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A country swept up in a mix of blood, oil, poverty, faith, greed and corruption



SIX YEARS ago, as the world was preparing to face into the new millennium, Nigerians took to the polls to elect a new president.

Regardless of the result, the election was a hugely significant event for a country which had not had civilian rule for 16 years.

More than six years on, Olusengun Obasanjo, the winner of that vote in 1999, remains in power. And while he is quick to point to various reforms, critics argue that Nigeria is still facing the same problems . . . widespread corruption, mass poverty and ever-increasing ethnic tensions.

If anything, these ethnic tensions have intensified during Obasanjo's rule, even if this is not always directly related to his administration. A Christian of Yoruba extraction, Obasanjo was accepted by all of Nigeria's major ethnic groups when he first stood for election. Indeed, he was more popular with northern groups than with his own southern-based Yoruba grouping, due to a lingering resentment over his handling of his own succession in 1979 when, stepping down as military dictator of the country, he handed power over to a government dominated by notherners rather than by Yorubas. While Obasanjo won the northern vote, he actually lost the south-east Yoruba vote.

However, times have changed. When Obasanjo stood for re-election in 2003, he won the southern vote but lost the northern vote to a Muslim candidate. Since then, relations between north and south have deteriorated further, a process no doubt hastened by a worldwide heightening of tensions between Muslims and Christians in the wake of the Iraq war.

A total of 15,000 people have been killed in religious or ethnic fighting in Nigeria since Obasanjo came to power six years ago. Some of the worst fighting took place in the north of the country in 2000, when more than 2,000 people were killed after eight states introduced Sharia law, a strict Muslim legal code which Christians felt discriminated against them.

Serious rioting also broke out during the Miss World competition in 2002 and, more recently, following the publication in European newspapers of cartoons depicting the Prophet Mohammad. Some of the worst rioting took place in the southern part of Plateau State, in central Nigeria. It is estimated that up to 3,000 people have been killed in this region since 2001 in violent clashes between Muslim and Christian communities.

As with many 'religious' conflicts, the dispute in Plateau State is essentially a political one being played out along religious lines. The conflict stems from disputes over land and political and economic privileges between ethnic groups.

While these disputes have not always led to conflict, violence erupted in September 2001, when 1,000 people were killed in just six days of intense rioting.

A report last year by Human Rights Watch was highly critical of both federal and state governments in relation to that conflict. The report claimed that government were too slow to step in, "allowing the conflict to spiral out of control". The organisation also warned that the situation could deteriorate further in the run-up to the national elections scheduled to take place next year.

Corruption, too, remains a huge problem in Nigeria. The legacy of colonial rule ensured that many African states inherited a culture of class division, where the select few benefit while the masses suffer. Nigeria was no different, and the country suffers from a culture of widespread corruption. Obasanjo has launched a high-profile 'war on corruption', but critics argue that this has been focused more on political rivals than on the political circle that surrounds him. Results have been slow . . . for many years, Transparency International rated Nigeria as the second most corrupt country in the world, whereas now it is third. Baby steps, indeed.

Transparency International highlighted the police and the political parties as the main focus of corruption in Nigeria, and many ordinary Nigerians remain highly suspicious of the security forces.

All these problems have merely added to the misery of millions of Nigerians who live in abject poverty. It is estimated that 60% of Nigeria's 130 million people live below the poverty line, earning less than one dollar a day. The spectre of poverty haunts the country, as can be seen by the countless shanty towns lining the streets of Lagos.

Inside these communities, people live in aluminium shacks, with many surviving only off the proceeds of fishing or the farming of a few chickens. It is poverty at its rawest, and it shows no sign of improving.

Indeed, the life expectancy in Nigeria has actually fallen since 1999, standing now at just 46 years of age.

While the economy, officially at least, grows by 5% a year, little of this growth is seen by the majority of citizens. The Delta region on the south coast of Nigeria is perhaps the best example of this. Although the area is rich in oil . . . Nigeria is the world's eighth-largest oil exporter . . . none of this wealth is seen by the people of the region. Western oil companies have ensured that the locals hardly benefit financially from the natural wealth of their own land. The z rape of Africa's natural resources by the West has come to public focus over recent weeks, when locals working on oil rigs in the region have taken European and US colleagues hostage.

The dispute over the distribution of earnings from the oil industry, an industry that accounts for 95% of Nigeria's foreign-exchange earnings, is one of the major concerns of the International Monetary Fund, which has committed to debt elimination . . . as long as Obasanjo continues to reform the economy. The debt deal will still result in Nigeria repaying $12bn to the international community. One look at the slums of Lagos and the crisis in the Delta and one could argue that the international community has already had its pound of flesh from Nigeria.

In the meantime, a lot rests on Obasanjo. Under the terms of the constitution he enacted, the president can only hold two terms of office. However, a constitutional review group is currently examining this and is expected, under his guidance, to recommend the lengthening of the potential presidential terms to three. This would enable Obasanjo to run in next year's election, a move that would be greatly resisted by many and would inevitably lead to bloodshed.

Should he triumph . . . in an election that, under the terms of his own constitution, he should not be allowed contest . . . Africa's most populous state may have to brace itself for a further deterioration in relations between the country's 250 seperate ethnic groupings. Over 130 million people wait with bated breath.




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