The more conservative-minded will welcome the upward trend in deposit rates, but the recent and expected future rises in euro rates may finally put the brakes on that stellar performer of the past decade - property. Higher rates may also dampen equity markets that might be considered fullyvalued.
Looking further afield, it is increasingly clear that emerging economies such as China and India are driving global growth as they continue to industrialize their economies.
The infrastructure needed to create houses, factories and communications networks generates a disproportionate demand on natural resources.
It is small wonder that demand for the raw materials of production is outstripping supply across the commodities spectrum.
Oil, gas, base metals - these are among the 'hard' commodities, demand for which seems certain to be consistently underpinned for years to come. And, where economic and population growth occurs, demand for 'soft' agricultural and livestock commodities inevitably follows as consumer tastes are upgraded.
But how does a would-be investor in commodities manage to get exposure to the market? It is hardly efficient to buy barrels of oil or load up on copper or aluminium. At the same time, investing directly in mining and exploration companies is not for the faint-hearted. Not only is the investor exposed to stock-specific risk, but mining is of its nature a high-risk business, often taking place in countries where there are additional political risks affecting the business environment, as well as associated risks of production.
Sean Kenzie of specialist fund management house Custom House Capital Limited claims to have the answer with the CHC Commodity Bond.
The bond invests in a diversified basket of hard and soft commodities, guaranteeing investors' principal after a 6year commitment with a 50,000 minimum investment.
It is the first opportunity of its kind in the Irish market, designed to allow Irish investors full exposure to a market that has previously been at best high-risk, or simply inaccessible.
"We carefully selected the underlying commodity weightings so as to outperform the Goldmans Sachs (GSCI) Commodities index, diversify the investment - while at the same time protecting investors' capital, " said Kenzie, who refutes the idea that would-be investors have already missed the commodities boat. "Bull runs in commodities markets typically occur in 15-20-year cycles, and we're still at an early stage, just 5 years out of a 20 year down cycle. We fully expect volatility, but we have constructed our basket in such a way that this is minimized when compared to, say, the GSCI Commodities index which has a 75% weighting in energy. Commodities are trading at levels substantially below previous peaks when we adjust for inflation. This could turn out to be like investing in the NASDAQ in the early 1990s, with no downside risk to your investment" In addition to Natural Gas, the CHC Commodities Bond is 20% invested in Brent crude oil, 40% in base metals (aluminium, lead, copper, zinc), 10% in precious metals (gold and silver), and 10% in soft (livestock and agricultural).
It is the ability of commodities to act as a diversifying, risk-reducing element in an overall portfolio that also makes them a persuasive investment option. Inflation may normally be the enemy of the investor, but commodities values are positively correlated with inflation which makes them an effective counterbalance to bonds and equities - asset classes that normally suffer in an inflationary environment. These are among the reasons why the Irish National Treasury Management Agency recently placed 2% of its portfolio in commodities.
The CHC Commodities Bond is suitable as a direct investment but can also be wrapped in a pension scheme or Approved Retirement Fund.
As it is structured as a euro deposit with Barclays Bank in the UK, returns qualify for a favourable tax rate of 20%.
|