CHRIS GENT'S multi-billion euro acquisition spree has incurred the wrath of many a Vodafone shareholder in recent years, but the former chief executive knew the value of paying in shares rather than cash.
Vodafone, now under the guidance of Gent's successor Arun Sarin, last week announced what was the highest annual loss in European corporate history. The £21.9bn ( 31.9bn) plunge into the red during 2005 was caused by £23.5bn ( 34.2bn) worth of writedowns in the value of subsidiaries, primarily relating to its German unit, for which Vodafone paid hugely inflated sums before valuations in the telecoms sector reacquainted themselves with reality in 2001.
Luckily for Vodafone, it financed much of its 230bn shopping trip . . . 140bn spent on Germany's Mannesmann alone . . . with overpriced paper of its own. Unfortunately for shareholders, that paper is no longer overpriced.
Vodafone would have to treble in value, from its current price of £1.20 in London, to give Irish shareholders any chance of breaking even on shares that were trading at £3.50 at the time of the Eircell deal. Few would bet on Sarin taking the company back to those dizzy heights.
At an operating level, Vodafone showed overall growth of 10% in sales, to 42.7bn. Its adjusted operating profit, stripping out the effect of the writedowns, was up 12.5% to to 13.7bn.
Bright spots included its minority stake in US operator Verizon. Sarin has been under serious pressure from the company's large institutional shareholders to offload Vodafone's share of Verizon, but he said last week that it remains "a very happy shareholder".
"Frankly, the value in this asset has appreciated substantially over the last number of years, " he added.
Verizon grew its subscriber base by over 16% last year.
Telecoms analyst John Delaney of London-based consultants Ovum said that illustrated the glaring truth that the US is one of the few developed economies that continues to deliver growth for mobile operators. "I think Vodafone needs to be in the US for that reason, " he said.
Growth is not so easy to come by in other markets.
During the past year, Vodafone has lost market share in the UK, its home market, and in Germany, and has called time on its disastrous Japanese venture . . . selling up its operation there after failing to make inroads in a very competitive environment.
Vodafone has also failed to convince the market that it can deliver revenue growth from the subscriber base it has. Many of the company's subsidiaries operate in mature markets, none more so than the UK. The great land-grab is over and Vodafone has to focus on making the most of its existing customer base.
Having rolled out new network technology (3G) at great cost, the company is pushing high-speed data services to corporate customers and video, music and mobile TV to consumers.
Therein lies the future, Sarin believes, having noted that, in March, 10% of Vodafone's revenue came from customers using its 3G service. "It's an important milestone. We're making progress, " he said.
Ovum's Delaney, though, said that Vodafone has not yet proven the case for 3G.
"It's a big if, still. We still haven't got any firm evidence that this will appeal to the mass market".
Until that happens, the company's shares are unlikely to regain the affection of the stock market. Delaney said the prevailing attitude is "won't get fooled again".
"In the 90s", he said, "the market mistook high subscriber growth for huge valuations. These days there is more focus on ARPU [average revenue per user]".
Vodafone has to prove that these new services are the tonic to grow ARPU. And it's telling that, even in Ireland, one of the company's best performing markets, it is struggling to do so.
Vodafone's overall Irish revenue continues to grow . . .
thanks to population growth and a healthy influx of new subscribers . . . but its ARPU actually fell in the last year, due to increased competition and resultant downward pressure on voice and data charges. That, in microcosm, is what the company is facing throughout Europe.
Sarin has outlined plans to focus on growing its business in "emerging markets" such as China, India and South Africa, where mobile penetration is still low.
But the barriers to growth are high, not least because disposable income is much lower than in the "developed markets" Vodafone has concentrated on to date.
Between finding an offer that will appeal to users in emerging markets and coaxing more cash from users in developed markets, Sarin has his work cut out to convince shareholders that mobile can still be sexy.
A 6p per share dividend, a peace offering following the sale of Vodafone Japan, offers something to ease the pain.
But the magic £3.50 figure seems as far away as ever for Irish shareholders.
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