Fianna Fail has already booked its 2007 ardfheis with RTE for 24 March, offering further evidence that the second Friday in May is foremost in Taoiseach Bertie Ahern's mind.

The state broadcaster has set a moratorium on the holding of party conferences after 31 March next to allow for a six-week coolingoff period to the general election.

Opting for 11 May would bring Fianna Fail beyond the six-week deadline and allow Ahern to call a general election immediately after returning from the Easter break . . . a key point because the government has performed better in opinion polls when the Dail is not sitting.

With Easter Sunday falling on 8 April next year, the Oireachtas is likely to resume on 17 April. The Taoiseach could then opt on that day to announce his intention to seek a dissolution of the Dail, with a 23-day campaign . . . identical in length to 2002 . . . culminating in election day on 11 May.