In a newspaper interview in December 2005, Mary Harney had speculated about her political future. "I hope I'm going to retire as leader of the party before I am 60, " the 52-year old Harney said. But in private conversations with several senior PD colleagues, Harney gave every indication that she planned to stand down as leader before the general election in 2007. Nobody knew exactly what way her mind was working, but senior PD figures were first led to believe that a retirement announcement would be made shortly after the party's 20th anniversary celebrations last December. When that did not happen, the news was expected at the time of the PD national conference two months ago.

There was never a Gordon BrowneTony Blair-type pact over the PD leadership between Mary Harney and Michael McDowell, as was widely reported last week. McDowell, however, was not alone in believing that Harney was intent on stepping down as leader. Several senior party figures contacted this weekend admitted that Harney's leadership plans had been a source of uncertainty for some time. McDowell looked at this scenario and speculated about the leadership election he would face . . . most likely against Liz O'Donnell and possibly Tom Parlon. "I certainly believe that Michael was led to believe that Mary was not going to continue as leader, " one senior PD figure said.

The ambiguity about Harney's future was hampering general election planning, notwithstanding the success in attracting Colm O'Gorman as a candidate in Wexford. It was against this background that in Birr last weekend, Wyer . . . a party veteran who for many years had organised the party's election campaigns in Galway West . . . volunteered to ask the awkward question.

"What are your plans for the leadership?" he ventured before the general council meeting got under way yesterday week. Harney, for the first time, confirmed that she was staying in the job she had won in a divisive leadership contest with Pat Cox in late 1993.

Thunderbolt News of Harney's decision hit McDowell like a thunderbolt. Relations between the justice minister and his leader had been poor for some time. He was still smarting over her lack of support at cabinet for his plans to deal with the Supreme Court decision on statutory rape cases. Harney had sided with the more pragmatic Fianna Fail preference for quick-fix legislation rather than the fundamental reform, including lowering the age of consent, proposed by McDowell.

For her part, Harney was annoyed with her colleague's aggressive performance when the Dail sat to pass the emergency legislation on statutory rape.

She was also put out at Senator Tom Morrissey publishing a private members' bill on personal protection . . . with McDowell's assistance . . . which had not received party approval. An internal discussion about Morrissey's bill two weeks ago led to sharp criticism by each side about the general state of electoral preparedness.

Last Saturday night, McDowell slept on Harney's Birr declaration. He was faced with the distinct realisation that he may now never lead the party he had helped to found two decades previously. He had stood aside from the 1993 leadership contest despite several colleagues arguing at the time that he would beat both Harney and Cox for the job. Now the prize had been swiped from under his grasp.

The party's three trustees were invited to a meeting in McDowell's constituency office in Ranelagh last Sunday evening. Financial expert Brendan Malone and Noirin Slattery, who works in PD headquarters, travelled to Ranelagh, along with another trustee, Paul Mackay, in the knowledge that they would meet a bitterly disappointed McDowell.

The situation was far worse. McDowell had looked at the political landscape and at his own future in politics. With the prospect of the PD leadership gone, he was giving serious consideration to walking away from political life. McDowell had tasted electoral defeat twice previously. He was scarred by the 1997 rejection when he lost by a handful of votes in Dublin South-East and was then forced to watch from the sidelines as his battered party regrouped to forge a coalition alliance with Fianna Fail. He was unconvinced about the PDs' prospects at the next election. Maybe now was the time to get out, he told his colleagues.

Alarm The trustees were alarmed at McDowell's decision. As they left Ranelagh, contact was made with Harney. Paul Mackay is probably the most influential non-politician in the PDs. An accountant by profession, he was at the top table at the press conference announcing the establishment of the PDs in late 1985 and had secured the bank loan which allowed the party to purchase its South Frederick Street headquarters.

On Monday evening, Mackay outlined McDowell's position. Harney was not impressed. She made it clear that if McDowell was not going to contest the next election, then there was little value for the PDs in his remaining as a cabinet minister. The discussion was heated.

The tensions between Harney and McDowell over the previous months were finally boiling over.

McDowell was frustrated at Harney's decision to stay on. Harney was furious with his response. He was talking about quitting. She was talking about sacking.

The row eventually came to a head on Tuesday evening when the party's TDs, senators and trustees met in Leinster House. A letter from the trustees outlining the sequence of events over the previous few days was read out by Mackay.

It was made clear that should McDowell or Harney leave, others would follow.

Hard words were exchanged.

The state of the party ahead of the next general election divided opinion, as well as just what signals Harney had given McDowell and others about her thinking on the leadership question. He accepted Harney's decision but was . . .

according to one reliable source . . . "very pissed off" about her lack of communication. The airing of views was described as "cathartic" by another senior figure.

The meeting lasted for almost three hours, but concluded with at least one person present shedding tears, and Harney and McDowell embracing.

On Tuesday evening, the various factions retired bruised, but in agreement that the internal debate was over and was not to be discussed in public. "That should have been the end of it. But then someone decided to leak information and cast Michael as the villain, which is far from the truth, " one senior PD figure claimed this weekend.

Leaks In fact, the leaking had taken place ahead of the Tuesday evening meeting. It was widely reported on Thursday that McDowell was launching a leadership heave. "The issue of the leadership of the party doesn't arise, " Harney told reporters when she was questioned on Thursday. "No threats were made by either Michael McDowell or me. We don't operate on the basis of threats like that."

No party ever gains from a divisive, bitter leadership battle and that reality is even more so in the case of a small political party like the PDs. The party split in the aftermath of Harney replacing Des O'Malley. The defeated candidate, Pat Cox, walked away while Martin Cullen left for Fianna Fail. A similar row now could tear the party apart, especially so close to a general election.

Small parties like the PDs live on the cusp of political extinction; every general election is a fight for electoral survival. Currently, with eight TDs and four senators, the party might on the surface appear in a decent position, but almost every PD politician faces a battle for survival.

With even a mild backlash against the current coalition . . . and a strong Fine Gael performance . . . the next election could be highly problematic for the PDs.

Damage The last week has been very damaging for the party. McDowell can, however, take little comfort from the events of last week. If there was a leadership election now he would probably emerge victorious under the PDs' three-tier voting system, which gives a 40% say to the parliamentary party, 30% to councillors and general council members and 30% to the wider party membership.

But crucially, the debate last week has shown that he enjoys little support among his parliamentary colleagues. Only Noel Grealish in Galway West and Senator Tom Morrissey, who is to run in Dublin North, can be counted as McDowellites.

Liz O'Donnell and John Minihan are the staunchest of opponents of the Dublin South-East politician.

Words used by senior PD figures to describe McDowell's apparent actions last week include "extraordinary", "madness", "stupid" and "bizarre". There is bafflement in PD circles. "If he was going to mount a leadership challenge, well then, where was the cabal around him.

Where was his gang?" one Harney supporter said. "I was involved in the past in leadership heaves and I can tell you we didn't have any heave in the PDs this week, " Harney surmised.

The reality would seem to be, however, that McDowell was not mounting a leadership challenge, but rather responding to the natural disappointment at having the top job dangled in front on him only for it to be then taken away. But his response to that situation . . . and his talk of retiring . . . may actually have put the leadership out of his grasp, possibly forever.