THE fact that interest rates have been rising in Europe is hardly news, nor is a secret that at least two more hikes are expected before the year is out. Not since the start of the property boom have so many people been speculating about the future success of the market . . . but, at least in the commercial property market, probably very little will change simply because the ECB chooses to tighten rates by a point or two.
"There are a number of factors that differentiate property investors from other investors, " said John McCartney, an economist with Lisney.
"Firstly, there is the illiquidity of property, and existing investors are unlikely to withdraw money in the short-term to respond to interest rates (whereas they can trade equities with the touch of a button). Secondly, many investors, especially in commercial property, are cash rich and less likely to be affected by higher costs of financing. But above all this, there are relatively few other places where people can put their money, and while higher interest rates are making everything less attractive, the IPD index still shows that total returns from property outstrip all other forms of investment."
It is certainly true that property investment tends to be a longer-term proposition, and that incumbent investors are usually well aware of the cyclical nature of finance.
New entrants may be more nervous of the property market and may look towards cash in a rising rate environment, but cash still has a long way to go if it is to catch up with the returns that have been possible through property. But overall, people will have to put their money somewhere, and property remains a good option.
Still, even if you ignore the specific nature of commercial property investment, McCartney believes the future may not be as bleak as some people are pointing out.
"The consensus view on interest rates is that most people are expecting 25 points in October and another 25 points in December, taking us up to 3.5% by the end of the year.
Most commentators have also said that we will see another 0.5% in 2007, taking us to the peak of this cycle.
"But a fair amount of this speculation is thumb-in-theair, and we are receiving mixed messages about German growth. What is clear is that there is some sort of growth embedded in the European economy, and this is likely to increase inflationary pressure . . . although roughly half of this inflation is accounted for by oil."
Indeed, McCartney believes that, because of the prominence of oil in the overall mix, there are three aspects which will reduce inflationary pressure over the coming months.
Firstly, the global price of oil is coming down. Secondly, the base effect means that, while we saw a sharp increase in the price about a year ago, the year on year differential will be diminished thanks to slower inflation. And, perhaps most importantly from a European perspective, the continued depreciation of the dollar against the euro should see further flight of capital from the US, leading to further depreciation, and in turn to Europeans paying a few dollars less for their oil.
"The ECB will probably tighten in October, as it will fit with market expectations, " he said. "After that, it all depends on the news flow.
What Trichet said about the eurozone economy does add substance to the suggestion that we will have a rate hike in October, but significantly, eurozone inflation has dropped since July, and, according to Goodbody, futures markets are pricing lower than the previously anticipated interest rates."
Even with a number of future rate hikes, though, the resilience of property, and especially commercial property, should see it through any rough patches.
"Any rate increase will cause pain, and commercial property is not immune to rate increases, " warned McCartney.
|