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Just one winner in a dogf ight
Neil Francis



I LOVED this cartoon displayed at the bottom of this page. I think it is quite apt considering what is ahead this afternoon. The dude in the beard is some cosmic Lord of the Rings Galactico . . . poor fella, he never stood a chance.

The Leinster Galacticos have been playing some stratospheric rugby recently, cosmic even. It is no coincidence that the scene of the crime is O'Connell Street.

Let's jump to the here and now. The Munster dressing room. Paul O'Connell is talking to the troops . . . a superior player is always distressed by his want of winning. He makes clear what he requires from the day. Nothing less than the supreme effort. He looks around and he sees three other Lions in the huddle with him . . . a somewhat tainted currency but still a badge of standing. Everyone in the huddle has worn green, everyone has been in this situation before. Does one of them dare to play below the level of intensity required to subdue their opponents?

No. You can be certain that all of them will perform. More importantly, you can be sure it will be done in steel-tipped harmony. They will be asked to look into each other's eyes and make a comparison with their Leinster opposition.

Bryce Williams, Will Green, do they have it in them? How many of that Leinster front five would get into the Munster front five? How many of that Munster pack want it less than their opposite numbers?

All eight? Game over so.

Let's go into the Leinster dressing room. It is in these moments when you know what you are made of. The questions are being asked. We know that numbers five to eight have the right stuff; numbers one to four, well, we're not sure. These guys will decide the game.

You know that in the Munster dressing room nobody looks around and asks, "Who packed my parachute?"

Because they can be sure.

You take a look into the eyes in the blue dressing room and you look for momentary lapses in conviction. There might be a few fellas who have the propensity to blink at the wrong time. However if there is a knowing certainty in all of them that they can stop O'Connell, Donncha O'Callaghan, David Wallace, Denis Leamy, Anthony Foley and Jerry Flannery running on the gain-line . . . mind you, that's an awful lot of runners to stop and they're all very proficient at the art . . . if they have that certainty, well that's gone a long way towards winning the war.

It just shows you the lopsided nature of the battle up front when you realise that Leinster have only one runner up front in Jamie Heaslip.

Keith Gleeson runs with effect but more often than not it's as a link runner. Six to one . . . that's going to require an awful lot of brave souls across the line.

They stopped Finau Maka, Fabien Pelous and Gregory Lamboley successfully. They had difficulty with Yannick Nyanga but more often than not the line held.

It will take a huge amount of pain, but it will be worth it. As the saying goes, show me a man who can hurt and I'll show you a winner every time.

When the Leinster pack look around at each other they have to be able to give a commitment that this will be done.

There is going to be an awful lot of containment work, not just passive containment but bad-ass bloody-minded containment. They will know that if they stop Munster's maul, they more or less have the game for the taking. Perpignan did it extremely effectively.

Can Leinster emulate or improve on that? Maybe they can. They also did it effectively against Toulouse.

Given what type of a game I think this is going to be it is something that Leinster can't ignore . . . they will have to acknowledge Munster's strengths in these areas and counteract and negate them.

From Leinster's own perspective, the one given they will have to concentrate on is the kick-off. They are fallible to a huge degree in this area, to the point of conceding the initiative back to most opposition. They would have blown Toulouse away if they'd caught all their kick-offs securely.

They conceded either points, possession or bad field position from most of the restarts.

Leinster for some reason leave themselves thin under the dropping ball. They move too slowly to the drop zone, they don't get a man in front and they jump early which leaves them open to misinterpretation of the flight of the ball and puts the lifters under pressure because the jumper is in the air too long. In addition they seem to have no designated sweeper if the pill goes unclaimed. Munster will assuredly go to work in this area. Skill, organisation and conviction are required but the work is done before the kick-off. I sincerely hope it has been done.

I have already said that I think this will be a game of poor quality . . . unnecessarily protracted tedium with a little bit of butterfly stew thrown in.

Joel Jutge was an unfortunate choice of referee. There's no question but that there will be yellow cards produced as negatory stalemates produce the sort of tension where players play illegally either out of choice or frustration.

Much has been made of the mouth-watering joust between Felipe Contempomi and Ronan O'Gara. It will be intriguing but I think the men inside them will have as much bearing on the outcome. I think the tussle at the breakdown will be fractious, inconsistent and untidy. The quality of ball will be slow and poor and very often I would guess that ruck ball will have to be won and re-won. So whichever scrum-half deals with crap ball better will have a pronounced influence on how the pivot controls the game.

Equally, I would guess that both teams will get their jumpers in the air on opposition throws. There will be ricochets coming faster than a Federer fast-ball.

Much has been written about Contempomi. He is a brilliant catalyst . . . the guy could start a riot in a graveyard. Offensively, I'm sure he will perform and I think he will run directly at his opposite number whenever he can, but defensively he will be the most important player on the pitch.

Leinster's back row have been key to keeping their side afloat in some tricky games. They have out-performed and absorbed pressure when the bullets have been flying in a dogfight. And this game will be a dogfight whether Leinster want it to be or not.

Trevor Halstead, Wallace, Leamy and all sorts of other goodies will be coming straight through that corridor. Contempomi has a couple of purple hearts for action under fire and it will be the quality of his tackling which will be telling. I can't imagine Munster getting much leverage in this area.

Further out, Leinster are defensively supreme. Munster might catch them once in the game but that will be it. I think the furthest east or west that Munster will allow the ball will be to Halstead, and even if they offload in the tackle here, Leinster's scramble defence is the best in the Heineken Cup.

In terms of controlling the game there isn't much to choose from between the two executives . . . numbers eight, nine, 10 and 15. Guy Easterby and Girvan Dempsey's good form will be negated by the fact that O'Gara's game will have to be no more than one dimensional (we all know what is going to happen when he gets the ball).

It is a pressure game and the side who deals with it better will win. Skills break down under pressure; if you can play as a team under pressure you will win. So you look at the weakest link in each team, wonder how he will react under pressure and come up with your answer. I think Munster shade the key components when the answer comes to you.

There won't be more than a try in it and it could be a jammy score or a video ref who decides the way the match goes. I can't see Leinster cutting loose, particularly at this stage of the competition. Anyway, when have you ever seen a Munster team cut to pieces? This match will be a fur-flying dogfight and in that case I think there will be only one winner . . . the men in red. I played 12 seasons with Leinster and it pains me to say it but in the words of CW Longnecker:

If you think you are beaten, you are;

If you think you dare not, you don't;

If you'd like to win but you think you can't, It's almost a cinch you won't.

If you think you'll lose, you've lost, For out of the world we find Success begins with a fellow's will . . .

It's all in the state of mind.

If you think you're outclassed, you are;

You've got to think high to rise;

You've got to be sure of yourself before You can ever win a prize.

Life's battles don't always go To the stronger or faster man;

But soon or later the man who wins, Is the one who thinks he can.

PS I would hope that every Leinster supporter wears a Leinster jersey to the game and if they don't have a Leinster jersey then a Chelsea jersey or a Laois jersey or anything blue and shout and sing for 90 minutes. It will be that close. I hope I'm wrong.




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