So, it's best to cut to the chase.

I never thought England would win the World Cup with Wayne Rooney, and they have absolutely no chance without him.

If they fail to qualify from their group, then Sven Goran Eriksson would be best advised not to set foot in London again, but if they go out in the quarter-finals, as I believe they will, then the manager will have a ready-made excuse in Rooney's injury.

Rooney is one of the top five players in the world, and it goes without saying that he'll be a massive loss. He might be a better bet in the knockout stages than anyone else, but it's impossible to see him being sharp enough to make the desired impact.

The good news for England is that for the most part, the side is superior to the one which played at the last European Championships. Paul Robinson is infinitely more reliable than David James, and the likely back four of Gary Neville, John Terry, Rio Ferdinand and Ashley Cole has physical strength, pace and experience.

A midfield which includes Steven Gerrard, Frank Lampard and the vastly improved Joe Cole is comparable to anything in the competition bar Brazil and possibly Argentina, and while there's no doubt that David Beckham is now much less of a factor from open play, his free-kicks and crosses remain of the highest quality.

So with both Rooney and Michael Owen at full fitness, England were entitled to be regarded as Europe's strongest challenger ahead of Italy, Germany, France, Holland, Spain and the Czech Republic. I would've given them a serious chance of reaching the semi-finals, or at a push, even the final itself.

But if the Rooney situation wasn't damaging enough, there has to be a major doubt over Owen as well. The group matches may be a way of bringing him gradually to the required fitness level, however, up to now he hasn't done anything to make anyone believe that he's back to near his best. In fact, he always gives me the impression that he's one game away from another injury problem. He'll be lucky if he gets through the tournament.

Eriksson is counting on Gerrard and Lampard scoring a few goals from midfield, and on Beckham delivering from set pieces, but with the problems over the two positions up front, there is no logic whatsoever to the suggestion that this tournament represents England's best opportunity since 1966.

Anyway, logic has already been thrown out the window with the selection of Theo Walcott. His inclusion is not a leap of faith by Eriksson, it's more a vote of no confidence in Jermain Defoe and Darren Bent, and because he's so inexperienced, I just can't see how he could cope with the pressure of a major finals. If England find themselves on top in a game, Walcott might be a gamble, but I definitely don't see him as someone to bring on in a difficult situation.

Whether Owen achieves full fitness or not, I think Eriksson should be looking to Peter Crouch. If Owen is in any way struggling with an injury, he'll be anonymous, but you can never say that about Crouch who is a much more effective player than people give him credit for.

He's skilful, he's intelligent, he's playing for England with plenty of confidence now, and there are bound to be defenders in the tournament who'll resort to fouling him which will bring Beckham's free kicks more into the equation.

Curiously, for such a tall player, Crouch is not so strong from orthodox wing crosses, whereas with his back to goal he has a very good touch, and for my money represents the sort of target man who can play Gerrard and Lampard in.

But then, if you find yourself talking about Crouch and an unfit Rooney and Owen, and you move on to Ronaldinho, Kaka, Ronaldo, Adriano, Robinho and Lucio in the same breath, the disparity is crystal-clear. Brazil are strong favourites for these finals for the simple reason that they have more class players than anyone else.

I think we'll see a fitter Ronaldo as the main goalscorer once again, and Ronaldinho, who is clearly a more accomplished player than four years ago, could be sensational if the referees afford him the sort of protection I expect they will. As for team spirit, it's never easy for a manager to keep so many talented players happy, but there is great pride and tradition in Brazilian football, and it's hard to see them not retaining the trophy.

Germany have no class to fall back on apart from Michael Ballack, and while they are invariably competitive and persistent, I don't envisage them as a threat. If Jurgen Klinsmann gets them past the quarter-finals it will be an achievement.

Italy don't have the necessary creativity, and then there's the added disadvantage of the scandal that has rocked their game. Spain are unlikely to figure and Holland will find it hard to get out of their group.

With England now much less of a bet to reach the semifinals, I think France could emerge as the most significant European challenge.

They have players of class and experience in Thierry Henry and Patrick Vieira, while Zinedine Zidane is still capable. I would go as far as to put the French in front of Argentina, who would be third on my list.

As for an outside chance, the Czech Republic look by far the most dangerous of the rest. They're strong, skilful and well organised, and I see them getting to the semi-finals.

That though is where the speculation ends.

Brazil to win.