ONCE again, England and the bookies are expecting an easy ride today but that's disrespectful to what Ecuador have done so far in this tournament. I wouldn't read anything at all into Germany beating them 3-0. Ecuador rested a lot of players and I think it was down to the fact they didn't care whether they got England or Sweden: they are confident of beating either one.
They have a hell of a chance of causing one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history and for England to underestimate them and fall into the fans' trap of thinking it's a formality could see them come unstuck. So far, there have been no grounds for such optimism from England's performances.
Sven Goran Eriksson looks like he really wants to play a five-man midfield and I would expect him to do so today at the expense of Peter Crouch, with a holding player either Michael Carrick or Owen Hargreaves behind the midfield quartet, and Wayne Rooney up front on his own. That would give Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard the licence to get up around Rooney when England are on the offensive.
But I don't think that's the right move. I don't see how you can go into such a match and try a system you've never really played before. It's all a bit haphazard and that's the one thing that's been common in all of England's performances so far. There's no sureness to what they're doing or any sense of a gameplan. I'm not sure the players are actually going onto the pitch with a clear indication of what way they're supposed to play. And if he does revert to a five-man midfield, it will probably cause more confusion on top of that.
Rooney showed a lot of dissent when taken off against Sweden and that doesn't augur well. There doesn't seem to be the right kind of spirit about this English group. There has been talk in the English papers that there's some upset amongst the players and I think the performances give that impression as well.
When the matches with Paraguay and Sweden were going against them, they didn't seem to be really fighting for each other and perhaps Rooney's dissent is evidence of that.
As well as that, I can't pick out one England player who has had an outstanding World Cup so far. Gerrard has obviously made a contribution with his goals, while Joe Cole did well against Sweden but he's been very hit-andmiss, coming inside and losing the ball a lot. There doesn't seem to be any one player in form who can truly make a difference.
There's no rhythm to their play and there's very little to talk about in the positive for England. On the other hand, look at Ecuador. Typically South American, they score goals from play through good build-up, passing and plenty of movement from their forwards particularly Luis Valencia (right), who I think has been one of the outstanding players of the competition so far. That's what England might have a problem with.
I've read rubbish like you don't want to peak too early but that's ridiculous.
You've got to be playing well going into the knock-out stages because you don't just find your form from nowhere. That's why I think Ecuador will give them a fright today and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they beat England.
Apart from that, there's a few other second-round games that are very difficult to call, most notably Portugal and Holland. Both have done well without setting the tournament alight but I would just side with Holland. They look more of a team than Portugal, but there's going to be very little in it. The other one is Spain and France.
Spain are on a high but I think France have the players to come good and that win against Togo will be a huge boost. They got a couple of goals and played reasonably well.
Again, like Holland, I would slightly favour France.
Brazil and Ghana could be one of the games of the tournament. Ghana are big, strong and attacking and have been a revelation in this tournament. They've got the short straw getting Brazil and missing Michael Essien who has proven for his country that he's a top-class midfield player tips the balance to Brazil. But they will get one tough game.
As for Italy, I think Australia will give them a fight but they should come out of it. The Australians have been very competitive so far and can take a lot of credit from the tournament but the professionalism and know-how of the Italians, particularly defensively, will win them the match. Although I have been disappointed with the Italian forwards and I can't really see them going the distance with their fowards.
Finally, there's the Swiss. They remind me very much of Jack Charlton's Irish teams in that they're well set up, are good at set pieces and have some team spirit.
Ukraine look a bit of a fickle side. Their heads went down in the Spanish match so Switzerland's cohesion should see them continue their good run.
As for potential winners, the best of the European teams so far have been Holland and Germany. Germany have gained momentum with a crowd behind them and all the question marks around Jurgen Klinsmann have fallen away. They are playing with spirit and unity, but the standard of player they've got will ultimately let them down. Brazil are still favourites but I feel they're a bit static up front if Parreira persists with Ronaldo and Adriano. They're so far short of the quick passing movement Argentina showed in the group stage. That, for me, has been the really outstanding football of the competition.
Compare that to England, where the only consistency has been that they've given the ball away so much.
Sooner or later, a better team will punish them, and it could be today.
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