'A LOT done, more to do.' It was the perfect slogan for Fianna Fail at the last general election. In just six words, it said everything the party wanted to say . . . 'we have achieved a lot in five years and when . . . not if . . . returned, there are a new whole list of priorities to be tackled, and our track record shows that tackled they will be'.
Four years on and admiration for the slogan has only increased, particularly when we look back at Fine Gael election posters of Michael Noonan with the line 'I will legislate for social justice', which has to be the slogan equivalent of legendary Times headline: 'Small earthquake in Chile; not many dead'.
But clever and all as the Fianna Fail line was, we now know it was entirely misleading. It should simply have read 'A lot done'. Because, while the government had probably lived up to the first part of the slogan, it has manifestly failed to continue the good work.
Opposition parties wouldn't accept it, nor would many in the media who refuse to acknowledge any PD achievements, but there is little doubt that the 1997-2002 incarnation of the FF/PD coalition was a decent government. Not perfect by any means, but certainly as good, if not better, than any government in previous decades, particularly given the external shocks it had to withstand from Dublin Castle.
Don't take my word for it, take the electorate's, which decided to return a government to office for the first time since 1969. Sure, it was helped by a booming economy, but FF/PDs played a big part in driving that economy. The government's list of achievements was considerable. The introduction of tax credits was a hugely equitable move. It also oversaw massive and longoverdue tax cuts. And, despite the myths about Champagne Charlie, those McCreevy tax cuts actually benefited those on the average industrial wage most of all. When Fianna Fail and the PDs took office, a single person earning £12,000 a year paid over a whopping 18.3% of his or her salary in tax. By 2002, that had fallen to 1.8%.
The government was also responsible for the minimum wage, individualisation, the £100-a-week old-age pension and (with a little help from the courts) taxi deregulation. It also oversaw the historic Belfast Agreement which, let's be blunt, the previous Rainbow administration could not have delivered in a month of Good Fridays.
Come election time 2002, the government had an impressive report card to present to voters, who responded accordingly. Those achievements served to neutralise some not insubstantial negatives, including the tribunals, the O'Flaherty affair and quality-of-life issues.
The problem for the Fianna Fail/PD coalition is that it continues to run into controversies (what government doesn't? ) but this time around, it has few positives to counteract them. Fianna Fail deputies are understandably worried about how the government's handling of the statutory rape crisis will damage their support. But surely the lesson of 1997-'02 is that, if the government is otherwise performing, the electorate will forgive and forget.
In 2000, at the height of the O'Flaherty affair, there were widespread predictions the electorate would be waiting in the long grass for the government. But the electorate has better things to be doing that hanging around in long grass. There was considerable anger about O'Flaherty being nominated to the EIB, but two years later, the electorate voted for who it thought would provide best government.
Voters are not stupid. They know that the statutory rape issue and the nursing home illegal charges could have happened to any government. But it becomes a problem when such crises are regarded as reflecting the government's general incompetence. And that is certainly the current perception.
The harsh reality for FF/PDs is that they have little or nothing to show for the last four years. We can all point to the disasters: the health service; electronic voting; decentralisation; the aforementioned statutory rape fiasco and the second Dublin Airport terminal fiasco. But what have been the big achievements of the government since 2002? What has their big idea been?
Leaving aside the reasonable handling of the economy/public finances . . . a necessary but not sufficient criteria for government . . . it is difficult to think of anything major. Both government parties have been largely bereft of innovation.
This lack of achievement is at the root of the government's current unpopularity. Imagine, for example, if a Dublin metro line or two were due to be opened next year (as could and should have happened), or if hundreds of new buses had appeared in the capital city, or if the vested interests in the health service had been taken on and defeated, or a radical energy alternative to oil had been adopted, or if the government had asserted the primacy of the public good over private property in relation to housing. Would we still be talking about Fianna Fail losing 20 seats in the next election? No chance.
The reality is that too many ministers and the government as a whole have underperformed since 2002. If Fianna Fail and the PDs lose the next election . . .
a highly plausible scenario . . . it will have more to do with their failure to deliver than their handling of statutory rape.
Twelve months to an election . . . feck all done, a helluva lot to do.
|