In 1997, Fianna Fail and the PDs took 23 seats there, just pipping the outgoing Rainbow coalition, leaving it in pole position for government. Five years later, the result was a lot more emphatic.

Fine Gael went into meltdown in the capital.

The party won just 14.5% of the vote in the city and lost nine seats.

Fianna Fail and the PDs took 25 seats compared to the combined total of 17 won by Labour, the Greens and Fine Gael.

While Fine Gael's performance nationally was dismal, it was Dublin more than anywhere that seemed to highlight the party's seemingly terminal decline. At its zenith in November 1982 under Garret FitzGerald, Fine Gael had 23 Dublin TDs. Two decades on, it had just three, relegating it to fifth place in the party pecking order.

For those sceptical about Fine Gael's ability to recover from its 2002 electoral disaster, the capital city loomed large in their considerations. It was obvious by as early as 2004 that Enda Kenny had revitalised Fine Gael. But the belief among many in Leinster House was that the revival stopped at the M50. Kenny's more rural appeal, they contended, wouldn't wash with the city slickers in the big smoke.

However, last week's Irish Times analysis was either wrong in the first place or has become outdated. It is understood that poll showed Fianna Fail at 30% in Dublin (down from 37% in the 2002 general election), Fine Gael at 20% (up from 14.5%) and Labour at 20% (up from 15%).

Coming on top of this is a report in today's Sunday Tribune that Fianna Fail's own private polls show the party is in serious trouble in Dublin, where it is heading for electoral disaster. At 30%, there is no doubt that Fianna Fail would lose quite a number of its 21 seats in the capital, particularly given that in 2002 it got a major seat bonus in Dublin, winning 45% of the seats with just 37% of the vote. In 1992, with 33% of the vote in the capital, the party won just 16 seats. If the 30% opinion poll rating was repeated in an election, Fianna Fail could fall as low as 14 seats . . . a loss of seven TDs.

In contrast at 20%, Fine Gael and Labour should be confident of securing at least ten seats each, while it is accepted the Greens have a decent chance of holding their five Dublin seats.

The trouble seats for Fianna Fail are easy to identify. In its North Dublin stronghold . . . where it currently holds ten of the 18 seats on offer . . . the main government party is in danger of losing seats in each of the five constituencies. In Dublin North, GV Wright is retiring and the party will have a real struggle to hold its two seats. Dublin NorthWest is Sinn Fein's number two target seat in the country, so junior minister Noel Ahern and the highly respected Pat Carey will be under serious pressure to hold on. Dublin North-Central is being reduced to a three seater which will make it extremely difficult for incumbents Ivor Callely and Sean Haughey. Sinn Fein is also going to provide a major challenge to Fianna Fail in both Dublin North-West and the Taoiseach's constituency of Dublin Central.

On the southside, the picture is no more comforting. In Dublin South-West, Fine Gael is hell bent on winning its seat back. If Brian Hayes is successful . . . barring a personal disaster for Labour leader Pat Rabbitte . . . that will have to come at the expense of either junior minister Conor Lenihan or Charlie O'Connor.

There is no guarantee that Fianna Fail will hold its two seats in either Dublin South-Central or Dun Laoghaire, while South-East is the one constituency in the country where the party could end up without a TD . . . an unprecedented outcome. As many as nine of Fianna Fail's Dublin seats are vulnerable.

The only positive for Fianna Fail right now is that, looking at the individual constituencies, it is not easy to identify definite Fine Gael gains. If Sean Barrett is back on the ticket, the party will pick up a seat in Dun Laoghaire, but it is hard to buy into the hopes of a second seat in its former heartland.

Fine Gael has also targeted gains in Dublin South-West, South-East and South. However, in SouthWest, it is very much 50-50 between Hayes and Fianna Fail for the final seat. In South-East, the formidable presence of Michael McDowell will make it very difficult for Fine Gael, while the ongoing popularity of Liz O'Donnell means the odds must be against a second Fine Gael seat in Dublin South.

Nor are there obvious grounds for optimism on the northside. In theory, there should be a seat for Fine Gael in Dublin North, but with a first time candidate, there is no guarantee of success. The party held a seat in Dublin NorthEast up to 2002 and has high profile businessman Brody Sweeney on the ticket, but it won't find it easy in this three seater. Richard Bruton should hold his seat in Dublin North-Central but . . . unless there is a huge swing to Fine Gael . . . the party appears to have no chance of a gain in either Dublin North-West or Dublin Central.

There are greater reasons for hope in Dublin West . . . where local election poll topper Leo Varadkar hopes to take a seat at the expense of either Labour's Joan Burton or Socialist Joe Higgins . . .

and Dublin Mid-West, where the party believes Frances Fitzgerald can take the extra seat added to this constituency.

But while the constituency-byconstitutency picture might not look too rosy, clearly if the party gets 20% or more in Dublin . . . as it did in 1997 . . . gains are inevitable.

Political analyst Noel Whelan says that "on a good day" Fine Gael could gain six seats in Dublin, on "a very good day" it could gain seven or eight seats but, against that, on a bad day, it might be just pick up a couple of extra seats. But, Whelan adds, it is clear that after the latest opinion poll, "this election is in play". After what happened to Fine Gael in Dublin just four years ago, that is already a considerable achievement.