Maybe in years to come we'll look back at Euro 2004 as the moment the scales fell from our eyes. It hasn't happened yet, definitely not. You won't see any World Cup preview . . . this one included . . .

picking, say, Ukraine or Paraguay to win the thing. But maybe, in time, we'll come to the realisation that we've been kidding ourselves, looking in the wrong places when it comes to working these things out.

Because in many ways, we've got international football all wrong. Our interest and attention affords it an aura it doesn't especially deserve. We approach it with our minds made up about players we're used to seeing in circumstances and surroundings that bear almost no relation to those in which a European Championships or World Cup places them. And then we wonder where it all went wrong, why our predictions died on their arses, how it could be that this Premiership nobody can be that tournament star.

Call it the Milan Baros Anomaly. Three seasons ago, he couldn't have paid Gerard Houllier for a place in the Liverpool side and he never really sweetened Rafa Benitez's coffee either. He's plugged away for Aston Villa over the last year, nicking the odd goal here and there but by no means making himself undroppable. He's been around long enough for most observers to come to a verdict on him.

Fair to middling with the odd flash of inspiration is about as good as it gets. Streaky.

Inconsistent. You know the type.

And yet, stick a Czech shirt on him and he's transformed. He averages better than a goal in every two games. For the month of Euro 2004, he was the best striker in Europe, scoring five in five games and taking the golden boot. He's scored 26 goals for his country, the same amount as Robbie Keane has for his but Baros has taken an incredible 20 fewer games to do so and isn't even the Czechs' penalty taker.

How do you make sense of that? By the singular passion inspired by the clarion drumbeat of the Czech national anthem? Maybe. Most likely, though, it's that we over-estimate the level at which international football is played.

We're suckers for it, romantics who want to believe that placing the ball at the feet of the best is all that's needed. Truth is, although the best players in the world will be in Germany over the next month, the best teams will not.

Chelsea or Barcelona or Juventus (referee approval permitting, naturally) would win the World Cup. Bayern Munich and Lyon and PSV Eindhoven too, probably. The oldest nugget in the book still holds . . . players win matches, teams win tournaments.

There are 32 collections of players dropping their bags into German hotel rooms as you read this. How many of them could be called teams? Ten? Five?

Baros plays in one of them. The best stab you can take at explaining his record is that the Czech Republic have managed that most elusive of tricks . . . turning the national side into a club one, building continuity, forging understanding and trust between the players. Since the start of Euro 2004, they've played 20 competitive matches and for 15 of those Baros, Karel Poborsky, Jan Koller and Tomas Galasek have started together.

In this mix and under the eye of a genuine football technician in Karel Bruckner, Baros thrives. Simply put, the Czech team is a better one than Villa and it plays against a great many international sides that aren't a patch on what even David O'Leary's charges have to offer. So Baros is a scoring machine in one jersey and a frustration in the other.

Given the right circumstances, then, the possibilities for an international side are as limitless as they are for any club side. It's just that the right circumstances so rarely come along.

These players don't belong to these teams, they belong to the ones whose cheques are lodged for them. All the emotional attachments in the world can hardly make up for time spent together, learning how to play with one another. When you think about it, it's crazy that we confer immortality upon those who manage to get their planets aligned for seven games once every four years.

But it's the World Cup. It's what the footballing public rightly chooses to care about.

It's the last bit of the sport's big time that doesn't belong to oligarchs or shareholders or venture capitalists. It belongs to the people of Togo, Angola and Trinidad and Tobago and England and Italy and, yes, Ireland and all the other countries that aren't there. It belongs to the geeks and nerds who'll analyse every free-kick and corner just as much as it belongs to all the curious girlfriends who'll get into it for a week or two before walking away. Don't be shy, ladies . . . all are welcome, no strings attached. We'll still respect you in July.

As we've seen, though, picking a winner is impossible. Not difficult, not tricky. Impossible. Oh, you can pick a name and end up being right but that's not at all the same thing.

(Readers are advised to wipe this paragraph from their hard drive if any of the following comes to pass).

To the favourites first and to our one tightly-held conviction. Brazil won't win it. The problem with them is that it's easy to get beguiled by them at big tournaments and have our judgement skewed. We dismiss Greece's win in Portugal as a freak occurrence without recognising that Brazil's third World Cup win in 1970 was just as outlandish.

The best team in the tournament winning the World Cup playing constantly bewitching football? It's arguably the only time that has ever happened.

There's a chance it could happen here. Of course there is. It's beyond argument that if Brazil find a way to play together, they'll win.

If even six of them can find a way to link up and click with each other, they'll win. If you took Ronaldinho and put him in almost any one of the other top 10 contenders, they'd probably win. There isn't a squad with more talent in the tournament.

But we're looking for teams here. There isn't a squad that has played fewer friendlies than Brazil. Or one with more high-profile players coming off the back of terrible seasons. Or one in which the coach has had less time with his players . . . the marquee ones especially . . . since qualification. Brazil are turning up and expecting it all to slide into place and Carlos Alberto Parreira named his team for the first match a month ago. Kaka, Ronaldinho, Ronaldo and Adriano ahead of Emerson and Ze Roberto as holding midfielders. The decadence. They won't do it but it'll be fun to watch them try.

As for who will, we're torn between Argentina and Italy. Both have kept firm lids on expectations but both fit the profile of what we're looking for here. The Argentineans are all hard chaws at the back and wizards up front. Gabriel Heinze, Juan Pablo Sorin and Roberto Ayala will give away a few free-kicks but little else and Esteban Cambiasso and Javier Mascherano do their best work for Juventus and Corinthians respectively when hunting down break-outs and loose passes. In Juan Roman Riquelme, Lionel Messi and Hernan Crespo, there is genuine artistry available to them and that's without counting the slew of former next-Maradonas (Aimar, Tevez, Saviola) sitting on the bench. Win their group . . . admittedly the toughest of them all . . . and they're looking at something like first Mexico and then Germany to make the semi-final.

It's there they'll probably meet Italy, though.

Which is where they might come unstuck.

Italy have the best central-defensive partnership in the tournament in Fabio Cannavaro and Alessandro Nesta. They have a midfield with real snap in Gennaro Gattuso and Mauro Camoranesi. Add in as good a left-back as there is in the tournament in Gianluca Zambrotta and a striker who could be on the edge of Rossi/Schillaci-style stardom in Luca Toni and there's a case to be made.

That's before mentioning names like Totti, Buffon, Inzaghi, Pirlo and Perotta. Like Argentina, winning their group will be the trickiest assignment before the semi-final.

From left-field, Portugal could conceivably put a run together. Again, winning the group would be crucial but thereafter, they should have it in them to get past either the Ivory Coast or Holland and then probably England before meeting Brazil in the semi-final. They have almost the same team as should have won that night in Lisbon two years ago and in Luis Felipe Scolari a coach with all the credentials. In that tournament, they perfected the art of improving with every game but froze on their big night. This is what second chances are for.

Bits and bobs? Write off the Germans, for one. Throw in dear old Sven and the boys for another. Spain for the quarter-final and no further, the Africans needed more luck with the draw, Japan will nobble either Australia or Croatia and France will send a player home before it's over. Or failing that, their coach.

So there you go. Italy to beat Portugal in the final. Just don't say you weren't warned when it's Ukraine v Paraguay on 9 July.

STARS IN OUR EYES: FIVE TO WATCH IN GERMANY

1 DIDIER ZOKORA Ivory Coast Competitive defensive midfielder who doesn't mind the physical stuff one little bit. Sent off in a friendly against Chile on Tuesday so will have to get that out of his system before next Saturday's opener against Argentina. Saint-Etienne are already resigned to losing him; the only questions that remain are to where and for how much. Manchester United are said to be front-runners.

2 HATEM TRABELSI Tunisia Long renowned as one of the foremost right-backs around, he's another who could well be Premiership-bound, his Ajax career having run its course. A former winger, he'll constantly strain at the reins for the overlap. Quick enough to ensure covering back isn't sacrificed. The Tunisian captain will be playing in his third World Cup and attempting to lead his country into the last 16 for the "rst time.

3 DIRK KUYT Holland Scored 24 league goals for Feyenoord and caught the eye of many potential suitors last season and yet because of Ruud van Nistelrooy, he's more of a right-winger for Holland, keeping Bayern Munich striker Roy Makaay out of the squad. Only in Marco van Basten's new ego-free Holland could that be contemplated without resulting in ructions. Honest as a polygraph and a deadly finisher if the chance presents itself.

4 LUCA TONI Italy Not unlike Kuyt at Feyenoord, came from nowhere to carry Fiorentina to a wholly unforeseen fourth place in Serie A last season with 31 goals.

Does tend to snap at the odd chance but accusations that he misses a multiple of the ones he scores are harsh. At 6'5'' he is excellent in the air and strong on the ball. A front three of him, Francesco Totti and Alberto Gilardino could be formidable.

5 ANDRII RUSOL Ukraine Centre-half who is the most important discovery of the past three years in Ukraine and who played every minute of qualifying.

Classy reader of a game, he's constantly a move ahead of most on the pitch in his head. A lot of attention will obviously be centred on Andriy Shevchenko and Ruslan Rotan will open a few eyes, but Rusol will be just as vital to Ukraine's advancement.