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Credit where credit's due for emissions firm
John Mulligan



AS OIL prices continue to soar, Bill Haskell gets a warm, fuzzy feeling.

The chief executive of emission credit trading firm Agcert, he knows that when oil gets too expensive, cheaper coal gets used instead to generate electricity around the world, boosting business for the market for the Dublin-based firm. That's the theory, at least.

Listed on the AIM, Agcert has been installing equipment on a string of largescale farms, largely pig breeders, throughout Latin and South America as well as Canada, to help the owners process and dispose of vast quantities of animal waste. That reduces carbon emissions, generating credits, which Agcert then sells to large corporations and governments to help them meet their requirements under the Kyoto Agreement.

To date, its customers include industrial giants such as BHP Billiton, the world's biggest mining firm, as well as Electricite de France and Canada's Epcor power company. The credits can't be sold to US corporations, and Agcert doesn't operate there, as the country is not a signatory to the Kyoto Agreement.

Since its flotation in March last year, Agcert's market capitalisation has almost doubled to over 592m.

Haskell admits that at first it was a bit of a tough-sell to farmers and representative groups that it first approached.

There was a bit of pushback, " he said, ?but they want to meet environmental compliance regulations." He said that many of the farms have been threatened with being shut down because they're polluting water tables.

We give them a waste management system that doesn't pollute."

Agcert shoulders the cost of installing the equipment, while farmers get a supply of methane from waste decomposition that, in the majority of cases, is sufficient to provide 100% of their farms' power requirements.

The process also produces organic fertiliser.

?We're taking a problem from them and given them access to a revenue stream, " said Haskell.

The potential for Agcert's expansion is really only hindered by capital availability, according to Haskell. Earlier this month, US power company AES said it had bought a 9.9% stake in Agcert for 40m, while also giving Agcert advance purchases worth 60m.

Haskell says that the biggest risk to the company's prospects remains regulatory issues.

We have seen a lot of risk eliminated, but there is still risk there, " he said. Things are running a lot smoother now from a regulatory point of view than they were a few months ago, but the proof for us is in actually getting our product out."

The price of each CER (Carbon Emission Reduction) credit that Agcert is selling has also risen sharply.

The price has gone up by a factor of four since the beginning of last year, " he said.

Even if the price stays at about 10 or 15 per credit, I think we've got a heck of a good business."

Investment bank Morgan Stanley said in a report earlier this year that if CERs reach a price of 25, the fair value for Agcert's stock would be £10 . . . a price that would almost quadruple its market capitalisation to roughly 2bn.

The price of the credits is driven by supply and demand, and at the moment, Haskell says, there is a ?significant" shortage of supply.

The market is hundreds of millions of credits short of where it needs to be, " he said. One of the alternatives for companies to purchasing credits may be to switch from using coal to gas to reduce emissions, for example, but the cost of doing that is pretty high."

For now, Agcert continues to roll up its sleeves and ramp up installation of its socalled biodigesters at farms. Over 400 sites are now operational, while preliminary agreements have been signed with hundreds more.

The company now just has to hope that the ice caps keep melting.




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