownership, that that situation is going to change".
Another myth is that as an island nation we are in particular trouble if we lose state ownership of our flag carrier. This argument makes no sense. A sop will be thrown to the sentimental quarter, with protection of the brand sure to figure in the package. Apart from that, whatever happened to competition and commercial nous?
Look at the routes Aer Lingus has been opening: they have largely been holiday routes to serve existing demand. With the EU-US Open Skies agreement looming, Aer Lingus will need to compete with other carriers building routes to and from Ireland.
No planes, no new routes.
No new routes and we can kiss goodbye to the shamrock.
In the end, it will come down to money. Over the coming days, the fine detail of the pension solution will be inked. The plan is that as well as the 200m in sale proceeds pumped into a new fund to be drawn down in the event of a deficit in Aer Lingus' existing fund, there would also be a commitment for increased contributions, if necessary, by both the airline and its employees.
The unions will bark, but in the end they will bite the company's hand off.
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