The Sunday Tribune has been highlighting the looming crisis since November 2004. Just over a year ago, in May 2005, this newspaper warned:

"There is an elephant plonked in the main lobby of Dail Eireann, but the vast majority of politicians and party strategists seem to be either ignoring it or blissfully unaware of its existence, despite the major impact it is going to have on their future careers. In less than a year's time, a census of population is due to be carried out and the knockon effect of that will be the most radical redrawing of the country's constituencies since the infamous Tullymander three decades ago."

Back then, both the Taoiseach and the Department of Environment reacted to the research published in theSunday Tribune by dismissing it . . .

there would be no changes to constituencies before the general election, they said.

The minister for environment Dick Roche stuck to that line right up to the middle of last week. When last weekend's edition of the Sunday Tribune ran a front-page story warning that the new census figures would "throw general election plans into disarray", Roche remained in default mode: there would be no changes to the boundaries. This was despite detailed forecasts . . . which proved to be highly accurate . . . showing that up to half the constituencies would not meet the constitution's strict requirement of equal representation.

However by Wednesday, Roche had changed tack. He had no choice. When the census figures confirmed what the Sunday Tribune had been saying all along, ministers decided to refer the matter to the Attorney General Rory Brady rather than relying on the advice of the Department of Environment that there was no issue.

This is the third time in as many years that the government has dismissed major concerns about a key electoral issue, only to have to subsequently admit there might be a problem. When questions were raised by technology experts about the safety of electronic voting, the government's first response was to rubbish their concerns. The initial reaction was similar when a Sunday Tribune investigation last year revealed that the electoral register was wrong by up to 800,000. In both cases, the government later had to admit that the concerns were justified. The government . . . and probably the main opposition parties . . . must now be praying that the AG comes back with some reassuring findings. But their hopes could well be in vain.

The revelation that Dublin West has a population in excess of 30,000 people per TD has been the main point of focus since the release of the census figures, and seems to have been the catalyst that forced the government to seek the advice of the Attorney General as to the constitutional necessity of carrying out a boundary revision.

However, ironically, this is the weakest point in the argument for changing the constituencies in advance of the next general election. Article 16.2.2 of the constitution does require that the total number of TDs shall be fixed at between 20,000 and 30,000 people. But legal experts believe that this refers to the national picture and not the ratio at individual constituencies. Almost certainly they are right.

The really crucial constitutional question is article 16.2.3, which requires that every constituency have . . . within reason . . . the same ratio of TD to population. As predicted in last weekend's Sunday Tribune, the preliminary figures clearly show that this constitutional requirement will be breached in almost half of the constituencies at the next general election, unless the boundaries are radically altered.

For example, Dublin West, with three seats, has a population almost 1,500 larger than the four-seat constituency of Cork North-Central. In addition, four-seat Dublin North . . . which also was within a whisker of exceeding 30,000 per TD . . . has a greater population than the five-seat constituencies of Cavan-Monaghan, Dublin South, Dun Laoghaire and Limerick East.

To put it another way, Dublin West is currently under-represented by 21.3% and Dun Laoghaire is over-represented by 10.7% . . . a staggering variance of 32% and a clear and massive breach of article 16.2.3. The figures show colossal under-representation for constituencies such as Dublin West, Dublin North, both Meath East and West, Louth and Kildare South. There is another problem for the government. If, as seems likely, Dublin West's breaching of the 30,000 people per TD ratio was what prompted the cabinet to seek the AG's advice, then the main thrust of the government's argument against revising the constituencies has been undermined. Roche and a succession of Fianna Fail TD's have maintained that the census figures have no standing because they are 'preliminary'. But if that is the case, why are they concerned about Dublin West breaching the 30,000 per TD ratio? After all the figures are only preliminary. So why the need to refer it to the AG?

In fact, by making the referral the government is, by definition, accepting the accuracy and relevance of the preliminary population figures . . .

thereby bringing into play Article 16.2.3, which requires equality of representation.

It is also pointless for the government to argue about precedent, as it has attempted to do.

There simply is no precedent in the state for such an enormous explosion of population, particularly when it is heavily concentrated in constituencies contained within the greater Dublin area. Threequarters-of-a-million people live in constituencies that are under represented by at least 5%.

It is untenable that the population of these constituencies has no foreseeable prospect of equality of representation, as demanded by the constitution, should there be no immediate revision of the boundaries.

As predicted in this newspaper last Sunday, the majority of politicians have chosen self interest over the constitutional rights of the people. The two largest parties, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, have demonstrated those rights are a distant second to the disruption of their election plans.

The Attorney General will give legal advice that will determine the next stage in this crisis. That is unlikely to be the end of the matter. Even if that advice results in the government, supported by the main opposition party, ignoring the impact of the census figures, a constitutional challenge is inevitable.

This is heading for the courts.