With a 11 May 2007 polling day looking increasingly likely, all the political parties are facing into a gruelling 12-month election campaign. A year before the 2002 general election, it was pretty obvious that Bertie Ahern would be returned as Taoiseach; the only questions surrounded the make-up of his government. This time around there are few certainties.

We do know that Fine Gael will gain seats . . .

given its meltdown four years ago, the only way is up . . . and Sinn Fein will also make advances.

Fianna Fail, unless there is a major turnaround in its fortunes, will lose seats. But, after that, everything is up for grabs.

As of now, Bertie Ahern is still the favourite to stay on as Taoiseach. A coalition with Labour looks most likely, but the return of the current coalition, supported by Independents or even a buoyant Green Party, cannot be ruled out.

However, the resurgence of Fine Gael under Enda Kenny means that the election is going to be a close-run thing. In order to win, Fine Gael and Labour are going to have to gain more seats than has ever been achieved in the history of the state.

It is a difficult challenge, but not impossible.

Whatever the outcome, it is good for democracy that, unlike in 2002, there will be a clear alternative to the current government at the next general election. To paraphrase PJ Mara, it's not quite show time, but it's getting very close.