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Jeb denies rumours of another Bush president, but big brother is watching
David Usborne New York



THESE have not been easy days for governor Jeb Bush of Florida. Several of his prized policy proposals were shot down in flames last week by the state legislature, casting him as a lame-duck leader, while his newest flap is about an approaching US senate race that his party is all but certain to lose.

Complicating matters was the prospect of a visit to the state this week by his elder brother George, the president.

Reporters would be lobbing questions about the senate race mess and about his own next moves . . . he is near the end of his second term as governor and can't run again.

Jeb, who is 53, has been sticking determinedly to his text about having seven months still to go before relinquishing his post, with lots more work to do . . . until his brother opened his mouth in a group interview with Florida reporters on Wednesday night.

It was during a stopover in St Petersburg that the president chose to plant the idea . . .not exactly for the first time . . .that his younger sibling should be thinking about higher office when he leaves the governor's mansion in Tallahassee next January. He should be thinking about the White House.

"I think Jeb would be a great president. But it's up to Jeb to make a decision to run, " Bush declared. "He is an extraordinary person who has proven his capacity as a political figure.

In my judgement, his political future is very bright if he chooses to have a political future."

The president hinted that Jeb making a run in 2008 has already been the subject of family conversations. "I have no idea what he's going to do, " he said. "I've asked him that question myself. I truly don't think he knows." He said he has "pushed him fairly hard about what he intends to do".

The governor, who was on the other side of the state at the time at a hurricane conference in Fort Lauderdale, was obliged on Wednesday evening to repeat his ritual denials. We are still to believe, therefore, that he will return to private life, which probably means wheeling and dealing in Miami.

His first response was in Spanish, which he speaks fluently. "I love my brother, " he said with a broad, perhaps mildly embarrassed smile. "His words were very beautiful. But I am not thinking of running for president. I aspire to be the best governor possible until the end of my mandate."

In English, he made the point more clearly, additionally trying to lay to rest rumours that he may himself step into the breach to seek the senate seat. "I'm not running for president, I'm not running for the United States senate. I'm not going to run. . . Why doesn't everyone believe me on this?"

It is true that the idea of President Jeb refuses to go away. His brother sparked the first speculation at the beginning of last year when he dispatched Jeb to southeast Asia to visit areas devastated by the tsunami, along with former secretary of state Colin Powell. The idea, some said, was to build up the governor's international credentials.

Then it was the turn of his father, the first president George Bush, who said in an interview with CNN's Larry King that Jeb would be "awfully good" as president. "This guy's smart, big and strong, makes the decisions." It is well known that when the elder Bush used to wonder about which of his offspring would extend the family legacy by following him into the White House, it was Jeb he thought first about, not George.

Of course, the dynastic quality of a putative Jeb-for-president run also piques the media's interest. It would be the first time in the history of the country that two brothers have assumed the office of commander-in-chief. And, by the way, while George is the 43rd president, Jeb is the 43rd governor of Florida. It has a sort of quaint mathematical appeal that Jeb should become 44th president, therefore.

The scenario is even more intriguing than that because of the parallel dynastic dance going on in the Democratic camp. Few now doubt that Hillary Clinton will win reelection to the US senate in New York later this year and will seek her party's nomination for president in two years.

In fact, it was George Bush himself who recently quipped that, the way things were going, the roll-call of US presidents could run "Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton". With Jeb added to the mix, it could become Bush, Clinton, Bush, Bush. Or even, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton, Bush. America might give us Clintons and Bushes ad nauseam.

Seen like that, the mere suggestion of Jeb-for-prez may seem like overkill by the Bush family. It caused some Democrats to chortle with delight last week and even some Republicans to release quiet groans. "It doesn't do President Bush any good to talk about it, " one Republican consultant suggested . Because of sheer Bushfatigue, the idea may therefore be a non-starter.

But if the idea won't die entirely, it may be Jeb himself who is to blame. He does have his problems at the moment.

The likely Republican candidate for the senate seat is Katherine Harris, the former Florida secretary of state who played a key part in the struggle for Florida in the votecounting mess of the 2000 election. She was accused by some of tipping the field in favour of George Bush, who took the state by a margin of just 537 votes. A deeply polarising figure, her campaign is beset by problems and miniscandals. On Monday, Jeb Bush himself said she was doomed to defeat in November.

Nor was there any hiding the governor's disappointment earlier this month when the Republican-controlled state legislature rebelled, rejecting portions of his plans for a rollback in property taxes and for changes in the state constitution to allow parents to pick and choose between schools for their children.

But by most reckonings, he has proved an effective and well-liked governor. He was elected for a second term in 2002 by an even larger margin than when he first won in 1998.

In fact, Jeb is on course to become one of the very few governors in Florida's history to serve two full terms and the first Republican ever to do so.

More appealing to Republicans, however, are Jeb's poll numbers. While the president's approval ratings are notching down towards a miserable 30% . . . touching levels where his father bottomed out before him . . . Jeb's numbers consistently reach 55% or higher.

It may be Jeb's personality as much as his conservative politics that has given him enduring appeal. He is popular with Florida's large Cuban community as well as with most non-Cuban Hispanics, in part because of his fluency in Spanish. His wife, Columba, is originally Mexican. They met at a motorcycle race in Leon, Mexico, when Bush was teaching English there on a student exchange. Meanwhile, he has nurtured the many Jewish retirees in the state by taking strong positions on Israel.

With Columba, Bush also converted to Catholicism, which has informed some of his political leanings. On abortion, the governor is firmly prolife. He made international headlines two years ago when he passed a law in Florida to prevent a husband of a woman in a coma . . . Terri Schiavo . . .

from removing her from life support. In the end, the courts overruled the governor and Schiavo was allowed to die.

For Republican Party strategists there is something else important about Jeb, of course.

And that would be Florida itself. As recent history has shown, winning the state can be crucial to a successful run for the White House.

But none of this may matter.

The governor may mean it when he says he does not want to run for office again. As a financier and property developer in Miami through the 1980s and early '90s, he turned himself into a millionaire several times over. He may also take seriously those who say:

Enough Bush already!

Jeb for pres - the jokes JAY LENO: "Rumour is that President Bush's brother, Florida governor Jeb Bush, may run for president. Rumour is?

According to Florida voting machines, he's already won."

DAVID LETTERMAN: "Jeb Bush says he wants to be president.

Well that's good, somebody will have to pardon his brother."

JON STEWART: "For a fun second-term drinking game, chug a beer every time you hear the phrase 'contentious but futile protest vote by Democrats'. By the time Jeb Bush is elected, you'll be so wasted you won't even notice the war in Syria."

Jeb Bush on. . .

THE FLORIDA ELECTION CHAOS THAT WON HIS BROTHER THE 2000 PRESIDENCY: "There may have been isolated cases where supervisors of election didn't have the right lists or something like that.

But in general, I don't think there was any concerted effort to take away people's right to vote."

THE DEATH PENALTY: "I have absolutely no doubt that the death warrants I have signed have been for people who were justly sentenced for the crime they committed."

APPOINTING A LAWYER FOR THE FOETUS OF A RETARDED RAPE VICTIM: "This is simply an expression of compassion for a tragic case."

11 SEPTEMBER: "We awoke one morning in September, and the world lurched on its axis. We awoke one morning and we confronted a threat that is unprecedented for our generation."

AFLORIDA BILL ALLOWING RESIDENTS TO SHOOT INTRUDERS: "A good, commonsense, anti-crime issue."

CIVIL RIGHTS: "The surest way to get something in today's society is to elevate one's status to that of the oppressed. Many of the modern victim movements . . . the gay rights movement, feminist movement, black empowerment movement . . .

have attempted to get people to view themselves as part of a smaller group deserving of something from society."

THE PEOPLE OF SAN FRANCISCO:

"It looks like the people of San Francisco are an endangered species, which may not be a bad thing. That's probably good news for the country."

BROTHER GEORGE: "I don't see how I help George by having a high pro"le nationally. In fact, I see the opposite."




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