Ahern is renowned for obfuscating and generally being as clear as mud in his many utterances, but history tells us that when he says something clearly and emphatically, it is worth paying attention. He will be 56 at the time of the next election, so, to take him at his word, he has only one more general election as party leader.

Mary Harney, meanwhile, has ended speculation about her plans by declaring that she will lead the PDs into next year's election, but it is widely believed within the party that she will stand down as leader at some point in the next Dail.

Isn't that something the opposition can make capital out of?

General elections here are becoming increasingly presidential in style, focusing on party leaders, so you would imagine the opposition would capitalise on this . . . if they have their act together.

Think what the Tories or the Labour party in Britain would do with that kind of material. The potential for 'you're voting for Ahern and Harney, but you will really get Cowen and McDowell' style advertising is obvious. Cowen and McDowell are both formidable politicians, but neither would attract the same kind of popularity ratings as their current leaders.

One of the government's strongest cards in next year's election will be that they alone can guarantee continuity. They can point to nine years of unprecedented economic growth and prosperity and warn the electorate about the risks of changing a winning formula. But the opposition can now counter with the argument that the tried-and-trusted formula will be changing anyway because within two or three years there will be a new taoiseach and tanaiste in place anyway.

So is it all downside for the government?

Not necessarily. Negative campaigning always carries a risk . . . remember the backlash to the spinning against Mary McAleese in the 1997 presidential election, which McAleese went on to win comfortably. And there is an argument that an opposition campaign focusing on who will lead a Fianna Fail/PD government could also backfire.

For starters, it is probably not good politics to spend an election campaign talking about your opponents. But also Bertie Ahern is the most popular political leader the country has known since Jack Lynch and it could just play into the government's hands if the opposition parties make the election about Ahern's leadership. They might try and get across the message that Bertie Ahern is not staying around, but if it is perceived by the electorate as negative campaigning against Ahern, it could work in the Taoiseach's favour.

The same holds for Mary Harney, who remains well-regarded and trusted by the electorate. Voters are also, in the main, a rational bunch. They understand that succession has to happen at some point. Every Fianna Fail leader other than de Valera and Bertie Ahern took over the job of taoiseach mid-term . . . the world didn't stop spinning on its axis.

Who is likely to succeed Bertie Ahern?

Three names are most commonly mentioned in Fianna Fail as successors to the current Taoiseach: Brian Cowen, Dermot Ahern and Mary Hanafin . . . in that order.

Cowen is the odds-on favourite and if a vote was held in the morning would probably come out on top, but that could change.

Nobody doubts Cowen's enormous talent and intellect, but there are those who have reservations about whether his nononsense, sometimes stern image will appeal to the wider electorate.

Hanafin's elevation to leadership contender is surprising given that she has only been a cabinet minister since 2004. But she is savvy, personable, hard-working and an excellent TV performer. Her time could well come, but it is more likely to be the leadership contest after next.

When will the contest take place?

If the Rainbow coalition wins the general election, Ahern will probably resign as party leader almost straight away and, by this time next year, a new Fianna Fail leader will be in place. If Fianna Fail is back in government with the PDs or Labour, Ahern would certainly stay on. However, in order to give a new leader time to contest the following general election, Ahern would have to stand down by 2010 at the latest.

And who is likely to succeed Mary Harney?

Again three names are mentioned: Michael McDowell, Liz O'Donnell and Tom Parlon . . .

and again in that order. All three have major question marks hanging over them and, unlike with Fianna Fail, any contest is likely to be hugely divisive and damaging to the party. It's hard to imagine either McDowell or O'Donnell staying on if the other was party leader. So, it's no surprise that the vast majority of PD councillors want Mary Harney to lead them into the next election and beyond.

McDowell is the front-runner to succeed Harney and, despite all the negative publicity surrounding him in recent weeks, would probably come out on top if a contest was held now. The undisputed intellectual force of the party, his credentials make him the obvious choice. However, there are those in the party who doubt his judgement and question whether he is suitable for leadership.

Liz O'Donnell is a polished performer whose liberal instincts would appeal to voters beyond the typical PD constituency, but there are those in the party who question her hunger for the top job.

Tom Parlon was being actively talked about three years ago as a potential leader . . . particularly given the number of new members he brought to the party, which could be crucial in a leadership contest.

However, few now believe he will be the next leader, although he could have a key role as kingmaker . . . assuming of course he holds his seat in the next general election. Of the three, Parlon's seat looks the most vulnerable. Don't rule out the prospect of somebody else emerging as a compromise candidate in the leadership race.

When will the contest take place?

Impossible to say, other than to state that it will happen when Mary Harney wants it to.

Recent events have ensured that Harney will certainly lead the PDs into the next election.

As with Ahern, much will depend on the outcome of that election. If the PDs are back in government, Harney will stay on as leader for a period of up to three years. If the PDs are sitting on the opposition benches, it is impossible to see Harney wanting to stay on.