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Destiny? More like incredible luck
Shane Coleman



THE one truly remarkable thing about Charles Haughey's funeral on Friday was the fact that a serving Fianna Fail Taoiseach delivered his graveside oration.

It's not that it's remarkable that Bertie Ahern would want to give the oration, just that he was able to do so as Taoiseach.

Haughey's legacy could . . .some would say should . . . have condemned Fianna Fail to the political wilderness forever, but remarkably the party remains the dominant force in Irish politics and there are no strong indicators that this will change. Love or hate the Soldiers of Destiny, that has to be acknowledged as a major achievement.

Consider for a moment if, in the wake of the election of Mary Robinson . . . a key turning point in Irish politics and the beginning of the end of Haughey's tenure as Taoiseach . . . we had been told of what would lie ahead for Fianna Fail and the country. That it would emerge that Haughey had received millions from businessmen; that we would hear stories of lavish spending on Charvet shirts; of donations being trousered; of passports for sale; of blank cheques and of Ansbacher accounts being held by an elite. That two other senior members of that government, Ray Burke and Padraig Flynn, would be immersed in controversy as a result of investigations by the Flood/Mahon tribunal into planning corruption. And that Flood/Mahon and the Moriarty tribunals would expose how public business was conducted over the previous decades, producing a mind-blowing and unrelenting stream of allegations and revelations concerning Fianna Fail more than anybody else.

And consider also if we were told that, over the next 15 years, Ireland would undergo the most radical socio-economic changes in its history. That it would become a modern, pluralist . . . some would say secular . . . extremely wealthy and sophisticated country, with many of its inhabitants developing a distaste for politics and politicians.

Armed with this knowledge, it would have been impossible to see a prosperous future for Fianna Fail. In Italy, in the early 1990s, the Christian Democrats . . . which had held power since the second world war . . . virtually disappeared following the 'clean hands' investigations into corruption. Why would the same not happen to Fianna Fail?

But of course our predictions would have been hopelessly misguided. Not only has Fianna Fail survived, but it has continued its domination of politics. In the last general election . . . fought after five years of hugely embarrassing and disturbing revelations down in Dublin Castle . . . Fianna Fail emerged with a 50-seat lead over its nearest rivals.

How has it managed to survive and prosper in such circumstances? Some of it is unquestionably down to luck. The drip-feed nature of the damaging revelations has undoubtedly helped. If the tribunals had been held behind closed doors and all the revelations emerged in one or two big-bang reports, there is no doubt that the impact would have been greater.

Two crucial decisions taken by its rivals with regards to elections also hugely benefited Fianna Fail. In 1994, after the Fianna Fail-Labour government collapsed over the handling of the Fr Brendan Smyth affair, the party was probably at its lowest ebb, with the public holding it responsible for the debacle. If Fine Gael had insisted on the need for a general election then . . . to allow the public give a fresh mandate to govern . . . Fianna Fail would have undoubtedly been annihilated. It is understandable, given the party had been out of power for eight years, that John Bruton opted to form a government with Labour and Democratic Left without an election. But within two and a half years, Fianna Fail had consolidated under Bertie Ahern and was back in government and benefiting from the state's greatest ever boom.

The timing of that general election in 1997 also proved fortuitous for Fianna Fail. The story is that John Bruton wanted to wait until the autumn for an election, but his partners in government persuaded him a June date was more favourable.

Many commentators believe that if the Rainbow had waited, the revelations that emerged from Dublin Castle would have tipped what was a very tight general election in its favour.

But it would churlish to put Fianna Fail's survival and good health simply down to good luck. Bertie Ahern's popularity has been a big factor in its success since the low of 1994. The party has also shown an unrivalled ability to adapt and change with the times. Ireland may have changed dramatically over the past 20 years, but Fianna Fail has changed with it.

And for all the damaging headlines Haughey created, his decision to abandon the core principle of refusing to go into coalition government has allowed Fianna Fail to retain its status as the natural party of government, despite a slow slide in its core support over the years. That is one Haughey legacy for which Fianna Fail should be eternally grateful.




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