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Figures from census should see pensions consensus
Aine Coffey



GOOD news at last. Forget house prices, traffic congestion and inflation.

What any optimist would read from the preliminary census figures is it is time to stop listening to doommongering about pensions and spend the summer in celebratory mood. We could be set up for old age if we play it right.

At the rate Ireland's young population is growing, tax receipts are set for an ongoing fillip. At the same time, the CSO estimates just under 10% of the population is now made up of non-Irish nationals.

There is a feeling in the air . . . churlish to call it a sneaky hope from a pension perspective? . . . that many of the migrant workers working so diligently and paying their Irish taxes will not be hanging around until the time comes for the state to support them in their retirement.

Last week's figures revealed that Ireland's population has reached 4.2m, an 8.1% increase since the 2002 census and the highest level since 1861.

They also suggested things are heating up.

IIB chief economist Austin Hughes did some number crunching comparing the figures with annual population estimates for 2005 and previous years. This showed that Ireland's population grew by 2.5% last year, higher than the average of 2% since the last census. Of a 318,000 population increase in the past four years, 104,000 was in the past year.

We haven't known anything like this. Between 1991 and 1996, the annual growth rate was 0.5%. In the late 1980s, the population was falling. The contrast with the rest of Europe is nothing short of bizarre. The Irish population is growing five times faster than the rest of the continent, and it looks as if the population aged 25 to 35 is growing by nearly 6% annually, compared with 0.3% in the eurozone.

This unique population pattern, Hughes suggests, provides a golden opportunity for government to grasp the pensions nettle and come up with a decent long-term initiative. Nine hundred thousand Irish workers are still without a pension. It's a thorny issue.

Earlier this month, the Pensions Board delivered to social and family affairs minister Seamus Brennan a report on an appropriate mandatory pension system for Ireland, should government introduce such a scheme. The report is due to go before cabinet before the summer break.

One thing certain is that employers will staunchly oppose any mandatory scheme, no matter who pays for it. The argument runs that even if employees foot the bill employers will have to compensate them in some way. Bank of Ireland already threw the cat among the pigeons by coming out during the pay talks to announce the abolition of its definedbenefit scheme for new employees. This was not a great pension message from a bank making 1.5bn a year.

The fact that the 25-35 cohort is growing 20 times faster in Ireland than the rest of Europe has other implications of course. For one thing, it supports the claims of vested interests that Ireland's property market is based on reasonable fundamentals.

It now looks as if you may, for the foreseeable future, have to keep on forking out bigger sums for smaller houses. You know that one reason you are stuck in traffic is that a population explosion in the commuter counties around Dublin accounted for one third of the population increase since the last census. But take comfort in the fact there may be a silver lining.

If the government seizes this window, then we mightn't all have to keep working until we are 90.

Cynics might suspect Brennan will long-finger the issue until after the election, but courageous action could head off the kind of pensions imbroglio alarming other economies.




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