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INSIDE POLITICS
By Kevin Rafter



Seven steps to electionheaven

THE cabinet meets this week and for one final time tomorrow week at Avondale in Co Wicklow before a month-long August break. Bertie Ahern will not need to remind the troops that this will be their final opportunity for some relaxation time before the nine-month slog to next year's general election. Ahern himself won't need reminding that without an upswing in his party's fortunes he may well be facing into an extended holiday next summer. Yet, despite Fianna Fail woes in the opinion polls, the very fact that after nine years in power the party still has a chance of returning to office is in itself remarkable.

There are a number of things Ahern could do to ensure he's enjoying the trappings of power after polling day. So here's the summer advice:

1.Instruct his cabinet colleagues to enrol in the Willie O'Dea School of Politics . . . continually blitz their constituency voters but always be ready to defend the government's interests. Too many slackers at the cabinet table may eventually cost this government its chance of re-election.

2.Put an arm around Michael McDowell's shoulder and remind him he's still very much part of the government family. Civil war in the PD ranks is bad for the government and a disgruntled justice minister is a serious liability.

3.Put an arm around Brian Cowen's (below) shoulder and remind him to smile. The finance minister continues to act the role of Ebenezer Scrooge when the public finances point to the need for a Santa Claus response.

4. Don't blow the December budget. Claims that the next election is being 'bought' may be taken seriously by the voters who'll take umbrage at being treated as fools.

5.Wrap a giveaway December budget up in austerity clothing. [See 3 and 4 above. ] Income tax reductions.

They'll keep the greedy middle class contented.

6.Put an arm around Cyprian Brady's shoulder and gently ease him off the party ticket in Dublin Central. To be back in power, Ahern has to deliver two seats in his own constituency. The current three-candidate strategy will leak votes and lead to a seat loss. Local councillor Mary Fitzpatrick is Ahern's best chance of holding two seats. So Brady has to go the way of brother Royston. Nothing personal, just politics, lads.

7.Keep kissing the babies and shaking the hands because for everyone that's missed, Enda will pop up to remind the voters that he's the alternative.

NEGOTIATIONS on the Blaney organisation's return to Fianna Fail moved up a gear last week. Noel Dempsey has been charged with getting all sides on board and he's now met with the main personalities involved.

Representatives from Independent Fianna Fail and the Fianna Fail organisation in Donegal North East are now expected to meet shortly. That should be an interesting occasion. The official FF members have also requested a meeting with Bertie Ahern with the need for a Letterkenny-based candidate top of their agenda.

And just as one political schism is nearing an end in Donegal another has emerged. Jimmy Harte (below), a son of former Fine Gael minister Paddy Harte, is expected to officially declare as an independent candidate in the three-seat constituency in the coming weeks. The Hartes have fallen out with Fine Gael over the party's decision to opt for a singlecandidate strategy in Donegal North East with Senator Joe McHugh.

All the recent movement in the constituency has taken attention away from Sinn Fein's Padraig MacLochlainn who must be increasingly confident of being a member of the next Dail.

Peace process under threat . . . from Tony Blair's republican past

PETER Hain (right) was busy last week reminding the politicians in Northern Ireland that their perks will be removed if they fail to get a functioning government working at Stormont by 24 November next. The DUP has thus far shown little interest in agreeing to work in a new assembly with Sinn Fein.

Another reason for Paisleyite opposition may have emerged last week from an unlikely source.

It seems Tony Blair has been a long-time reader of the pages of the republican newspaper, An Phoblacht. Blair's reading material in his Oxford University days seemingly included the newspaper which propagates the views of Sinn Fein and the IRA.

According to newly released information from the archives of the Junior Common Room (JCR) at St John's College in Oxford, one Anthony Blair tabled a motion calling for a subscription to be taken out with An Phoblacht.

"From memory, he was teased mercilessly for the [An Phoblacht] one, " David Renton, a historian who has viewed the archives, told the London Independent newspaper last week.

Renton couldn't be contacted to confirm whether the subscription was ever taken out or whether the JCR, like the DUP, just said no.




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