YOU can bet Nicolae Ceausescu never thought the day would come. Neither, probably, did many Irish.
In the past two weeks Moritz Holdings, owned by developer Michael Whelan, has agreed to spend an estimated 60m to develop an office and apartment complex in the Piata Victoriei area of the Romanian capital, Bucharest.
Another major development firm, Belfast-based Parker Green, headed by Gerard O'Hare, said last week that it had recently acquired a site in Trnava, Slovakia, where it intends to build a 259bedroom hotel, while it is planning a cinema and leisure centre on another site in Slovakia.
The two developers join a growing wave of Irish property moguls keen to capitalise on what have long been seen as generous returns in Eastern Europe.
Other high-profile investors include Derek Quinlan, Sean Quinn, Tony Kilduff, Sean Mulryan, Paddy Kelly of Kelland Homes. and John Moriarty, who developed the National Aquatic Centre.
While the initial focus for investors was well-heeled Prague, rising land prices there are forcing them to look further afield to find bargains.
"In the past two years in the Czech Republic, the price of land has gone to about 30% of the post-development value, " said John Moriarty, who heads up Landsdowne Real Estate. "The market there is quite liquid and it's difficult to get in on the bottom rung. I still have a couple of sites in Prague, but more recently I've bought about 150 acres in Bulgaria."
Moriarty has bought sites in the skiing district in Bansko, and has so far received about 20m from Irish investors willing to let Moriarty and his local Bulgarian business partners lead a charge in property investment in the country.
Still, a 2005 PriceWaterhouseCoopers pan-European survey of property investors and financiers found that 65% of recommended buying retail property in Prague, while 23% suggested holding and just 13% recommended selling. The city has the second-highest buy rating within 27 European countries, just behind Milan. Dublin is rated lowest, with only a 21% buy recommendation.
That said, the PWC report states:
"The risk for Prague is that yield convergence towards the levels of main EU cities has come far too fast."
One source interviewed for the report said that Prague had the most "accelerated yield compression" he had ever seen.
Other Irish developers, such as Platinum Developments, headed by Declan Lennon, have also targeted newer prospects in Bulgaria. Also building in Bansko, the company has managed to edge in ahead of a recent local government decision to prevent any further construction in the town until infrastructure development can catch up.
Platinum Development's sales director, Aaron Tracey, said last week that the company is currently building 320 apartments in the ski resort town. Almost all have been pre-sold.
Chasing higher yields, or even maintaining existing ones, means that Irish investors are quickly spreading their tentacles across Eastern European.
Rising interest rates are perhaps making that process more rapid than would otherwise be the case.
John Moriarty believes that, while another one point rise in interest rates will easily be absorbed, anything more than that is likely to cause some investors, at least, to reconsider putting their money into the former satellite states of the Soviet Union. But the push east is likely to bypass some countries.
Moldova and Ukraine, for example, are countries that Moriarty says don't have economies performing strongly enough to warrant investment at the moment.
Other serial investors brush aside suggestions that rising interest rates will have an impact on the Irish property investment appetite.
The ever-optimistic Paddy Kelly of Redquartz and the Prem Group, takes the view that rising interest rates will do nothing to quell demand. He is exploring opportunities in Eastern Europe, but is unwilling to go into the details yet.
With a track record of large-scale developments in Ireland and abroad, Kelly thinks that just about anywhere is ripe for investment . . . as long as it's the right one.
"We have to stop thinking about boundaries, " he said last week. "It's interesting also that the Irish abroad are becoming more collective, getting involved in deals."
There are few signs yet, though, of Irish investors engaging in profit taking.
Hugh Campbell, a director of the real estate group at PriceWaterhouseCoopers, said the Irish investment cycle is still in its infancy.
"A few developers have sold assets, but it's not something that's happening on any large scale, " he pointed out. Rather, he said, the focus is switching from primary to secondary cities, such as Posnan and Wroclaw in Poland. Land banks are being amassed in much the same way as Irish developers did in Ireland back in the 1970s and '80s.
"But there's no fixed formula for many investors as to where to put their money, " Campbell said. "Sometimes the heart rules the head and investors might plump for one country simply because they have married a local or have visited on holiday. You'll find that investors will disagree with each other as to which country offers the best possible return."
The Irish invasion now stretches from the Baltic to the Black Sea, and nothing is off limits, he added.
Despite John Moriarty's misgivings about some former states of the USSR, Campbell says Irish scouting trips are already happening in countries such as Uzbekistan, where healthy oil and gas industries, combined with growing expat populations, are proving a lure for developers.
Paul McNieve, managing director of Hamilton Osborne King, believes that growing Irish interest even further east is a sign of things to come. "I think that within 18 months you're going to see many of the big-name Irish developers working on projects in China, for instance."
One industry source also pointed out that nationality can have a lot to do with how much property will cost. "In Eastern Europe, they love to see the Irish and Israelis coming, " he said. "It might add on between 10% and 15% to the cost of the asset."
Michele Jackson, investment director with DTZ Sherry Fitzgerald, said investors have been increasingly going into Eastern European countries with local partners who can "add the angles" and help steer them through the investment landscape.
"We're seeing a lot more of that, " she said. "They'll generally have a five or six year take on an investment, but at the same time will sell up quicker if there's an opportunity to do that."
Jackson added that inexperienced investors should be careful about going into countries such as Romania. However, the appeal is the same as it is for more seasoned investors who have already built solid asset bases . . . perhaps in the US or UK. Countries such Romania and Bulgaria may be more risky, but the potential upside could be significant.
The Irish love affair with property has now gone truly global. Even the wallflowers are getting asked out on dates.
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