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Is anyone really interested in a summer general election?



Does anybody really want a general election now?

Politicians are the people who least like elections. If truth were told, their preference would be to consult the voters as little as possible. Election candidates meet a variety of responses . . . politeness, indifference and anger. In general the public are polite. They answer their doors, take the leaflets, and nod in agreement. But when they shut those doors they laugh out loud at the fools . . . some well meaning, others less so, but fools nonetheless . . . who have come begging for votes.

Day one of every election sees every candidate being promised sufficient support to secure a successful outcome. The voters lie. And when they don't lie to get the candidate off their doorstep, they give out. The state of the health services, the price of goods in the shops, safety on the streets, that pothole that needs fixing. It's no wonder politicians don't like elections.

Any politician who says otherwise is either a masochist or shares a quality with the people they represent . . . they're lying.

Were Fine Gael and Labour serious about wanting a general election to be called now?

As the Dail debated the motion calling for an immediate general election it took the independent TD from Cavan-Monaghan to expose the emperor parading in the chamber without his clothes. After three hours of debate, Paudge Connolly rose to make his contribution. He described the call for a general election as "an unlikely event". Finally, an honest man spoke. "I do not detect any real desire for a summer election. If we held a straw poll on the government side, or on the opposition side, it would show that nobody wants a summer election. This call for a summer election is akin to whistling past the graveyard."

So was the call for an early election just a clever publicity stunt?

The private members motion from the Labour party and Fine Gael garnered good headlines and soft coverage. It was the final week of the Dail before a three month summer break and as such a good opportunity to attack the government's record.

"This arrogant, tired and fractured administration has lost initiative and coherence and has descended into aimless drift, " was the conclusion of Pat Rabbitte and Enda Kenny. They identified 13 areas of failure covering everything from childcare to broadband to penalty points.

The prognosis was that the government had got it wrong in every area. An early general election was the recommended cure. The request was never going to be acceded to by the Taoiseach.

Bertie Ahern is a man of few promises but he has repeatedly committed his government to seeing out its full five-year term in office. Anyway, Ahern would have frightened the bejaysus out of the opposition if he had agreed to their demand.

So what was revealed by the Dail debate?

There was little new in the debate. The opposition told us how bad life is. The government told us how good life is. There was actually considerable common ground . . . both sides agreed life could be better.

Bertie Ahern was dismissive of the emerging alternative on offer from Fine Gael and Labour. "They attack and attack, but they offer absolutely no alternative, policy or substance. If this government does not have instant solutions to all the challenges we face and if, unlike them, we do not have one for everyone in the audience, we do have real, realistic and costed plans that issue by issue are delivering a better and brighter future."

Pat Rabbitte reached into Fianna Fail history to poke fun at Ahern. "It was once said of Sean Lemass that he told the people to mount their camels and their asses and he would lead them to the promised land.

"It was said of Jack Lynch that he told them to light a Camel and sit down on their asses because this was the promised land.

It was said of Charles Haughey that he was raising the price of camels, kicking their asses and mortgaging the promised land.

The present Taoiseach has convinced himself that he personally has brought his people to the promised land, and that our duty is to thank him for it in perpetuity."

And what would happen if there was a general election now?

The campaign for the next general election scheduled is already underway. Bertie Ahern subscribes to the theory of the permanent campaign. For over a year now his diary has been packed with engagements which take him to key constituencies for Fianna Fail. All the other parties have simply followed his lead. The government and opposition no longer govern and oppose, they simply campaign.

And as they do so they are spending money like an election is underway.

There's hardly a bus shelter in the capital that hasn't been adorned in recent weeks with an advert for a general election.

Candidates are trying to increase their recognition factor among the voters. With no spending limits in place until the Dail is dissolved, several million euro is likely to be spent in this pre-election phase.

And who is likely to win?

None of the main political parties can take great succour from the recent batch of opinion polls. The trend in the monthly Red C tracking polls shows Fianna Fail stuck at 35%, well below the 41% achieved at the 2002 general election. Without a serious uplift on polling day Ahern's party is in trouble. But neither Fine Gael nor Labour benefited from Ahern's polling woes. The tracking poll trend figures have both parties marginally above their last general election showings. Their outcome is nothing to get excited about especially if the country is in as poor a condition as the joint Fine Gael-Labour motion suggested.

The conclusion may well be that the poll respondents are not just yet in election mood and have still to indicate their polling day preference. With 10 months to the expected general election date, the politicians can continue to mount their camels and their asses but the public, it would seem, has yet to notice.




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