Industry insiders remain cautious about Channel 6's prognosis, on whether it will be able to turn a profit from a televisionland that gives Irish viewers the option to watch dozens of stations serving up a similar diet.

The channel is aiming to capture a core audience in the 15-34 age bracket. It's perhaps the most fickle of markets, but also provides the biggest potential payback. As well as the string of US programmes being bought in, Murphy says Channel 6 will be investing 2m in homeproduced programmes.

The goal is to get a cut of the 287m Irish television advertising spend, and there are positive indicators. Channel 6 has signed up Tiger Beer as a 'long-term' sponsor of its drama night . . . a three-hour mid-week slot.

And investors are making optimistic noises.

"You'll have a fixed cost base and once you start getting advertising, television channels can become quite profitable, " says Maurice Roche, general partner with Delta Partners, which pumped over 3m into the channel in a fundraising that drew other investors including the Gowan group, owned by the Maughan family and the Barry's Tea family in Cork.

Roche says Delta believes Channel 6 management will be able to create a product "with real strength". He predicted that the venture capital firm could have several options open to it when it looks at exiting. "There has been a lot of consolidation in the television industry in Europe and in the US, and it's not inconceivable that there might be interest from either region in a station such as Channel 6 in a number of years."

Another investor, ACT Venture Capital, which is into Channel 6 to the tune of 5.2m, sings from the same hymn sheet.

"We did the numbers and the slice of the pie we want isn't that large, " said ACT director Walter Hobbs. "People have been put off before by the power of RTE, and even TV3 found it hard to get launched, but now it's commercially profitable. Michael Murphy did a very convincing job when he pitched to us and we're quite relaxed about our investment."

Looking on with interest at Channel 6's progress will be TV players such as David Harvey, who said recently that his fledgling City Channel is already at a stage where it is not losing money.

City, which has expanded outside Dublin to include Galway and Waterford, is expected to deliver revenue ahead of target for this financial year, possibly as high as 1.6m versus initial projections of 1.2m. The venture began with just 500,000 in funding.

Harvey still has some obstacles to overcome to satisfy his advertisers, and has been in discussions with AGB Nielsen, which collates viewership figures. The agency can provide audited figures for City Channel from a national perspective, but does not yet provide figures that reflect its local base.

A local viewership figure would allow City Channel to finetune its advertising rates, bringing more money into the coffers. Harvey has also had initial discussions with a major cable operator about the possibility of replicating his model in mainland Europe, a move that could propel Harvey's enterprise to a very different level.

There's no doubt that television is a tough business though. While TV3 now makes an operating profit, it has taken time. Some industry insiders question whether 14m will be enough to see Channel 6 through to such a profitability or break-even position.

Last year, Channel 6's prospectus said that it will reach break-even by year four . . . a target still believed achieveable by Murphy. The prospectus forecasts that Channel 6 will, by its sixth year, attract in excess of 10m a year in advertising sales and sponsorship revenue, generating operating profits of 9.2m.

The targets may be ambitious, but the ability of Murphy and co-founder and investor Pat Donnelly to drive the business can't be underestimated. Donnelly's pedigree in the advertising domain bodes well, while Murphy has previously worked for TV3 on programming during its launch phase.

The critics are split on the potential of Channel 6, as they were upon the launch of TG4 and TV3. Both succeeded, but TG4 has a share of licence-fee revenue to pep up its domestic production and TV3 has been able to benefit from airing audience-pullers such as Coronation Street and Emmerdale.

Murphy and his backers argue that TV3 is effectively a simulcast of UTV, an argument TV3 would dismiss.

With Canwest's 45% stake in TV3 up for sale, further changes in the television landscape are certain. ITV itself is currently the subject of a takeover bid, adding further uncertainty to the cauldron.

For Channel 6, meanwhile, there's an awful lot to prove before that 14m bank balance is whittled away.