HANDICAPPING central banks on either side of the Atlantic used to be easy for global market watchers.
Alan Greenspan, aka 'The Maestro', ran the US Federal Reserve like a Swiss watch for 18 years. Financial journalists learned to read his every word and body language to a metaphysical certainty.
Wag traders-turned-presenters on the CNBC cable television network even developed a system to predict an interest rate rise by guessing how heavy Greenspan's briefcase was as he walked across a Washington street into the Fed's Open Markets Committee hearing.
In contrast, the hapless European Central Bank, under the leadership of Wim Duisenberg, was a textbook example of how to confuse and upset markets.
Now all is changed utterly.
Newish ECB head JeanClaude Trichet is a model of sober and predictable clarity, sticking with the script and announcing a well-flagged quarter-point interest rate rise on Thursday, bringing the eurozone rate to 2.75%.
Meanwhile, after a series of media gaffes, new Fed chairman Ben Bernanke is tagged 'Bumblin' Ben' . . . and traders seem to send markets lower every time he opens his mouth.
When did Europe and America's central banks trade places when it came to credibility with global markets? Most date it from the Money Honey affair.
'Money Honey' is the nickname of CNBC presenter Maria Bartiromo, who on 1 May reported on air that, the previous night, at a cocktail party, Ben Bernanke had told her his previous comments about inflation had been misinterpreted by the markets and the media. The market reaction was sharp and unpleasant.
Since then, Bernanke's public utterances has been a source of market volatility.
The worst came last when a Bernanke speech at an international conference on Monday was blamed for a global sell-off the following day, led by Dublin's Iseq, which fell 375.87 points, or nearly 5%.
"Trichet has learned from his predecessor, " said Ulster Bank's financial markets strategist Niall Dunne. While Duisenberg thought it a virtue to keep secret his intentions on interest rates, while dropping hints to favoured journalists, Trichet has established the ECB as reliable and transparent. "He's so polished it's incredible, " says Dunne. Charitably, he says of Bernanke that "he had a tough act to follow."
NCB economist Dermot O'Brien thinks some of Bernanke's press has been unfair. "There's been an overreaction to Bernanke's reputation for dovishness [desire not to raise rates]."
He puts Trichet's easy communication with the markets and media to having a simpler story to tell. Eurozone interest rates have been so low for so long that, for the near term, they're only headed up; the only question is at what rate.
The markets now feel comfortable enough with Trichet, knowing that when he uses a word like 'vigilance' it means further rate rises on the way.
Both O'Brien and Dunne point to plenty of factors that influence the Irish economy, so the message is not to worry too much about trying to guess the direction of interest rates over in Brussels or Washington. "We're a pimple on the arse of the global economy, " says Dunne.
Still, you can bet your pension fund that the next time Bumblin' Ben is spotted at a cocktail party with the Money Honey, the world will be listening closely.
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