Research carried out by political analyst Odran Flynn shows a sharp decline in the population of rural areas, and confirms the growing urbanisation of Irish society.

Of the country's 3,400-plus electoral divisions, 1,648 showed a drop in population between 1986 and 2002, the date of the last census. The decline is most noticeable along the western seaboard, with areas such as north Mayo, west Clare and Kerry particularly badly hit.

However, while Flynn's research indicates a growing level of urbanisation, his figures also show declines in significant areas of the country's major cities. The greatest population growth is in areas around cities and big towns . . . suggesting widespread urban sprawl . . . but large tracts of Dublin, for example, show a decline in the number of people living there.

"If you look at the figures for Dublin, there is an increase in the inner city population, due to the growth of apartment developments along the quays and the concentration of immigrants in those areas. However, older established areas such as Clontarf, Glasnevin, Cabra and Terenure have populations that are declining quite dramatically, " Flynn said.

The same trend exists in Cork . . . where the likes of Turner's Cross, Mayfield, Glasheen and Togher show a decline . . . Limerick and Waterford. However, in Galway city, the vast majority of electoral divisions show a rise in population.

"West of the Shannon, " Flynn added, "it's quite clear that, apart from the larger urban areas, the population is decreasing sharply. If you take Belmullet in Mayo, in every electoral division bar one, the population fell. In southwest Clare, all bar three areas showed a decline. And in Kerry, there's a whole area east of Tralee where it is the same story."

In contrast, Flynn noted, along the eastern seaboard, from Dublin to Wexford, virtually every electoral division showed an increase.

Asked why he believed there was a decline in more established residential areas of the country's major cities, Flynn said it was because there was less room for new development in those areas.

Furthermore, many families had grown up and in houses where there had been five or six people living, there were now just one or two. "You do have a more ageing population in settled areas. There are 436,000 people over 65 in the state and 30% of them live alone, " he said.

Flynn believes that the new census, due to take place in two weeks' time, will reinforce the trends identified in his research. "The census is likely to show the population at around 4.2 million . . . an increase of 300,000 in just four years. But despite this increase, I expect the trend will be similar, with around half of the electoral division showing a drop in the population. You may even see a situation where the number of areas with a declining population will exceed those that are increasing."

If this trend is confirmed, Flynn says it will pose major challenges for the government in providing and maintaining infrastructure and services . . . such as hospitals, care for the elderly and schools . . . when so many areas are suffering from declining populations. "If the population continues to be concentrated in this manner, the government will have to increasingly focus its spending on services and infrastructure in urban areas.

That in turn will have the effect of pushing people towards urban areas to access those services more readily."