IN LIFE, we are certain of our certainties. We all know about death, taxes and Essex girls. Here's another one for the list. If a match is in the 70th minute and it's still up for grabs and the All Blacks are one of the participants, you put your house on them. They never lose in that scenario.
At the end of a match, a match which was a blind amalgam of breathtaking brilliance and head-scratching ambivalence, the result was probably a true reflection of what it said on the scoreboard. This will go down as probably the best missed opportunity Ireland have had to beat the world rugby maestros.
But the statistics are stark and mightn't bear any relevance to what you think you saw on the screen.
New Zealand had 71% of the possession for the entire game and well in the sixties in terms of field position. They also held Ireland scoreless for the last 33 minutes, so no injustice was done.
The better side won. The fact that Ireland were so close came down to a number of factors. Again it charts the level of confidence and ambition in this team and it further embellishes the prospect of improvement on their road map of ambition. Having said that, they're looking down both barrels in a week's time.
Why were Ireland able to compete?
Primarily, they laid down a gloopy green soup along their defensive line and it was like running into an industrial vat of mushy peas. New Zealand could very rarely dictate the battle of the contact zone.
Very often throughout the match they were put back on their arse or they had six- or seven-second ruck ball. Ireland were dictating the pace of the game at the breakdown and it didn't suit New Zealand who need the gain line for their running game.
Ireland also had the will to chase, hassle and harry. It sounds like the name of a law firm or a debt collecting agency, but that's what they did for 70 minutes and it got up New Zealand's nose. Having said that, there was no panic in the New Zealand rank and they just knew that if it took 60 or 70 minutes to break Ireland down, well then so be it. They would be patient and bide their time. They left it very late.
Most New Zealand commentators might think it oddly quaint that Ireland still like to kick the ball away to touch and play their pressure game at lineout time, deep within opposition territory. But for large parts of the game yesterday this worked. Ireland were wonderfully aggressive and managed to nick four balls against the throw. And none could be attributed to poor throwing by Keven Mealamu. As ever, New Zealand sorted out all of these problems late in the game, and with the addition of Troy Flavell and Jerome Kaino, New Zealand upped their intensity and managed to apply pressure without making any mistakes themselves. Ireland managed to self-combust as the pressure came on and conceded some vital and silly penalties.
I've never rated Graham Henry. He didn't do much when he was in charge in Wales, but then again he mightn't have had the personnel. He will in all probability produce the World Cup in 2007 for a waiting nation. He got a couple of things right yesterday. Sometimes, when a game plan dictates that you put pressure in a certain area, the game mightn't necessarily be the type of game where you can apply that pressure. Yesterday the All Blacks went after Ronan O'Gara and it paid serious dividends for them. O'Gara is vital for Ireland, and since Humphries is gone there is a massive void, but the weaknesses in his game just have to be bolstered. O'Gara did many things well yesterday, but it was his mistakes that cost Ireland dear. In the first minute, Ireland got off to a dreadful start. The ball was kicked to Mealamu. He went to contact. New Zealand, even from the off, had no intention of kicking this ball dead, and McAlister, instead of heading into the pocket, took up a flat position and went left from the recycle. Kelleher switched direction and floated a nice ball into Mils Muliaina. He ran straight and accelerated. It wasn't so much that O'Gara missed his man, it was the ease with which his tackle was beaten.
O'Connell was too far away to cover. The truly outstanding Aaron Mauger took it on, fixed both of Ireland's covering wingers, and his pass was enough to get into the corner.
Forty-three minutes later New Zealand scored their second try. It was a moment of breathtaking skill. McAlister, as he had done throughout most of the match, just ran straight at O'Gara.
He could have run through the tackle but he popped up a delicious blind pass to Joe Rokocoko. D'Arcy was left beaten on the inside and O'Driscoll had to come across to take Rokocoko. Once that happens, it's all over. Rokocoko flicked out to Nonu who threw a pass to Mauger who was forced to reach, stoop and take it one-handed at full pace and direct a perfectly floated pass into the bread-basket for Muliaina to accelerate and score.
Two tries can be attributed to O'Gara.
He had another number of missed tackles. He was hit by Mauger while dithering in the outfield and he threw a couple of poor passes, one to his captain at a vital moment and he also missed a pressure penalty in the 66th minute. O'Gara also did many good things for Ireland but he must maintain concentration in these games.
The clinch play came in the 70th minute. It looked like Ireland would make ground when the ball went through Murphy, O'Driscoll and O'Connell, but O'Connell's pass was intercepted and Mauger kicked it long.
Trimble did well to recover, running back nearly the length of the field. But with O'Gara, Trimble, Leamy, Murphy and Best in the ruck, Hayes and O'Callaghan guarding it, and Flannery and O'Connell in an off-side position, Peter Stringer made one of the poorest decisions of his life. He looked outside him five times to see what options were on. Maybe Horgan called for it, but a chip over the ruck when your forwards are out on their feet is at the very best a 5% play.
Horgan was nowhere near the bounce. O'Connell got it into his paws but couldn't control it and eventually it came to Nonu. To compound his original error, Stringer tried to take him high. He was brushed aside and Flavell scored under the sticks. Game over.
Ireland couldn't take advantage of the two excellent tries and should really have capitalised on some of the better turnovers. Their mindset for next week will be very difficult to set at the right level because they know there's another 40-pointer coming. Great performance, missed opportunity.
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