THE possibility of the Labour Party forming a government with Fianna Fail after the next general election became a much more real possibility following two unrelated events last week . . . the promotion of Ruairi Quinn and Brendan Howlin in Pat Rabbitte's frontbench reshuffle and his fascinating interview in the current edition of Magillmagazine. Let's deal with the magazine interview first.
"My understanding is that you'd resign as leader before you'd go into government with Fianna Fail", Magill'sAndrew Lynch asked the Labour leader. "That's not my electoral strategy, " Rabbitte replied.
He then goes on to present his firstchoice coalition option . . . government with Fine Gael. "Going into government with Fianna Fail is not consistent with my strategy of electing a Fine Gael-Labour government, " Rabbitte said, adding: "You can draw whatever conclusions you want from that".
The obvious conclusion is that up to polling day Rabbitte will honestly commit to working alongside Enda Kenny for their alternative coalition arrangement, but after polling day, if they don't have the parliamentary numbers, then all bets are off and all options are open. Interestingly, Rabbitte did not seriously respond to Lynch's question: "So there'll be no Fianna Fail-Labour government under your leadership?"
Prior to the 2002 general election, Rabbitte made it very clear that he would not serve in a Fianna Fail-Labour coalition.
He has now changed his tune. "No one wants to talk about the positive side of my electoral strategy. Everyone wants to know what I'm ruling out. I'm ruling in Fine Gael and Labour".
The next few months will tell whether or not the Kenny-Rabbitte combination can excite the electorate enough that they'll be prepared to dump Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney out of office. There are real issues on where the Fianna FailProgressive Democrat coalition has failed to satisfy the demands of voters. Transport, childcare and the health services are top public priorities. It's utterly pathetic that after almost a decade in power, and unprecedented money at their disposal, the Tanaiste can describe the problems in the Accident & Emergency services as an "emergency".
The challenge for the alternative arrangement is to present a coherent set of alternative policies, not just variations of those which dominate the current government's thinking. So far, all we've seen from Fine Gael and Labour are joint polices in soft areas such as Oireachtas reform and financial planning. It's only when Kenny and Rabbitte get down to the bread-and-butter alternatives that their contribution can be properly judged.
If the voters' verdict on the alternative is negative, then Rabbitte has now signalled he will go elsewhere to give the country a stable government. The restoration of Ruairi Quinn and Brendan Howlin to prominent positions on the Labour frontbench could make that process a lot easier. Neither Howlin nor Quinn are signed-up members of Rabbitte's electoral strategy. They have, however, shown a loyalty to Rabbitte by not challenging his belief that forging an early alliance with Fine Gael is the best way to deliver government for Labour.
As revealed in this newspaper last January, Rabbitte and his team of advisors have been poring over TNS/MRBI focusgroup research on public attitudes to their party. The market research showed that spontaneous recall of Labour's role in previous governments was low. The party was seen as "untried in the realm of legislating and managing a national economy".
The promotion of Quinn and Howlin . . .
two experienced cabinet ministers who've held a variety of portfolios in several different coalition governments . . . will help in overcoming the experience problem.
Rabbitte has been shaping his political message to the focus-group findings. The research, which was received last December, indicated that immigration was a significant voter concern. A few weeks later, the Labour leader made his controversial comments about work visas for migrant workers and the fear of 40m Poles arriving on Irish shores. The focusgroup research also showed that one of the key barriers towards voting for Labour was its association with the trade union movement.
At the conclusion of the focus group sessions, the TNS/MRBI researchers asked the participants to write a short epitaph for the party. "I talked a lot. I had good comebacks. I nearly made it, pity you never gave me the chance, " one participant wrote.
The research team concluded of the epitaph exercise that it showed the respondents wanted Labour to succeed in bringing back the two heavy-hitters that are Quinn and Howlin . . . and leaving open what he described as a "hugely narrow clink of light" in relation to Fianna Fail. Pat Rabbitte may last week have given himself a chance.
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