THIS time, the elephant in the room is too big to ignore. Italian football is used to preparing for World Cups amidst scandal and controversy. In 1982, it was match-fixing, in 1994, the dropping of Gianluca Vialli (who reacted by helpfully saying he'd be supporting Brazil), in 1998, the accusations that Juventus players were using performance-enhancing drugs (allegations of which they were fully cleared following a long trial). But this time, the 'Moggigate' affair has left Italy stunned to the point that any analysis of the Azzurri's chances in Germany has to necessarily start with the former railwayman who made or received an average of 416 mobile calls a day.
According to prosecutors, Luciano Moggi effectively established a parallel power structure which ran the Italian game. It was he who determined the fortunes of referees, FA officials and the countless smaller clubs who were drawn into his orbit. It was he who, via GEA World, the football agency run by his son, controlled the fates of 200 odd footballers and 59 managers and directors of football in Serie A, Serie B and Serie C. And, of course, prosecutors maintain it was he who fixed Juventus's titles in 2004-05 and 2005-06 (and goodness knows how many other seasons. . . ).
The knock-on effects of the Moggi scandal will inevitably affect Italy in the World Cup.
For starters, Italy's most important representatives on FIFA's committees . . . Italian FA Chief Executive Franco Carraro and former referee Paolo Bergamo, who sits on the all-important referees' committee . . . have been suspended pending investigation and face very serious charges. While, bizarrely, they retain their seats within world football's governing body, their credibility within FIFA has been severely undermined and Italians . . .
ever the conspiracy theorists . . . fear it will mean the Azzurri will be punished with more mediocre officials in the mould of Byron Moreno, the Ecuadorian ref who made a complete hash of their secondround match against Korea in 2002.
Indeed, none other than Franz Beckenbauer ominously sounded the alarm bell when he gloated: "I don't see how these scandals could not affect Italy within the game's power structure. . . I suspect Italy will pay a price on the pitch."
In some ways, Beckenbauer's words give Italy a convenient excuse: he couldn't have been clearer, which means that, if they falter, the team will simply be paying for the misdeeds of its bosses. Yet midfielder Simone Perrotta left no room for doubt: "It's up to us to make Beckenbauer eat his words, " he said. "I'm one of those who still believes World Cups are decided on the pitch, not in backrooms. What happened with Moggi, if proven, is horrible and an embarrassment.
But we, as a team, can't let it affect us."
The problem for Italy is that Marcello Lippi, the manager, is indirectly implicated in the whole affair. The wiretap transcripts reveal that Moggi boasted to people that, via Lippi, he could have whomever he wanted called up to the national team. And, according to magistrates, Lippi gave away easy caps to GEA World clients. It's an accusation which he refutes and which is difficult to prove.
Of the current squad, three were represented by GEA World: right-back Massimo Oddo, central-defender Marco Materazzi (who has since severed his ties) and striker Vincenzo Iaquinta.
The first two unquestionably deserved their call-ups, Iaquinta is a more marginal case, though given the injury to Christian Vieri and the nightmare season endured by Antonio Cassano in Madrid, his selection was perhaps inevitable.
On the pitch, Lippi finds himself in an unusual position for Italian managers: he has many more gifted forward players than defenders.
As a result, we're likely to see a far more attacking Azzurri side than in previous campaigns.
"I pick the formation based on the players available to me, " he says. "If we don't have a lot of defensive depth or a lot of holding midfielders, it would be silly to play defensive football."
Thus, Italy will field a 4-31-2 formation, with Francesco Totti (who has recently returned from injury) in the hole behind strikers Luca Toni and Alberto Gilardino.
It's an intriguing combination: between them, they scored 63 league goals this season (led by Toni's 31, which won Europe's Golden Boot).
By contrast, Brazil's front three of Ronaldo, Adriano and Ronaldinho managed 46.
Long, tall Toni . . . a late bloomer who was hampered by injury early in his career . . .
is a footballing paradox: a 6' 5" giant who moves with the grace of a much-smaller man.
Totti will be eager to put the disappointments of 2002 (when he was sent off against Korea in the second round) and 2004 (when he spat at Denmark's Christian Poulsen, earning himself a six-match ban) behind him and prove his quality on the big stage, something he rarely gets to do at Roma.
The midfield will be run by Andrea Pirlo, who is coming off a disappointing season but remains an intriguing figure as the side's deep-lying playmaker. Everything will go through him and he has the creativity to unlock the tightest defences. Joining him will be two out of Rino Gattuso, Mauro Camoranesi and Daniele De Rossi. The latter is an exciting prospect, a tough-tackling midfielder with drive and charisma, something of a poor man's Steven Gerrard. Gattuso will do his usual blood-and-guts routine, while Camoranesi is a bit of an enigma following a nightmarish season culminating in his bizarre sendingoff at Highbury against Arsenal when he blew kisses at the fans while walking off the pitch.
The defence, traditionally Italy's strongest suit, is far from impregnable. The central pairing of Alessandro Nesta and Fabio Cannavaro remains one of the stronger tandems around, though the former has had a difficult season and the latter turns 33 in September and seems to have lost a step. More worryingly, there is little cover, with the foul-prone Materazzi and the untested Andrea Barzagli. At least Italy are solid at full-back: Oddo was one of the top right-backs in Europe last season, while Gianluca Zambrotta remains the best in the business down the left, though he will miss the first game against Ghana with a thigh injury.
Meanwhile, goalkeeper Gigi Buffon has plenty of offthe-pitch concerns after it was revealed he bet large amounts of money on football matches. The investigation is on-going and the consequences could be serious, as . . . unlike England, where players are only barred from wagering on matches in which they are involved . . .
all Italian professional athletes are prohibited from engaging in gambling of any kind. Buffon maintains he made his bets before the ban was introduced in November of 2005 and, in any case, he claims he only bet on overseas football. Whether or not it will affect him depends entirely on whether he is telling the truth. If his conscience is clear, he has nothing to fear, if he broke the rules, he could be in serious trouble when he returns.
Despite the off-field circus, expectations . . . as always . . .are high. Italy notched good wins over Holland (3-1 away) and Germany (4-1, in a match where they could have scored seven or eight) in the run-up to the competition. In a field with just one outstanding team . . . Brazil . . . there's a sense that, with a bit of luck, anything can happen. Yet still, Moggi's cloud hangs over this team. Then again, it might not be a bad thing. Germany 2006 could be the opportunity to simply focus on football, before returning home to the insanity that Serie A has become.
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