The heavily-powdered face of the Fine Gael leader is currently beaming out from billboard posters across the land. The image, with its ever-so-noticeable tinge of baby pink lip-gloss, has been the source of much sniggering from Kenny's political foes in the environs of Leinster House. But, if the results of the latest national opinion poll are borne out at the next general election, then the Mayo man would be well advised to keep plastering on the war-paint.

Opinion polls are snap-shots of public opinion at particular points in time. Frequently, surveys taken outside election time throw up results which are out of kilter with actual election results. But this weekend, Fine Gael will want to hear nothing of those health warnings. Following a generally lacklustre start to 2006, and a much criticised ardfheis performance, Kenny and his party can now talk about the real possibility of forming a government with Labour after the next general election.

When asked who they would vote for if there was an election tomorrow, the respondents to the latest Irish Times/TNS MRBI opinion poll delivered a bloody nose to Bertie Ahern's government. Fianna Fail stands on 31%, down 6%; Fine Gael 28%, down 4%; Labour 15%, down 1%; the PDs and Sinn Fein were unchanged respectively at 3% and 9% while the Greens were up one to 5%. But given the question asked . . . voting in an election, tomorrow . . . it might be reading too much into the results to consider Fine Gael and Labour as a shoo-in for government. All the political parties are increasingly on election footing but, in the knowledge that the contest will not take place for another year, the voters may still be in a mid-term mood.

Five years ago, at what now turns out to be the same point in the electoral cycle, Fianna Fail was riding high in corresponding opinion polls with 42% support.

However, five years ago many people did not believe Bertie Ahern's promise to see out a full term as Taoiseach. The expectation of an early election in 2001 may have persuaded voters to reveal their ultimate voting intentions earlier than they have in this latest poll. Now, there is near universal acceptance that the next election will be in 2007 and people may not have decided their actual voting intentions, but rather be letting off steam about current controversies. The fact that the latest poll was undertaken during a disruptive rail strike and with the airwaves full of talk about Prime Time's A&E investigation may actually have skewed the poll findings.

Fianna Fail can only hope this scenario is true because an election day outcome that mirrors the latest opinion poll findings would see heavy seat losses.

The poll figures were arrived at following an adjustment mechanism used by the polling company for several years now. For some time opinion poll results were shown to overestimate support for Fianna Fail, while support for Fine Gael, and to a lesser degree Labour, was underestimated. A study in 1997 showed that opinion poll respondents who didn't vote tended to opt in surveys for Fianna Fail. Pollsters call it the 'market leader effect'. It is evident in opinion polls for consumer products as well as political parties. The ranks of the 'don't knows', when pressed to make a choice, generally opt for the largest product. To overcome this problem, some polling companies adjust their results. In the case of Irish political polls, Fianna Fail's vote is reduced while support for the main two opposition parties is increased. So, according to the latest poll Fianna Fail's core vote is 30% but its adjusted vote is 31% whereas Fine Gael has a 21% core vote but a 28% adjusted vote.

This adjustment mechanism may, however, now be outdated given the changed political landscape of the last decade, although the polling company does not agree with this point. However such discussions may consume the political and media classes, the bottom line is that the latest poll shows that a game is on, with three post-election government options all still viable: FF/PD; FG/Lab and another small party and even, despite the protestations from certain quarters, FF/Lab.

The latest Fine Gael performance is not spectacular but it is further evidence that Enda Kenny has done a decent job in dragging his party away from the political abyss.

The real problem for Fine Gael, though, may well be urban Ireland. With the exception of Dublin South, there is unlikely to be a single constituency in the Dublin region where Fine Gael will win more than one seat.

Indeed, there will probably still be a handful of Dublin constituencies without any Fine Gael TD. The party has a strong rural base but would seem to have failed, thus far, to connect with urban voters.

Kenny faces a challenging period ahead.

In what is likely to become 'the Bertie and Enda show', the voters will ultimately have to decide the man to lead the next government. The only good news that Fianna Fail can take from the latest poll is that its man, with a 52% satisfaction rating, continues to beat the pants off his Fine Gael counterpart who has a 40% rating. The battle of the 'make-up men' is now underway.