WELL, it's straightforward, isn't it? Has been since 25 June; Dublin and Armagh for 17 September, and Kerry, as Jack might put it, for the "f***n bothar" on 5 August.
Except it isn't. It never is.
Cork have replaced Armagh as the meanest defensive unit in the country; to beat them you'll have to score at least 1-10 and who's going to do that? Mayo have their bad shooting day out of the system and next day will have Trevor Mortimer fit to start and Austin O'Malley and David Brady fit to come on. Galway won't win the All Ireland but with Derek Savage back and Padhraic Joyce overdue a big performance, they're the one team capable of beating the Dubs at their own game. Above all there is Kerry. Kerry, lest we forget, who are National League champions, Kerry, who are proud, wounded and dangerous. Last year's All Ireland champions lost a provincial final replay. The same could yet be said about this year's.
After last year's All Ireland final, it was fashionable to claim that the outcome hinged on both teams' respective passages to that decider. Tyrone's was unprecedented in its difficulty;
Kerry, in contrast, hadn't been "tested". This year Kerry have been tested. Contrary to Joe Brolly's belief, the two Munster finals met, and at times surpassed, the intensity levels of the Ulster final. Kerry were tested by Galway in the league final.
And next Saturday they will be tested if ultimately left unscathed by Longford in Killarney.
The question is: have Armagh really been tested?
All they've beaten so far is teams who played either last year or this year in Division Two. Monaghan are game out but it didn't take Wexford two games to beat them. Fermanagh are a genuine top-10 team but still not as good as the Mayo and Cork teams that Kerry rolled over in Croke Park last summer.
Donegal are promising but no more promising than the Cork side Kerry also beat by a goal in a provincial final last year. Although it's the least Armagh deserved after landing the greatest provincial title in football history last year, the truth is Armagh won a "handy" provincial title this year. They won a handy one in 2004 too, handier than the one Kerry claimed that year anyway. If Fermanagh could beat Armagh in Croke Park that year, then Kerry can beat them there this year. As much as Dublin radiate the sense of mission Armagh did in 2002, Kerry are still the team best designed to stopping Armagh.
It comes down to Kerry's capacity to regroup and reinvent themselves.
It's something Armagh have been masters of under Joe Kernan, and something Kerry made a good fist of after they were beaten by Cork in a replay in 2002. It might mean dropping some big names. In 2002, it meant benching John Crowley, who was just coming off a career year; this year, it could involve the demotion of either Eoin Brosnan or Declan O'Sullivan, with the other manning the number 11 spot. It might again involve the promotion of Sean O'Sullivan and for sure the return of Mike Frank Russell. It will definitely again involve keeping faith with Gooch, who actually played well but just shot terribly last week.
Owen Mulligan turned his summer round last year. You think the Gooch can't this year?
The really bold move though could be the redeployment of Kieran Donaghy. Last Sunday Jack O'Connor (right) admitted to reporters that Kerry needed a primary ball winner inside. Last Thursday in a training Tommy Griffin lined up with Darragh O Se in midfield as Donaghy took Mike McCarthy for a couple of goals and points and linked up with Russell and Cooper as sweetly as he used to with Smallwood and O'Hea on the hardwood for Tralee Tigers.
It'll be a gamble alright but then so was both championing Bryan Sheehan and discarding Mike Frank a year too soon. O'Connor had a league title to show for that experiment. He might yet have an All Ireland to show for his latest. Kerry were always going to have to learn the hard way the loss and value of Liam Hassett and Dara O Cinneide. O'Connor has and he's rallied the troops well this past week. Once again they're united and once again seething with a point to prove, especially to a Kerry public who abandoned them last Sunday.
That public will surely return. It surely should. Bar some divine and Barden intervention next Saturday, Kerry and Armagh will meet in Croke Park on Saturday week. The last time these two teams met in the championship, they produced one of the greatest games of all time. The last time the sides met, Kerry got their defensive match-ups completely wrong; this time surely McCarthy will take Ronan Clarke, Marc O Se, Oisin and Tom O'Sullivan, Stevie McDonnell. The last time they met, though we tend to forget, Kerry gave the Armagh defence the most torrid 35 minutes it has ever endured under Joe Kernan. More, this will probably be the last time either Kieran McGeeney and Paul McGrane or Seamus Moynihan and Darragh O Se play in Croke Park.
When will Armagh or even Kerry see their likes again?
Not only is it the game that could define this year's All Ireland; right now for anyone who loves football, it is much bigger than that.
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