GETTING delirious about last week's predictions by NCB that one in five of the population will be migrants in 2020 mightn't be wise.
NCB predicts that our population will grow to 5.3m in 2020. Its report estimates that net inward migration will average 53,000 in the coming five years, before falling to 25,000 by 2020.
Housing production will average about 60,000 units until then. We will need 3m cars. NCB forecasts increasing demand for everything from pensions to entertainment.
All very well, but who will those propping up the economy be? Are they the same one in five, bedding down, buying houses? Or will Ryanair keep carrying transitory populations who come for a while and return home with their hard-earned money?
Patterns may change. Central and eastern Europe is fighting a brain drain. Lithuania last week initiated moves to raise its minimum wage. The fight-back is only starting.
Cautionary voices have warned that the Irish economy is already overly dependent on construction. Last week, economist Jim Power reiterated concerns about the predominance of the sector, given that housing construction is associated with growing debt. Maybe we need to ask whether we are building anything that will last.
Maybe it will come true, and Ireland will end up home to a constant influx of migrants settling for a brighter future. If that's the reality, then someone should tell Irish property investors. Investors have been flocking into eastern European markets to take a punt on buoyant growth. If no-one is going to be left living there, maybe they should give it all up and pour even more money into property at home.
|