I'm pretty certain that we don't have any real problems but I'm not absolutely certain. I'm wondering how good a team we've really got. I think a lot of the guys are asking themselves the same question. No one's saying anything out loud, but I can feel it, I can sense it."

Joe Kernan didn't write that passage; it was penned by another JK, Jerry Kramer of the Green Bay Packers, in his classic Instant Replay as his team sought a third consecutive Superbowl under Kernan's coaching hero, Vince Lombardi. They're Kernan's sentiments though, while not his lines. As much as he's pedaled the point that four members of the defence alone are 23 or younger, Armagh '05 and '06 have Loughnane's Clare of '98 and '99 written all over them.

They might have some new blood, they might remind us why they were champions, they might even at times appear potential champions again. But deep down Kernan must fear that down the line he'll be saying what Loughnane and Considine ultimately conceded . . . that all those battles, all those knocks, all these (unnecessary) replays against the likes of Donegal, Monaghan and Fermanagh took their toll.

There have been clear signs of slippage. In the league they conceded more goals than any other Division One team. A fortnight ago they conceded two more. The last time they conceded two goals in an Ulster championship game was the 1999 first-round drawn game against Donegal . . . 20 Ulster championship games ago.

The last time they let two in in any championship game was the 2001 qualifier against Down; that was 27 games ago.

And yet it would have been only a game ago if Tomas Freeman's finishing was that of one of the country's top 10 forwards, as opposed to the top-20 forward he currently is. Francie and Enda aren't what they used to be. Some day it'll really show and tell.

Today might not be that day. While Fermanagh's named team is surely a dummy team, it's hard to see what line-up will kick the necessary number of points to win if Armagh hold them to a goal or less. This is not 2004;

opposing wing backs, especially those from Armagh, are wise to Mark Little and Eamon Maguire playing for frees, and instead will force them to score from play.

That's Fermanagh's problem, something that was clearly evident in the closing 15 minutes the last day; the lack of players willing to shoot, let alone score, from out the field.

Shane McDermott, if he pushes up, might pop over one. So might James Sherry.

But who else? Tom Brewster scored one wonderful point the last day, but he's never really developed into the consistent long-range shooter in the mould of Munnelly or McConville that he promised to be in his rookie year of '99;

his last free in the drawn game carried even less conviction than his anemic effort in the closing minutes of the 2004 All Ireland semi-final replay. Fermanagh need that third point from play from him today. If not, the selectors should gamble on Jonathon McGurn; while he might get slower as the ground gets harder, the kid showed in the league he's one Erneman willing and able to belt one over from distance.

This will be close. Fermanagh have the midfielders on the field and in reserve to win their share of ball. But Armagh move the ball quicker and better out of defence than ever before, their record in replays is impeccable and Stevie McDonnell is due a goal. Kramer's team ended up winning that third straight Superbowl. Whatever about winning a third straight Ulster title, Armagh should reach a third straight final. As Kramer put it at the end of that diary entry, "I think the carcass is going to get up this week". Armagh by three.

FERMANAGH C Breen; R McCluskey, B Owen, S Goan; P Sherry, H Brady, S McDermott; L McBarron, M Murphy; M Little, T Brewster, E Maguire; C Bradley, S Doherty, C O'Reilly

ARMAGH (probable) P Hearty; A Mallon, F Bellew, E McNulty; A Kernan, K McKeever, P Duffy; K McGeeney, P McGrane; P McKeever, S Kernan, M Mackin; S McDonnell, R Clarke, O McConville

ULSTER SFC SEMI-FINAL REPLAY ARMAGH v FERMANAGH Clones, 3.30 Referee P Russell (Tipperary) Extra time if necessary