IN SUNNY Zurich last week, Irish stock exchange chief Tom Healy was hobnobbing with his European counterparts at their annual conference. "I hope it's raining in Dublin, " said he, uncharitably.
On the public agenda were such jaw-droppingly exciting topics as Mifid, the new European Markets In Financial Instruments Directive. But the issue engrossing attendees was likely to have been rather different: old European blood is rising.
You know it's about more than mifids when French president Jacques Chirac is in a lather about the future of Europe's stock exchanges.
Last Tuesday, Chirac declared his opposition to a merger between the New York stock exchange and Euronext, the Paris-based stock exchange operator.
"I will not hide the fact that I favour the FrancoGerman solution for reasons of principle, " he told a Franco-German summit.
So there it is on the table.
Whatever about European companies' talk of fears of Sarbanes-Oxley rules, it's surrender to the Americans that's galling Chirac.
German chancellor Angela Merkel's view that the merger is a "purely economic decision" seems more realistically pragmatic.
Whatever gavottes may be danced over the next few weeks, one sure thing is that more European stock exchange consolidation is coming. It is also certain that trickle-down is inevitable for relative minnows such as Ireland, though the ISE might not be as hardpressed as other smaller exchanges in the short term.
"We can afford to wait and see what happens, " Healy said.
The ISE has the advantage that it already uses Deutsche Boerse's state-of-the-art Xetra system. It is also highly unusual in that two-thirds of its income comes from funds and debt securities listings.
Depending on who you talk to, the success of the listings move was either a result of brilliant prescience or a fabulously happy accident.
But it worked. Doommongers have been predicting the ISE's demise for years, but it is a moneymaking machine, throwing off after-tax profits of 6m 10m.
Some worry that the ISE is dominated on the equity side by a few large stocks.
Cheerleaders point to the fact that growth is being driven by booming performers such as Ryanair, Kingspan and Anglo Irish Bank. Davy Stockbrokers has heavily pushed Iex, Dublin's answer to London's Aim. Calyx will tomorrow become the 16th company to float on Iex since it kicked off in April 2005.
The signs aren't bad, but the ISE knows it can't afford to rest on its laurels. It created its own niche in debt securities, but swiped much of the funds listings business from Luxembourg. Other upstarts could be prowling.
Poland, Latvia, Malta could all have a sniff.
In the end, does it matter if the ISE is taken over?
Probably not. Business will continue apace no matter who owns it. Brokers won't care as long as there is trading liquidity. From the 'Ireland Inc' viewpoint, what matters is the existence of a local exchange providing a strong local corporate offering.
The argument is often made that having companies quoted in Dublin gives focus and keeps them in investors' minds. You might consider this thinking a tiny bit tricolour-tinted, given that 80% of shares traded on the Irish stock market are foreign-owned. But few would contest the argument that it makes sense for companies with mainly Irish-based business to have an Irish listing.
Investors will then have some clue what they are talking about.
As the exchange snuffles around for new listings business and other new opportunities, the bigger picture of its future will be drawn by the eight stockbrokers that own it. It is already on track for demutualisation, and sources suggest this is likely to happen by the end of this year.
What are the bets that the ISE could be in foreign ownership by the end of next year? Given that it is already using Xetra, doesn't Deutsche Boerse seem a likely candidate?
Guesstimates of the value of the ISE range from 100m to 200m. Even a sale at the bottom of the range would represent more than weissbier money for a couple of the smaller brokers.
|