Shaky to say the least. Harney and the PDs have endured a horrendous few months. The Tanaiste has continued to find that there are no quick fix solutions to the intractable problems at the Department of Health; Michael McDowell has had a rough time of it in the Department of Justice and, worst of all, the party very publicly washed its dirty laundry a few weeks back when an unseemly spat between Harney and McDowell over the leadership was played out in the media.

It can't have come as much of a surprise when a recent opinion poll showed the PDs at a miserable 2%. Harney herself seemed to be at the end of her tether when she (understandably enough) reacted emotionally to an unfounded story in a Sunday newspaper that she had used her influence as health minister to secure an early operation for her mother at Tallaght hospital. All in all, the Tanaiste must have been hugely relieved to lock the door of her office last week and head off for a spot of much needed R&R with her husband Brian.

Parties often go through bad patches but, as Harney herself once commented, doesn't the electorate quickly forget?

The electorate does quickly forget even the most serious calamities, but there can be no underestimating the PDs' problems with a general election less than 10 months away.

For starters both Harney and McDowell are in the two government departments that seem to involve permanent fire fighting. Brian Cowen famously likened Health to Angola because of the number of exploding landmines, and Justice isn't far behind. That means Harney and McDowell spend more time dealing with damaging controversies and less time building the party for the next general election. That might be manageable if the party was united, but it clearly is not.

The leadership issue may no longer be front-page news, but it hasn't gone away and is still bubbling below the surface.

Both Harney and McDowell were damaged by the story, with the latter furious at how, he felt, he was led up the garden path over the leadership. Morale in the party has been seriously damaged by the affair.

There is also a wider problem in that for the first time in its history, there are two distinct PD wings . . . hardly desirable in a small party. On the left are the liberals, led by Liz O'Donnell and including the likes of John Minihan and new recruit Colm O'Gorman. On the right is Michael McDowell, who is believed to be backed by Galway West TD Noel Grealish and Senator Tom Morrissey. In the middle is Harney.

On the whole, she has proved an impressive leader but, after almost a decade as Tanaiste, she wouldn't be human if she wasn't running out of steam a bit. It is widely believed she will not want to serve another full Dail term as party leader. The next leadership contest is likely to prove, ahem, interesting but perhaps not as, ahem, interesting as the aftermath of that contest.

What are the PDs' prospects in the next general election?

Hard to say. A year out from the 2002 election many people believed the party was going down the swanee. But then Harney managed to produce two big-name candidates in Tom Parlon and the returning Michael McDowell and, after a really professional and effective campaign, the party ended up doubling its seat total and securing an extra seat at the cabinet table.

However, right now, only three of the party's eight TDs look safe: Harney, Michael McDowell (presuming he stands) and Noel Grealish. Mae Sexton has a real uphill battle to retain her seat in the new constituency of Longford-Westmeath, while Liz O'Donnell, Fiona O'Malley, Tom Parlon and Tim O'Malley are probably in 50:50 territory.

O'Gorman, standing in Wexford, looks the best hope among the other candidates, but the party is believed to be sounding out other potential big-name candidates. A final haul of between four and seven seats looks the most likely scenario . . . although to achieve the upper end of the scale would require a serious revival in the government's fortunes.

Obviously seven seats would be a good return but if the party ends up with just four or five seats would that be a disaster?

It depends on the make-up of the Dail. In 1997, the PDs had a nightmare election, ending up with just four deputies. But that was enough to go into government with Fianna Fail, so the party's future was secured. The PDs have two chances of getting into government after the next election (and no, one of them is not 'feck all').

It could once again join up with Fianna Fail, possibly with the support of independents, or be included as part of an ABFF (Anybody but Fianna Fail) grand coalition. Both options would be described as possible, rather than probable. However, if the PDs end up in opposition with just four or five TDs, it would raise serious question marks about the future of the party, particularly with a highly divisive leadership contest to come.