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Drumm not beaten over Anglo's share price
Aine Coffey



ANGLO IRISH BANK group chief executive David Drumm would be feeling a little put out if he were overly sensitive.

What does a man have to do these days?

Drumm and his team delivered very strong interim results and an unshakably upbeat message at both analyst and media briefings last Wednesday. But this wasn't enough to stop some investors carping. By close of business on Friday, Anglo's share price was off by over 5% on its pre-results level.

In the run-up to Anglo's results, the consensus expectation was eps of 42c. The bank danced in on the money, but investors promptly punished it for failing to perform its time-honoured trick of crashing ebulliently past everyone's expectations.

Drumm professed himself unperturbed by the initial market reaction to the results. "We don't obsess internally about the share price, " he said. "If you were to watch it every day, week or month, you'd go mad."

The fact that Anglo is now better understood by the investment community and that expectations are more accurate is a good thing, he said.

"As people get more knowledgeable about the bank and their models get more sophisticated, analysts are closer to the bank."

Anglo's job is to turn in results, Drumm said, and the market can then make of it what it will. "No matter what you say, a 35% increase in profits is staggeringly good."

Anglo reported a 35% increase in interim pre-tax profit to 375m and record loan growth of 41.2bn, up by 21%. Eps was up by 30% to 41.9c.

Positive indicators for the full year included a record 71 bn 'work in progress', the term for loans approved and accepted in principle but not yet drawn down by customers. More than 80% of these loans are expected to be drawn down.

Anglo's cost income ratio was 29%, the best in its class, but still investors wavered.

Brokers reported that some investors were concerned that cost growth was too high and that new provisioning might indicate concern about asset quality. Drumm rebutted both suggestions.

Operating costs rose to 163m, from 121m in the same period in 2004. Drumm pointed both to the bank's extremely low cost income ratio, which he said is "unlikely to go up", and to the fact that revenue growth is 1% ahead of cost growth.

Anglo has been investing in offices and people, and has hired 100 staff in the past six months. "We can't be telling people that we believe we have a massive opportunity in Ireland, the UK and the US and not invest to exploit it, " Drumm said.

The bank made 20m of provisions for specific loan impairments and 15m provisions known under new IFRS accounting standards as IBNR (incurred but not reported), bringing the bank's total provisioning to 242m.

The IBNR provisioning had "absolutely nothing to do with sentiment or views on the future market", Drumm said.

"The community will absorb this over the next few weeks."

Drumm said that when IFRS came in a year ago, it was understood to mean that banks couldn't make general provisions. "The thinking has changed. Each year, we will be putting a little away." Going forward, provisioning of 15-20 basis points of new lending "would seem reasonable", he said.

Emer Lang of Davy Stockbrokers said she was "surprised" that some reaction to the bank's results was lukewarm. Davy sees the cost growth as an indicator of confidence on the part of the bank management, Lang said. And on the provisioning question, she said she views Anglo's assets as "pristine".

Davy had viewed the consensus eps estimate as "slightly aggressive", and had been looking for 40c. The broker upgraded its estimates by 2% after the results announcement.

It has a price target for the full year of 15.50, and Lang said she would not rule out earnings upgrades later in the year.

Goodbody moved its 'fair value' up by 3%. "The machines work, they are definitely getting more traction, " said Goodbody's Eamonn Hughes.

NCB, which rates Anglo an 'add', left its estimates unchanged. "It is a good business, and very well run, " said the broker's John Cantwell.

"The valuation is the only issue we have."

For Drumm, the highlight of the results, he said, was the fact that all businesses performed strongly, with loan growth at 17% in Ireland, 21% in the UK and 41% in the US.

"All our engines are firing, and it is fantastic that every part plays its part."

With positive data emerging in recent weeks on both the British and Irish commercial property markets, there is a lot left for Anglo to play for.




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