IRELAND'S property king has had to overcome more than worries about shortterm changes in the price of houses. Paul McNeive of Hamilton Osborne King had to learn to live as a double amputee after he lost his legs in a car crash in 1982.
He is neither reluctant nor eager to discuss the experience. It's simply part of who he is. But spending 18 months learning to use a wheelchair and then walking on prosthetics certainly will have put steel into his soul as well as his legs.
So it's not surprising that, since taking on one of the top jobs in Irish property in 2003, McNeive has taken HOK forward smartly. In the year he became managing director, turnover was 22m. By the end of this year it will have more than doubled to 45m, with profits growing 250% in the same period.
McNeive is more self-deprecating about the success than one might expect from a man who worked his way up through one of the most competitive sales environments in Ireland. "If you're not adding 20% to your turnover in this market, if you're in property, with the wind at your back, there's something wrong."
To cope with business, McNeive staffed up. Now HOK has 250 people directly employed in its Dublin, Cork, Belfast and Dublin residential offices, with another 150 working through subsidiaries as security guards, cleaners and managers of shopping centres such as Liffey Valley.
HOK also took on its first network partner, O'Connor Murphy Gubbins in Limerick, two years ago.
Although second-hand home sales account for just 20% of the business . . . new homes and apartments are counted as commercial deals . . . McNeive's opinion counts about when the price of houses in Ireland might start paying some attention to the laws of gravity.
"The main thrust of the economic commentary is positive. Even the ESRI is predicting around a 5% to 6% rate of GDP growth."
He mentions other recent bullish forecasts from Bank of Ireland's Dan McLaughlin and the near-Panglossian NCB prediction of another two decades of sunshine. But he acknowledges that might be going too far.
"We cannot keep growing house prices at the rate we have seen, " he says, noting that house prices rose 12% in the first quarter of this year. He believes the market will end up with a 10%-15% overall rate, a figure that would require significant cooling.
McNeive believes strongly that the overall demand for homes is unlikely to peak until 2011, when the cohort of 25-to 35-year-old first-time buyers finally stops increasing. For each year until then, more and more first-time buyers are likely to enter the market, all things being equal, continuing to drive the underlying demand.
One of the essential things that needs to happen to take the heat out of house price inflation is to increase the supply of land available for development to offset the demand, McNeive says.
"There needs to be more land zoned for development. But because of the corruption scandals, it's actually become harder for the system to bring new land onto the market. It's far too slow."
McNeive laughs off some recent theories about what's sustaining the house price boom, such as the introduction of condoms, but has his own.
"One solid theory is the rate of household formation . . . when you look at the rate of separations, now they have to have two separate homes." It's an enormous cultural shift and a significant factor that economists acknowledge, though many say it's hard to measure.
McNeive has little time for the doom merchants. Like many in property he is scathing about the Economist's 2000 prediction of a 20% crash in house prices.
Then there is another commentator closer to home.
"There's one well-known commentator on radio and in print here who has been saying for years that the market's going to collapse 'soon' because of changing theoretical yield on rental properties." He shifts in his chair and is the most impassioned he has been through the entire conversation. "It's fundamentally flawed, because we're talking about real people with kids, with families, with jobs, who are busy, who need a house. They don't go around analysing the comparative rental yield and return. It's just not real. People need houses, and they need them pretty quickly. They're earning good money, but could easily spend six months or a year looking for a house, and that can be quite a drag. And if the house comes up for auction they'd feel justified paying 15% more than they'd budgeted on because that's a better deal than continuing to hunt around, like an extra parttime job."
Central to McNeive's strategy has been to focus on customer service. "We benchmarked that and found that we were slightly above average. We thought we might be a bit better than that but we weren't. So we did a lot of training involving our own people."
The key difference, McNeive says, has been to get his employees to take responsibility for the ideas.
"People come up with things to add on the phone, things to open up the conversation, to invite people . . . send brochures out, send them on time, how it looked, the quality of everything."
McNeive acknowledges that the popularity of estate agents is just slightly above that of used car salesmen . . . and journalists . . . but says there is little that can be done to their image, beyond the rigorous customer service testing he has put in place.
"In this market there is very little the industry can do. It's like getting tickets for an Ireland v Brazil match or a one-nightonly U2 concert. You're going to have some people who aren't happy because they're not getting in. We pride ourselves on behaving 100% ethically. We were the first agent to publish guidelines on our ads and change them every week. We've always supported the AMV recommendations."
But the hyper-competitive nature of estate agents, with the possibility of some sharp practice, is unlikely to change until there's a slowdown in the market. "That will take some of the spice out of it. You're not going to get the same intensity."
HOK is maximising its position in Ireland as its first priority. McNeive says the Belfast office has recently scored three major deals, including the 'trophy instruction' of the Victoria Square shopping centre. He says he is looking to expand in Cork and establish in Galway.
There is also the international business.
McNeive says the share of HOK business now done overseas is 20% and rising. He says HOK has acquired over 5bn in commercial property for Irish investors . . . more than 150 sites . . . over the last five years.
"We're a known player on the European stage and very strong in the UK, managing a lot of properties from here."
There's also North America, where HOK has done three deals in the US in the past six months. He says the firm has done nine "chunky" acquisitions in Paris in the last 18 months, up to 150m for a property.
For all the positivity about the future of the market, it's worth noting that McNeive has diversified HOK's business to such "recession-proof" areas as rent reviews and property management.
Unlike many operators in what he calls 'Celtic Tiger 2', McNeive has seen lean as well as fat times. He's prepared to succeed in either.
CURRICULUM VITAE
PAUL MCNEIVE Job: Managing director, Hamilton Osborne King
Age: 43
Interesting to note: Penned the winning entry in a radio contest for Irish team song for the 1994 World Cup. The only double amputee in the world with a helicopter pilot's licence.
Family: Married to Barbara with three children.
HAMILTON OSBORNE KING
Turnover: predicted 45m this year
Staff: 250
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