GLANBIA managing director John Maloney sounded a somewhat downbeat note at the company's AGM last week when he said first-half earnings will be hit by falling profit at its milk unit, and that higher energy costs will also offset profits.
Exacerbating Maloney's mood was a backdrop where continuing upward pressure on oil prices is likely to see Glanbia's energy costs rise by 20% during the year, and where the EU is cutting the prices of dairy products as part of its Mid-Term Review.
On the bright side, Maloney told shareholders he remains confident that the company will meet analysts' full-year forecasts. Speaking in Kilkenny, he said the group is making "solid operational progress" despite the difficulties it faces.
Investors who believe in the Glanbia story have an opportunity to buy now relatively cheaply, as the stock price has declined by over 12% since the company announced its results on 1 March.
Glanbia reported 2005 net income of 61.3m, barely up on the 61.1m figure in 2004.
Its 2005 revenue was 1.8bn, up 4.4% on the figure for the previous year. Last Friday afternoon Glanbia was trading at 2.41, at a discount to the sector.
With Maloney on the expansion trail, this year may bring some interesting news for investors. He has said Glanbia has as much as 100m to spend on acquisitions, and said last week that the firm is eyeing up two to three potential takeover targets with sales of up to 60m.
Expanding beyond traditional borders may give Glanbia the chance to spread risk and bolster its business.
Sales from Glanbia's fledgling New Mexico cheese-producing plant will filter into results later this year, and should provide an encouraging uplift to full-year figures.
Sales from Glanbia's Nigerian joint venture are also strong.
Glanbia's partner on the Nigerian milk powder project, UK consumer group PZ Cussons, is interested in establishing more nutritional businesses in that market and such ventures would undoubtedly be of interest to Glanbia.
Further nutritional advances are likely to help Glanbia boost its product range. As consumers opt for healthier and more functional foods, Glanbia is attempting to capitalise on the trend. It is launching a new functional ingredient called OlivActiv, and is researching ways of incorporating it into drinks, yogurts and food bars. Such innovations can generate high-margin products that attract well-heeled consumers.
Analyst Paul Meade of NCB expects the shortfall in Glanbia's Irish food ingredients business to be offset by "improved performance in agribusiness, consumer foods, and especially property disposals, which is expected to raise 5m in the current year as opposed to 2m last year".
Meade rates the stock an 'add', noting that Glanbia's US operations, where it has cheese-producing plants in Idaho and New Mexico, continue to perform satisfactorily despite lower US dairy prices.
Merrion Stockbrokers' Robert Brisbourne rates the company as a 'hold'. He noted that it is trading on a multiple of 11, at a discount to the sector, and that this is "reflective of the challenging conditions facing the group in its Irish businesses".
Goodbody analyst Liam Igoe has a 'buy' rating on the stock. One potential boost for shareholders, he said, is the fact that Glanbia is proposing that the Glanbia Co-Operative Society sells some of its 55% stake in the company to raise funds to compensate farmers for cuts in milk prices. A vote will be taken later this year. "It's an interesting idea, as it would give the shares some extra liquidity, " Igoe said.
Meanwhile, Kerry Group was also on the AGM circuit, with chief executive Hugh Friel echoing Maloney's comments that market conditions are challenging.
Speaking at the company's AGM in Tralee on Friday, Friel said energy costs, the weakening dollar and the volatility of raw material prices may affect the group's chances of hitting earnings targets for the full year.
Before week's AGM, Kerry was one of the highest-rated Stoxx-600 companies, with an average price target of 21.
Kerry's stock slid by more than 9% in Dublin on Friday as Friel admitted the company may not meet 2006 earnings targets.
Investors did not seem comforted by Friel's statement that the company continues to make "good operational progress in optimising processing and business support structures and through elimination of noncore activities".
Kerry's net income rose to almost 236m last year from 204m in 2004, with sales rising by 7.3% to 4.4bn.
Kerry Co-Op, which owns 31% of Kerry Group's stock, plans to reduce its stake to 27.7% by transferring ownership of 10% of its shares directly to Kerry Co-Op members.
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